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The path of the federal funds rate shifted down

The path of the federal funds rate shifted down | 20 Agosto 2020

20 Agosto 2020, GBP/USD

GBPUSD trading plan:

The market-implied path of the federal funds rate shifted down modestly over the intermeeting period. The corresponding path implied by responses to the Open Market Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants also fell, as the probabilities placed on rate hikes next year and in 2022 declined. Market pricing suggested that the federal funds rate was expected to first rise above the current target range in 2024. Conditions in short-term dollar funding markets were also stable, with overnight rates close to the interest on excess reserves rate. This is a negative signal for the U.S. dollar.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.3057 and take profit 1.3125.

David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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