The positive outlook from the European Commission | 13 May 2021

EURUSD trading plan:

The latest EU Commission survey results suggest that activity in the EU economy has already moved up gear in recent months. As containment measures are gradually relaxed and the impact of the RRF kicks in, economic activity is set to accelerate in the third quarter, with countries, including those with large tourism sectors, benefitting from the return to quasi-normality of social activities over the summer. Growth is then forecast to remain solid in the last quarter of 2021, bringing EU GDP back to its pre‑crisis level earlier than previously projected. All in all, the EU economy is forecast to grow by 4.2% in 2021 and to strengthen to around 4.4% in 2022 (4.3% and 4.4%, respectively, in the euro area). A stronger-than-previously expected rebound in global activity and trade, and the growth impulse provided by NGEU/RRF, help to explain the brighter outlook for all countries compared to the Winter Forecast.

Investment idea: buy 1.2060 and take profit 1.2144.