21 September 2015, EUR/USD
The daily chart: a strong Friday to return to the middle Bollinger band, with equal probability, can either lead to drop to the bottom line (1.1052, blue arrow), or to be swallowed by bulls working out the upper band (1.515). ADX is rising, but so far has not reached the value of the trend, so we stick to dual scenario.
Н4: breakthrough to the bottom envelope. There is a high probability of reaching the bottom Bollinger band (1.1209), from where we can expect a rebound up to the middle line (1.1320)
Н1: and here we have expressed bearish signal - breakdown of the lower envelope, in which we are to sell from the the middle Bollinger band (1.1391) to 1.1209.
Expectations: So, we wait a rollback up to 1.1391 and a further drop to 1.1209.
solutions: We sell from 1.1391 to 1.1209.