Euro fluctuates ahead of major dollar news events | 05 Septiembre 2024

Events to watch out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Index of Business Activity in the Services Sector

EURUSD:

EUR/USD trades close to 1.1080 during the Asian session on Thursday.

The dollar weakened after the publication of the July JOLTS report on the number of open job vacancies in the US, which failed to meet expectations and pointed to a further slowdown in the labour market. Job openings fell to 7.673 million in July, down from 7.910 million in June. This is the lowest level since January 2021 and below market expectations of 8.10 million.

Traders are now awaiting the release of ISM services PMI and US initial jobless claims scheduled for Thursday. On Friday, attention will shift to US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for more information on the potential size of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) expected rate cut this month.

Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the Fed is in a favourable position, but added that it should not maintain restrictive policy for too long, according to Reuters. FXStreet's FedTracker system, which rates the tone of Fed officials' speeches on a dovish to hawkish scale of 0 to 10 using a proprietary artificial intelligence model, rated Bostic's words as neutral with a score of 4.6.

In the eurozone, the producer price index rose 0.8 per cent month-on-month in July, the biggest increase since December 2022. This followed an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June and was well above market forecasts of 0.3%. However, the eurozone services PMI fell to 52.9 in August from 53.3 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the composite PMI fell to 51.0, missing expectations and below the previous reading of 51.2, which was expected to be unchanged.

The Euro could face trouble amid strong speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in September. This would be the ECB's second interest rate cut since it began to move towards policy normalisation in June. Policymakers remain confident that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target by 2025.

Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.1110, if the level is fixed above we take Buy positions, if the level bounces back we take Sell positions.

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