The higher for longer | 29 Agosto 2023

GBPUSD trading plan:

One of the overarching market themes this year - aside from the hype around artificial intelligence - has been investors avidly building up bets on the Federal Reserve finally announcing an end to its cycle of rate hikes, only to have that optimism dashed. There's no doubt that the U.S. central bank is nearing the end of its mission to wrestle down inflation. Headline consumer price pressures are rapidly abating, thanks to a wholesale retreat in food and energy prices. Headline inflation in July rose 3.2% on an annual basis - a far cry from last June's 9.1% - and nearing the Fed's 2% target. And crucially, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has once again reinforced the "higher for longer" mantra that has underpinned most of his, and his officials', communications this year, no matter how much market participants have bet otherwise.

Investment idea: sell 1.2640 and take profit 1.2550.