USDJPY: BUY 148.40, SL 147.90, TP 149.25 | 18 يوليو 2025

Event to watch today:

17.07 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

Dollar-yen is holding near 148.40 as opposing forces balance: a modest greenback pullback versus higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, with the 10-year note flirting with 1.6 %, its highest level since 2008. The richer JGB yield supports the yen’s safe-haven allure, yet the U.S.–Japan 10-year spread remains wide enough to underpin the dollar.

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Investors have trimmed Fed-tightening expectations: the dovish Beige Book tone and soft PPI reinforce wagers on one or two cuts by year-end. A Reuters poll shows most economists still anticipate no Bank of Japan rate hike before end-2025; the BoJ is merely scaling back JGB purchases, leaving policy ultra-loose.

Tomorrow’s trade-balance release and lingering tariff risk should keep safe-haven flows active, but absent a hawkish surprise from Tokyo, even a modest uptick in U.S. yields could lift USDJPY back toward the 149.25 target.

Trading recommendation: BUY 148.40, SL 147.90, TP 149.25

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