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GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold weekly review

USD/JPY weekly Review

GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold weekly review

Technical View:
 
During the previous week, USD/JPY traded with a Bullish bias after reaching the lows of 116.217, the pair traded with higher lows and crossed through three fib levels 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0% and is is currently trading around the 61.8% fib level. as long as the pair trades above the 50.0% fib level, long positions are recommended. Traders trading this pair this week should buy but only up to the level 125.87. Any movements above this level may signal further movements upwards. Furthermore, during the previous week, the pair formed a perfect exhaustion to push the market upwards.
 
Traders trading this pair should also observe closely other pairs such as USD/CHF, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY , NZD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY and The US Dollar Inded. The mentioned pairs and US dollar index, had a strong positive correlation of up to +0.96 with USD/JPY, but had a strong negative correlation with EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and USD/CAD. Thus, only buy USD/JPY if more than half of the positively correlated pairs are showing the same signals and half of the negatively correlated pairs are showing an opposite signal (sell).
 

Traders buying this pair should buy, but up to 125.86, any movements above this level will signal further movements upwards.

GBP/USD weekly review


Technical View:
During the past week, GBP/USD  traded bearish for the later parts of the week. The pair went down and even touched a key support area 1.5337 to form a double bottom. We expect the price to bounce off from the point during this week ending 4th September 2015, otherwise, should the price cross and close below 1.5323, short positions are recommended for the better part of this week but only up to 1.5157. Any movements below this level will signal further movements below.
 
Traders trading this pair should also observe closely other pairs such as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/USD for correlation trading. The mentioned pairs have a very strong positive correlation of up to +1 with GBP/USD but are strongly negatively correlated with other pairs such USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Thus, before buying GBP at 1.5157, ensure that EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/USD are all giving a clear buy signals, on the other hand, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF should be giving clear sell signals
 

Traders buying this pair at 1.5157 should buy but only up to the 23.6% fib level. Any movements above this fib level will signal further movements upwards up to the now resistance trend line. However, should price close below 1.5325, further short positions are recommended. the close below this signal will signal a break below a key level, which means the level could be used again but as a Resistance in the future.

Gold weekly review

GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold weekly review

Technical View:

During the previous week, Gold successfully closed along a major support level 1130.53 to complete part of the triangle formed as shown on the weekly chart. It is anticipated that, as long as the commodity trades above the support level 1130.53, long positions are recommended.

By 4th September 2015, gold will have broke above the upper trend line forming the hypotenuse of the triangle, otherwise, short positions are recommended only up to the level 1130.53. However, if the price of Gold crosses and close above the resistance trend line long positions are recommended. As a caution before buying above this trend line, ensure that,  gold is clearly bouncing above this trend line. If the latter is the case, then we expect gold to move further ahead and bounce off from 38.2% fib level. Otherwise it may break downwards and even lower to 1130.53.
 

Traders trading this pair should observe closely the US dollar index. Gold and the US dollar Index have had a moderate positive correlation for the past week, this correlation is expected to continue. Thus, before you buy Gold at 1130.53, ensure that, at the same time gold is giving a buy signal at 1130.53, US dollar index is also giving a buy signal, and is trading around 94.72

 
Graham Osano
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