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Weekly review of S&P500, gold and oil


Monthly: As you can see, the index is working out a very active bullish momentum of the trend line (simultaneosly punching September's inside bar). But ADX/RSI persistently tells us that upward movement is a correction, and thus, we can expect a turn down not higher than on the level of the upper Bollinger band (2166.3). Of course, full acknowledgment of downward reversal will leave under TL and the bottom Bollinger band (1809.0), which is obviously not a matter of the next week.

Weekly: growth faces strong resistance from the middle Bollinger band (2044.1) Oscillator is growing against ADX, so it is likely that a downward rebound towards the bottom band (1507.7) takes place.

Daily: Here, in turn, there is pressure, so the breakdown/rebound against resistance 2044.1 - are equally probable.


The main scenario - downward rebound from 2044.1 in the direction of 1907.7

Alternative - a break above 2044.1, and growth in the direction of 2166.3


1) Sales from 2044.1 to 1907.1 zone (to enter, it is better to wait an additional signal on younger charts). 2) Buy on a break above 2044.1 to 2166.3 (just need a signal confirming breakdown of resistance 2044.1)



Monthly:  Bulls' attempt to break above the September IB is unsuccessful. Movement of the price under the bottom wall of the inside bar (47.07) enables a new drop of oil in the direction of the overall medium-term target 31.96, which is still highly relevant at this point

Weekly: Bearish IB from the middle Bollinger band is also a purely Southern signal in these conditions. Local support is around the bottom band (41.61)

Daily: meanwhile, we notice local support from the middle Bollinger band (49.44), it may give Brent a chance to recover to 53.01 (the upper band), but due to horizontal status of the envelope (and the overall Southern karma with the two older charts), we can safely assume a further decline to the support 46.38, which, in turn, will create conditions for breakdown of the monthly IB.

Expectations: rise to 53.01, and then beginning of the decline to 46.38


1)Sales from 53.01 to 46.38, 41.61, 31.96 (in the medium run).


Monthly a very active upward movement within the framework of the September IB can tell about a strong potential of the northern movement. The nearest goal - the middle Bollinger band (1219.00). If this level can not withstand, we can see an even stronger recovery of gold to the upper band (1339.55, red arrow).

Weekly: absolutely the same picture. Control resistance - 1219.00

Daily: potential for a local correction to drop to the middle Bollinger band (1144.42)


The main scenario - roll back down to 1144.42, and then bounce up towards the goal of 1219.00

Alternative - a direct growth to 1219.00


1) purchase to 1219.00 are more relevant, but we should keep in mind a possibility of pre-correction to 1144.42. So, it is better to buy from 1144.42. Intraday traders can try to use a roll back down.

Aleksey Panasenko
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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