The rising uncertainties | 26 May 2023

USDJPY trading plan:

The Bank of Japan will likely maintain its yield curve control (YCC) policy until at least next year, as expectations for a near-term policy shift by new governor Kazuo Ueda subside. At his first policy meeting in April, Ueda kept the central bank's ultra-low rates unchanged citing a lack of confidence about the outlook for its 2% inflation target's achievement and announced a "broad-perspective review" of past policies. July could be the last chance before the U.S. economy may head to a recession later this year, which makes it difficult for the BOJ to revise YCC. If the U.S. default actually were to happen, the impact would be unfathomable - the BOJ, if not carrying out additional easing measures, must pause for a while to monitor how the events unfold.

Investment idea: sell 139.90 and take profit 139.15.