Jobless claims is an economic indicator used in fundamental analysis of the Forex market. It shows number of people in the USA, who submitted their initial claim for unemployment benefit. The data on initial jobless claims is published every week on Thursdays at 08:30 a.m EST.
The statistics on other countries is also published on a weekly basis, but at present are less indicative for experts than the US data. In particular, analysts pay attention to Jobless claims figure in Great Britain, which is published at 08:30 a.m at London time.
Since Jobless claims indication is anticipating against real unemployment figures, it is widely used in market analysis and forecast. However, initial claims for unemployment benefits can provide false alerts.
Application of jobless claims indicator
A steady decline of number of jobless claims says about economic stabilization and can tell about consolidation of national currency. Increased number of individuals submitting their claims tells about the opposite. However, this indicator shall be considered along with other economic figures to confirm the signal.
Many analysts consider Initial claims indication not weekly but as 4 weeks' moving average with shifting. It allows to define emerging tendency. Jobless claims can take as prerequisite to Non-Farm Payrolls (shows the number of new working positions in non farm branches for the last month). Therefore, decrease of number of jobless claims says about the possibility of growth of Non-Farm Payrolls, because in the long terms people will be hired. If you consider those two figures with the focus on other economic news, it is possible to provide a rather clear analysis of economic situation in the country and conclude about future way of the price. Under steady growth of number of initial jobless claims, we can tell about unfavorable situation. As a rule, if jobless claims figure is on the point above 500 000, it is considered unfavorable. On average for the last two years this figure was located on the point of 350 000.
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