The calm before the storm | 20 Septiembre 2023

EURUSD trading plan:

An eerie calm in U.S. Treasuries seems at odds with uncertainty about the end of the harshest tightening cycles in decades - but it's a lifebuoy for wider markets fearful of draining liquidity. Even though 10-year Treasury yields are clocking 15-year highs, visibility on medium-term growth, inflation, oil prices and government debt is foggy and the Federal Reserve remains coy about the precise end of its 18-month rate squeeze - bond market volatility has plummeted over the past month. The closely watched MOVE index of implied volatility in U.S. Treasury securities across the maturity spectrum plumbed its lowest level last week since the Fed started hiking rates in March of last year.

Investment idea: sell 1.0715 and take profit 1.0645.