16 May 2024, EUR/USD
An event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits
EURUSD:
The EUR and USD pair showed gains on Wednesday approaching 1.0900 and posting its fourth consecutive weekly rise. Broad market selling pressure deflated the US Dollar (USD) after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell more than investors expected.
US CPI inflation fell to 0.3% for the month, below median market forecasts that expected a steady 0.4%, and sparked a risk-on rally in the broad market as sentiment further strengthened on hopes of an upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to CME's FedWatch tool, betting markets estimate a more than 70% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least a quarter point at its September meeting.
Final European gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter was broadly in line with expectations: Q1 GDP came in at 0.3% QoQ, in line with forecasts and the previous quarter's growth. For the rest of the week, only mid-single-digit data is released on both sides of the Atlantic, and markets are looking longingly at whether the Fed will cut interest rates at the end of the third quarter.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0905. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0870.
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