Monthly: a continued downward phase of the movement in the direction of the middle Bollinger band (2062.8), which, in turn, can turn to a full downward reversal of the index against a well-expressed divergence of the oscillator. If support 2062.8 is broken, the way to the lower Bollinger band (1918.7) will be open.
Weekly: support zone 2062.8 will probably be strong: pressure is against weak parameters of ADX. So far the chart maintainst the bullish structure.
Daily: support is at the lower Bollinger band (2130.1) and bears will become activate only on its breakthrough. So far the price stays within Bollinger envelopes (2130.1-2175.1)
The main scenario - a drop to 2062.8 (we consider this option on breakout below the support 2130.1)
The alternative scenario - flat 2130.1-2175.1
Solutions: sell to 1062.8
Monthly: Bulls still have a positional advantage, because the price is in the upper envelope, plus they can consolidate breakdown of the monthly inside bar made in September. If such a scenario justifies itself, the goal for remaining time of 2016 year will be at 68 dollars per barrel (upper Bollinger band).
This option is hindered by a weak corrective ADX, so the basic expectation is flat at the middle Bollinger band (50.00)
Weekly: intermediate resistance, which may retain buyers - 53.56 (the upper Bollinger band). If this zone is not broken, we may see a return to the middle band (48.34)
Daily: So far, the upper Bollinger band is "lifted" around 54.61 (a ceiling for bulls is there), because the upward movement has no support of the main review indicator ADX.
Expectations: growth to 54.61 and then return to 50.00
1. Buy to 54.61
2. Sales from 54.61 to 50.00
Monthly: downward phase of the movement in the direction of the middle Bollinger band (1206.90), which, in turn, can lead to a deeper medium-term fall, if the support does not withstand
Weekly: weak status of ADX indicates the inability of the price to get below 1206.90. This week the inside bearish bar was closed, which is a serious signal that drop would continue.
Daily: The price is heavily oversold, which makes us expect finalization of 1206.90 and an upward correction towards 1296.02 (middle Bollinger band).
At the same time, the local support area 1230.55 may also provide some demand in gold.
The main scenario - drop to 1206.90 followed by an abrupt upward bounce.
The alternative scenario - touch of 1230.55 and start of an upward correction.
1. Sales from 1206.90
2. Buy from 1206.90
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