29 April 2016, USD/JPY
Daily chart: the pair us steadily dropping along the main trend. Support is at 106.81 (the bottom Bollinger band). So far, ADX is not very active, there may be some rebound.
Н4: the is heavily oversold, with ADX close to trend zone. An ambiguous situation, with the upward reversal and continuation of the downtrend as equal probable options.
Н1: bullish convergence of the oscillator is a signal of reversal. But we know that on strong trend movements such signals are often false. Therefore, meanwhile are based on a continued downward movement from resistance 108.00 (middle Bollinger band). Breakthrough of this level will enable an upward reversal with surge to 108.83 and focus on 109.81.
Expectations: The main scenario - an upward rollback to 108.00 followed by a pullback to 106.81
The alternative scenario - finalization of 106.81 and an upward rebound towards 108.00
The fallback scenario - on a breakthrough above 108.00 can enable the upward reversal and growth to 108.83 and 109.81
Trading solutions: find the entry points from 108.00 down to 106.81, plus we can search for the entry points at support 106.81