Eurotrend is against Australian retracement | 01 November 2013

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: monthly bar is not closed yet and everything may happen. But all leads to breaking of the upper Bollinger envelope as ADX is growing. It is ten to one that the next middle-term objective of bulls will be 1.4260. 

Upon that, one more preliminary rollback to average's Bollinger band zone is probable (1.3057). If it happens, it can be a promising setup for entrance to purchases before 1.4260, which consists more than 1200 pips.

It is obvious, that one scenario is unlikely to be placed into one bar (that is to say, traders will have to be patient), however, strategy can be already tried on. Also, there is a threat of one more abrupt upwards passover, to 1.4934-1.50. We will give our estimations of it in the next review.

Weekly chart: trend-forming status of ADX and Bollinger breaking as of 1.4260 look as the verdict here. Support is the zone 1.3432, from where one can also track long-signals provided that the week will pull it down.

Daily chart: a strong pressure of ADX, but oscillator is rather tired. We will assume that the pair will go down to the average (1.3607) to get jerry can and will pop off to 1.4260. As daily chart tells us, it will be impossible to avoid retracement from here.

Conclusion: wait for the target 1.4260. No alternative option is seen, just different variations and lines are possible. Main scenario can be considered rollback to 1.3607 and start to 1.4260.

As an alternative option, bulls can at one stroke actuate the point 1.4260 either get deeper than 1.3607 – to 1.3432.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: Bollinger pointer (upper band) indicates 1.6530. This point will necessary be hit. However, a more significant zone (1.70-1.7042) is still above. It is possible that these targets will be actuated as well.

Trend support is based in the zone 1.5740-1.59, where a preliminary retracement can go to and middle-term purchases of “support” type are much expected. Also, 1.85 highly probable, because it markets produce a preliminary retracement, bullish potential will not be exhausted at the point 1.70.

Weekly chart: the pair touched a rather good pivot point placed on current levels, thus, rollback to zone of the average is probable (1.56-1.5743), from where middle-term wave is supposed to start to 1.6530 and further.

Daily chart: bearish convergence confirms our assumption about possible rolling from current levels. Upon that, upper Bollinger band (1.63) remains untested. There “hot heads” may try to take a rollback. It is clear that failure of buyers to keep the pair above 1.56 bullish will diminish bullish outlook.

Conclusion: main scenario is the growth on opening to 1.63, then a rather intensive rollback to 1.56-1.5743, from where I predict the beginning of pair's upward movement to 1.6530 and 1.70 in the medium term.

An alternative option is the growth to 1.6530 from current levels without a special retracement.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: The second month we witness that retracement scenario works as applied to the Bollinger average. Rollback target is still 1.0054, from where bears seem to go on with their black deed on beating of Australian bull.

The situation can only be overwhelmed by breakthrough and holding above 1.0054. In terms of indicators, this option is unlikely to take place, but above we realized that bulls can be supported by ascending Euro trend. In case of reversal, I tend to consider that it will be shaped by the double bottom rather than to be direct (blue scenario). Let's see.

Weekly chart: Details on how 1.0054 will be worked out. It will either touch the point from current levels and go down or rollback from current levels to the Bollinger average (0.9283) and go up to 1.0054.

Daily chart: two supportive points are 0.9495 and 0.9283. Probably, the first one will be worked out.

Conclusion: so, we are waiting for the target of 1.0054 to be worked out. Possible lines: Main plan — roll down to 0.9495 and moving up to 1.0054. Alternative option — either a deeper roll down to (0.9283) and then move up to 1.0054, or scenario of growing to 1.0054 from current levels and start downwards to 0.89.