Diverging expectations for Fed and BoJ policy support the yen and put it under some pressure | 18 Septiembre 2024

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 GMT+3. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

USDJPY:

The USD/JPY pair saw a fresh wave of selling during the Asian session on Wednesday, with the pair dropping below 142.00 in the last hour. This reversed some of the gains made overnight and paused the recovery from the lowest level since July 2023, which was reached earlier in the week. Meanwhile, fundamental analysis indicates that the most probable outcome for spot prices is a decline, although market participants may exercise caution in placing aggressive wagers ahead of pivotal central bank events.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision following its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with expectations that it will commence its policy easing cycle. The market will then turn its attention to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy update on Friday, which will play a pivotal role in influencing the Japanese Yen (JPY) and provide fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, cautious market sentiment and diverging expectations of future policy from the Fed and BoJ are driving safe-haven flows towards the JPY, exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY.

The market is pricing in the likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. This has the effect of overshadowing Tuesday's better-than-expected US retail sales data, which is not helpful for the US dollar (USD) in consolidating an overnight rebound from the 2024 low. Conversely, recent indications from Bank of Japan officials point towards a further interest rate increase by the Japanese central bank before the end of the year. This has been a significant contributing factor to the recent relative rise in the Japanese Yen, which has helped to create a favourable tone around the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the JPY bulls appeared to remain undaunted by Japan's trade data for August, which revealed a notable decline in both exports and imports. Official data indicates that Japan's exports have risen for the ninth consecutive month, with an increase of 5.6% year-on-year in August. However, this growth is occurring at a slower pace than anticipated. This was accompanied by a much smaller-than-expected 2.3% rise in imports, which had little impact on the underlying bullish sentiment around the Japanese Yen. This indicates that the outlook for the USD/JPY pair in the near term is negative and supports the likelihood of a continuation of the recent downtrend.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

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