EUR/USD falls below 1.0250 due to increased probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. | 13 Enero 2025

EURUSD:

Data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released on Friday reported that non-farm payroll employment (NFP) rose by 256k in December, exceeding market expectations of 160k and beating the revised November figure of 212k (previously reported at 227k).

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in average hourly earnings, fell slightly to 3.9% from 4%.

US labour market data for December is likely to reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on keeping interest rates unchanged in January, which will support the dollar against other currencies. Markets expect the Fed to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its 28-29 January meeting.

In addition, traders expect four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which are expected to occur at each meeting through the summer. ECB policymakers seem to be comfortable with these expectations as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain largely under control.

The head of the ECB and the Bank of France said that interest rates will continue to move towards a neutral rate ‘without slowing down by the summer’ if upcoming data confirm that ‘the pullback in price pressures does not remain in place’.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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