EURUSD: SELL 1.0780, SL 1.0850, TP 1.0680 | 10 Marzo 2025

Events to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate showed signs of recovery for the fourth consecutive day, but market activity has decreased in anticipation of Friday's crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release. On Thursday, the euro experienced a notable depreciation, pulling back from the 1.0850 level and bringing an end to a three-day upward trend. The EUR/USD exchange rate had a remarkable performance, demonstrating a 4.6% increase from the opening of trading on Monday to the close of the day.

This followed a period of significant rebalancing in currency markets, driven by expectations of a rate cut.According to rate markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates one more time in 2025, following a 25 basis point (bps) cut on Thursday.With the euro facing a much tighter interest rate differential than previously expected, EUR/USD has demonstrated notable strength this week.

Despite ongoing demand for further rate cuts to ease funding and borrowing costs, low inflation in the EU (and now the US following the recent rise in core inflation indicators) limits the ability of central banks to adjust rates.US President Donald Trump has reversed his stance on tariffs, announcing a temporary suspension of tariffs on all goods included in the USMCA agreement he negotiated during his first term. While the Trump administration continues to backtrack on its previous tariff threats, markets are struggling to regain enough risk appetite for an uptrend.On Friday, US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take on greater importance as investors keep a close eye on economic indicators.While the US economy as a whole remains strong, there are signs of weakness in the labour market, and a new wave of inflationary pressures, driven primarily by tariff concerns, is worsening growth forecasts.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0780, SL 1.0850, TP 1.0680

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