The Phillips curve | 20 Febrero 2023

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The US and other industrialized countries may be able to bring inflation down without triggering the huge jumps in unemployment that economists may have predicted prior to the pandemic, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The research examines the Phillips curve – a measure of the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment – for 29 countries in the seven years before Covid-19 and the six quarters of pandemic recovery for which there is data, beginning in January 2021. The authors found that in each country, including the US, the curve steepened, meaning that a decline in inflation is leading to a smaller increase in unemployment than it did before the public health crisis.

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