EURUSD: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1530 | 21 يوليو 2025

EURUSD:

The US dollar remains the sole beneficiary of a series of upside macro surprises: June retail sales rose 0.6 % m/m, annual CPI accelerated to 3.6 %, and initial jobless claims fell to a three‑month low. The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy range at 5.25 – 5.50 % through year‑end, lifting 10‑year Treasury yields towards 4.50 %. Against this backdrop, investors rotate into the greenback as the most liquid defensive asset, pushing EURUSD back towards the 1.16 area and making 1.1630 vulnerable to further downside.

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In the eurozone, fundamentals remain soft. German inflation flat‑lined in June, while recent surveys point to stagnation in Italian and Spanish manufacturing. Uncertainty over possible 30 % US tariffs on key EU goods adds to the pressure, with a decision expected by late July. Until the trade outlook clears and the 2‑year Bund‑UST spread (‑215 bp) narrows, upside in the single currency looks limited.

A key support zone sits at 1.1530 – the level where strong corporate import demand emerged in February. A decisive break would reinforce bearish momentum and expose the March lows.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1530

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