Technical analysis report | 28 Noviembre 2014

S&P500

Monthly chart: the upper Bollinger band is based at 2121.0 which is the target of bullish trend. ADX tells about a close final of main movement and speaks for preparation of reversal (or significant correction).  Short signals in the area 2121.0 will be reliable.

Weekly chart: bulls are weaker which is confirmed by divergence. Target 2121.0 is very close, thus, signals for a down reversal may appear.

Day chart: resistance 2080.0 may also create difficulties for growth. Support of uptrend is based at 2020.0 (the middle Bollinger band).

Conclusion: main scenario is a direct growth to 2121.0. Another option is a rollback from 2080.0 to 2020.0 and then moving up to 2121.0

"Brent" oil

Monthly chart: so, almost two months of drop moved Brent to the pivot area   76.71. Now ADX is only moving to its main trend value. Therefore, scenarios of further decline and upper reversal are equally possible.

Red arrow paints downward movement with targets 68.67 and 51.87 (more than one month is required to reach the last target).

Blue arrow describes the plan of moving Brent to correction to the middle Bollinger band (100.00-104.36), whereas a general downward trend will be preserved.

Weekly chart: the contract is hardly oversold. Downward movement from current levels seems problematic. Local resistance 88.47 protects downtrend from the pattern Over&Under (described by blue arrow). The same plan tells to sell from the middle Bollinger band (97.00), take profit in the area of 83.00 and buy as per O&U to the target 100.00). Bears need to get ready to move to 88.47 (red arrow), which will allow them to decline further down to 68.67

Day chart: bullish convergence and resistance in the area of 82.41. In its turn, resistance 88.47 will be hardly pressed. Upon this level is reached, a local bullish pattern Over&Under will be formed (blue arrow with purchases in the wide area 77.00-82.41).

Conclusion: bears are very strong, but serious signs for the upward correction to 88.47 has occurred. But until the point of 86.00 has not been reached, we stick to bearish mode with the target 68.67

Gold

Monthly chart: a strong support from the bottom Bollinger band (1121.31) held the Gold from further decline which was predictable and now growth to 1251.45 (the middle band) is highly probable. There potential of growth to the upper band (1435.00) will be shown.

Weekly chart: convergence of the oscillator on false breakthrough of strong support 1181.30 is an excellent long signal. One more decline to the bottom band (1146.03) is quite possible, but in general it looks like before the reversal.

Day chart: a local resistance 1230.24 (upper Bollinger band) will probably the most likely be able to provoke roll down to 1181.30, from where it is possible to look for good signals to purchases of Gold.

Conclusion:  so, we look for growth to 1230.24, then a roll down to 1181.30, where conservatives will look for long signals whereas aggressive players will start to buy with targets 1251.45 and 1435.00.