GBPUSD: SELL 1.3635, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3575 | 09 Julio 2025

GBPUSD:

Sterling clawed back to 1.3650 after a two-day slide, yet upside momentum is fragile amid another round of tariff threats from Washington. The White House has announced duties of up to 40 percent on imports from fourteen countries; although implementation is deferred to 1 August, the flare-up in trade tensions boosts demand for the dollar as a defensive asset.

Domestic risks compound the pressure on the pound. Treasury data show social-welfare and infrastructure spending running ahead of plan, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves has hinted that the autumn Budget may include higher taxes to cover the shortfall. At the same time, several major banks—including HSBC and Deutsche Bank—forecast three Bank of England rate cuts before year-end, eroding the gilt yield premium over Treasuries.

With external trade headwinds and internal fiscal uncertainty aligned, GBP/USD retains a bearish fundamental backdrop. Barring a major positive surprise from London, the pair is likely to re-test support at 1.3575, while 1.3680 marks the invalidation level for short positions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3635, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3575

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