17 Junio 2020, GBP/USD
GBPUSD trading plan:
U.S. retail sales increased by the most on record in May after two straight months of sharp declines as businesses reopened. Retail sales jumped 17.7% last month, the biggest advance since the government started tracking the series in 1992. Sales dropped a record 14.7% in April. The economy and retail sales have hit the bottom in May and we have a V-shaped first stage of recovery. This is a positive signal for the dollar! A bullish rally in the oil market will have a positive impact on the value of the British currency, as assets are correlated. US production could be 2.8 mb/d lower than at the end of 2019. For Saudi Arabia, the fall will be 0.9 mb/d assuming 100% compliance with the OPEC+ deal and that the extra voluntary cut applies only to June. This is a positive signal for the oil market.
Trading recommendation: range 1.2515 -1.2590.
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