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Gold begins the week after a sharp decline triggered by reassessment of Fed policy prospects. The probability of a September rate hike has increased, US bond yields have risen, and dollar strength reduces the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit the depth of the correction. However, a sustained recovery will require easing of Fed rate expectations or weaker US labor market data. Until this happens, monetary factors retain their advantage and support the scenario for further XAUUSD decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

#SP500: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

The US stock market enters the week under pressure from rising yields and increased probability of a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns, while higher borrowing costs may reduce the attractiveness of highly valued stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

Focus will be on employment data and new corporate earnings. A strong labor market can strengthen expectations of policy tightening, while weak figures would ease pressure on the index. Until confirmation of a shift in expectations is received, the combination of high rates and geopolitical uncertainty keeps the priority on a #SP500 decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

#BRENT: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

Brent receives support due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Military actions near this key route increase the risk of supply disruptions and bring geopolitical premiums back into quotes, despite dollar strength.

Increased production and partial restoration of sea shipments may limit price rises. The market will also continue to assess inventory levels and demand prospects against the backdrop of tight Fed policy. However, as long as negotiations to stabilize the situation yield no results, the risk of supply disruption remains the main factor and supports the buying scenario for #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

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02.09 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding near the 160 level, where further yen weakness is drawing increased attention from Japanese and US authorities. Rising US Treasury yields and expectations of a hawkish Fed policy are supporting the dollar, but the proximity of this sensitive price zone has noticeably worsened the fundamental factor ratio for continued pair growth.

Local yen momentum is bolstered by expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Statements from the Japanese Finance Minister and the US Treasury Secretary regarding the need for an orderly exchange rate movement add further significance. These signals do not imply inevitable intervention, but they increase the risk of reducing positions betting on further yen depreciation.

The interest rate differential still favors the dollar, so the downside potential for USD/JPY remains limited. However, the market has already largely priced in hawkish Fed expectations, while the probability of BOJ action and the sensitivity of authorities to rates around 160 create a fresh factor favoring the yen. In the current session, priority remains with a corrective decline in the pair.

Trade idea: SELL 159.82, SL 160.12, TP 159.12

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02.09 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

GBPUSD:

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The pound is trading in a narrow range, reflecting the lack of new internal momentum ahead of the release of important US data. The British currency retains some support due to cautious expectations regarding the Bank of England, but the market currently sees no fresh confirmation that would allow GBP/USD to sustainably withstand higher yields in the US.

For the dollar, the main advantage is the strengthening of inflation concerns due to rising energy costs. This backdrop reduces the likelihood of a near-term easing of the Fed's stance and supports expectations of further rate hikes. If US manufacturing sector data does not indicate a sharp deterioration in the economy, demand for the US currency may persist until the end of the session.

The pound's position is complicated by the sensitivity of the British economy to high interest rates and the cost of imported energy. Even with the Bank of England maintaining its hawkish rhetoric, these factors may limit investors' willingness to increase positions in the British currency. The dollar's advantage remains more convincing, so the base scenario allows for a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3544, SL 1.3574, TP 1.3469

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15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD starts the session under moderate pressure as rising oil costs again intensify inflation risks and support US Treasury yields. The euro holds near recent levels, but caution in global markets limits demand for the European currency and enhances the appeal of dollar assets.

The key factor remains the revision of Fed policy expectations following stern signals from the US regulator. The market allows for further rate hikes if inflation remains above target, and upcoming US manufacturing activity data will serve as a test of this scenario. Robust figures could strengthen the dollar's advantage in the current session.

The euro receives some support from improved business activity in select Eurozone countries and expectations of new inflation data. However, these arguments do not yet outweigh the combination of high US yields and tighter Fed expectations. Given the current backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1605, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1525

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USDJPY is holding around the 160 mark amid widening yields between US and Japanese government bonds. Revised Fed rate expectations support the dollar, while the yen remains vulnerable due to the attractiveness of carry trades. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty has not yet led to sustained safe-haven demand for the yen.

A local factor supporting the yen remains expectations of further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Regulator representatives allow for discussion of a rate hike, and yen weakness intensifies inflation risks. At the same time, the prospect of BoJ actions does not yet offset current yield growth in the US, so the direct fundamental advantage remains with the dollar.

The risk of currency intervention limits the pair's upside potential, especially after recent joint actions by Japan and the US. However, the US Treasury assesses current yen fluctuations as orderly, reducing the likelihood of immediate intervention absent sharp acceleration in price movement. With tight Fed expectations and stable market dynamics, the fundamental scenario allows for moderate continued growth in USDJPY.

Trading idea: BUY 160.100, SL 159.600, TP 161.200

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The pound maintains support from the UK's inflationary backdrop, but fails to regain ground against the strengthening US dollar. Rising inflation expectations among British consumers reduce the likelihood of imminent easing by the Bank of England, while simultaneously highlighting the risk that high prices will continue to weigh on domestic demand and economic activity.

Earlier expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England helped GBPUSD rise to multi-month highs, so a significant portion of this factor has already been priced in by the market. Attention has now shifted to the relative hawkishness of the two central banks. Following signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its readiness to continue fighting inflation, US bond yields have risen, and the probability of a September rate increase has noticeably increased.

Within the current session, the dollar's momentum appears stronger than local arguments supporting the pound. The British currency may receive support from persistent inflation, but renewed growth will require new data reinforcing expectations of Bank of England action. Until such confirmation appears, rate hikes in the US and cautious demand for safe-haven assets create conditions for further GBPUSD decline.

Trade idea: SELL 1.35420, SL 1.35870, TP 1.34340

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The euro begins a new trading week under pressure from increased demand for the US dollar. Following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, market participants have raised the probability of monetary policy tightening already at the September meeting. The rise in short-term yields on US bonds supports the dollar and limits the recovery of EURUSD at the start of the European session.

The fundamental backdrop for the single currency remains relatively stable. Inflation in the eurozone has approached 3%, and the market allows for further ECB rate hikes. Nevertheless, these expectations are already largely reflected in quotes and do not yet outweigh the recent reassessment of Fed policy. An additional constraint on the euro is investors' cautious attitude towards risk against the backdrop of expensive oil and persistent geopolitical tension.

The main factor of the current session is the advantage of the American currency, associated with expectations of a higher Fed rate and rising yields in the US. Support for the euro from the prospects of ECB policy tightening may slow down the pair's decline, but does not form a sufficient basis for a reversal. As long as American statistics have not disproved stricter rate expectations, the fundamental balance allows for further weakening of EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.15870, SL 1.16270, TP 1.14910

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28.08 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support following fresh Tokyo data: core inflation in August accelerated to 1.8%, and the ex-food-and-fuel measure reached 2.0%. This strengthens expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan as early as September. A limitation on USDJPY growth remains the recent experience of currency interventions, which makes the market more cautious about further yen weakness.

Meanwhile, the dollar retains stronger momentum in the current session. The US currency is holding near its weekly high, and Fed officials continue to point to persistent inflation risks. The market has increased the probability of further US policy tightening by year-end, so the interest rate differential continues to support the dollar. The yen, meanwhile, has already given up part of its previous strength after interventionist actions.

The main risk for long positions remains new signals from Japanese authorities and an acceleration in the repricing of the Bank of Japan's September decision. However, so far, fresh statistics have not led to sustained yen strengthening, and the dollar factor remains dominant. If the Fed Chair's speech confirms a tough stance on inflation, the base case allows for moderate continuation of USDJPY growth.

Trading idea: BUY 159.45, SL 159.15, TP 160.20

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28.08 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

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The pound enters Friday's session after falling to weekly lows, with the main local factor linked to revised Bank of England rate expectations. The market now prices in fewer rate hikes through the end of 2026, while a full 25-basis-point increase is not expected until 2027. Lower UK bond yields further reduce interest rate support for the pound.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, but this did not lead to sustained stronger expectations for tighter policy. The labor market remains a constraining argument for the Bank of England, and there are few new domestic data points today that could quickly change this assessment. Therefore, the British currency is more dependent on external conditions and the direction of the US dollar.

The dollar holds near its weekly high ahead of the Fed chair's speech at Jackson Hole, and recent comments from regulator officials continue to emphasize inflation risks. If the market continues to price in higher rates in the US, GBPUSD will remain under pressure. A shift in scenario would require a significantly more dovish signal from the Fed or a new strong factor favoring the pound.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3590, SL 1.3625, TP 1.3505

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28.08 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

EURUSD:

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The euro begins the European session near weekly lows as the market approaches Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech with heightened attention to inflation risks in the US. Several Fed officials recently reiterated the need to maintain a firm stance against price pressures, and the probability of a rate hike by year-end has increased. This supports the dollar and limits EURUSD recovery.

The local backdrop for the euro appears mixed. Market participants are awaiting fresh data on inflation and economic activity in France, which could adjust expectations for the ECB. However, until their release, the European currency lacks a new confirmed driver capable of outweighing the dollar's strength. Current ECB policy expectations provide some support for the euro, but they do not yet alter the overall balance of the current session.

The key factor remains the market's reaction to signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole. If Warsh confirms the priority of fighting inflation and does not soften rate expectations, demand for the dollar is likely to persist. A softer rhetoric would pose a risk to this scenario, but until such a signal appears, the basic fundamental backdrop favors further decline in EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1650, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1575

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USD/JPY is holding around 159.30, but the fundamental balance of the pair is shifting in favor of the yen. Ryozo Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that timely rate hikes will help avoid an inflationary surge and the need for a sharper tightening later. No direct signal for September was given, but the market estimates the probability of a rate hike at approximately 86%.

Dollar support remains after US personal consumption expenditure inflation data came in higher than expected. This leaves room for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year and maintains a significant yield differential in favor of the US currency. However, this factor has already been supporting USD/JPY at high levels, while expectations of faster tightening by the Bank of Japan have received new confirmation.

For the current session, the Japanese factor may outweigh the moderate dollar momentum. Yen weakness intensifies inflation risks for Japan, and the high probability of a September rate hike limits the potential for further pair growth. With expectations regarding the Bank of Japan maintained, the base scenario allows for a decline in USD/JPY, although the absence of a direct signal from Himino requires cautious assessment of the movement.

Trading idea: SELL 159.30, SL 159.75, TP 158.20

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The pound has retreated from its recent six-month high and is trading around 1.3590 as attention in the currency market shifts to US monetary policy. Higher-than-expected personal consumption expenditure inflation in the US maintains the probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Against this backdrop, the dollar has gained an advantage, and GBP/USD has become more sensitive to further signals from the regulator.

Internal conditions do not provide grounds to expect a weakening of the pound. The resilience of the British economy and expectations of the Bank of England maintaining its interest rate at an elevated level continue to support the currency. At the same time, these factors are largely reflected in the quotes after the pair's rise to multi-month highs, and there is currently insufficient new data from the UK capable of returning the initiative to buyers.

The balance of factors shifts in favor of a moderate decline in GBP/USD. The speech by the Fed Chair in Jackson Hole will be a test of rate expectations, and confirmation of inflation concerns could strengthen demand for the dollar. In the absence of a new strong British driver, priority remains with selling the pair, but firm expectations regarding the Bank of England may curb the depth of the correction.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3590, SL 1.3630, TP 1.3490

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EUR/USD enters the European session around 1.1660 after the US dollar held near its eight-day high. Support for the American currency came from July personal consumption expenditure inflation: the annual rate remained at 3.7%, exceeding market expectations. This maintains the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end and limits demand for the euro.

The common currency's own backdrop looks more resilient: business activity in the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace since November in August, and ECB representative Isabel Schnabel pointed to the need for further rate hikes due to inflation risks. However, these signals had already supported the euro in previous sessions, whereas the fresh reassessment of the Fed's trajectory could have a stronger impact on the pair today.

The main factor for EUR/USD remains the expectation of the Fed Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. After higher-than-expected core inflation, the market will be particularly sensitive to confirmation of the regulator's hawkish stance. With sustained demand for the dollar, the base scenario allows for a decline in the pair, although strong ECB signals may limit the scale of the move.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1655, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1580

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26.08 15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP quarter over quarter

USDJPY:

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The yen is gaining fresh fundamental support following an acceleration of inflation in the Japanese services sector. The Services Producer Price Index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in July after a revised 3.4% in June, strengthening the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. This is significant for USDJPY as expectations of faster policy tightening reduce some of the dollar's previous interest rate advantage.

A new survey of economists showed a notable shift in expectations: most now allow for a Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.25% as early as September, and the market is close to fully pricing in such a move. Yen sensitivity is also supported by recent joint intervention by Japan and the US in the foreign exchange market, which keeps attention focused on excessive weakening of the Japanese currency.

On the dollar side, there is no strong counter-momentum yet. The American currency is trading in a narrow range ahead of the release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and new signals from the Fed, while fresh Japanese data are boosting expectations regarding the Bank of Japan. As a result, the base scenario allows for a decline in USDJPY given the current re-pricing of interest rate expectations.

Trade idea: SELL 159.05, SL 159.45, TP 158.15

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26.08 15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP quarter-over-quarter

GBPUSD:

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The pound maintains support from Bank of England expectations following a series of stronger UK data and persistent inflationary pressure. The market continues to price in the possibility of a rate hike by year-end, with GBPUSD holding near six-month highs. This provides an advantage for the British currency as long as new data does not force investors to significantly revise monetary policy expectations.

However, the fundamental picture for the UK is not entirely clear-cut. High government bond yields and concerns over funding fiscal initiatives limit the pound's potential, as borrowing costs increase market sensitivity to the October budget. Nevertheless, within the current session, these risks currently take a back seat to expectations regarding the Bank of England and recent economic resilience.

The US dollar begins the day without strong directional movement: market participants are awaiting the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and new signals from the Federal Reserve. With the dollar's momentum currently limited and the pound retaining its own supportive factors, the priority remains for moderate GBPUSD growth against the current backdrop.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3640, SL 1.3605, TP 1.3720

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26.08 15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP quarter over quarter

EURUSD:

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The euro gains support following fresh signals that the ECB is ready to raise rates at its September meeting. Recent reports indicate that the regulator is considering a hike from 2.25% to 2.50% amid inflation around 3% and persistent pressure from energy prices. For EURUSD, this enhances the relative attractiveness of the euro, especially since the Eurozone economy has so far shown resilience.

Another argument in favor of the European currency remains August business activity data. The Eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.1 points, with the manufacturing sector showing the strongest dynamics in several years. These data do not eliminate growth risks, but they reduce the likelihood that the ECB will be forced to abandon a tighter stance due to economic weakness.

The US dollar trades without clear momentum ahead of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index release: the dollar index halted its three-day rally, and investors are waiting for new inflation indicators and Fed positioning. Against this backdrop, local Euro factors look stronger, so the base scenario allows for an EURUSD recovery given current ECB expectations.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1670, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1745

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USDJPY:

USD/JPY remains near 159, but fundamental support for the dollar is gradually weakening. The expansion of US long-term government bond buybacks and uncertainty regarding future Fed policy limit the growth potential of the American currency. High bond yields are currently preventing a sharp decline in the pair, but their influence is becoming less clear against the backdrop of debt risks.

The yen is supported by growing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September. Core inflation in the country accelerated to 1.8% in July, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 1.9%. Rising import costs and persistent price pressure increase the likelihood that the regulator will continue its monetary policy normalization.

An additional constraint on USD/JPY is the recent joint intervention by Japan and the US, which demonstrated the authorities' willingness to counter excessive yen weakness. As the pair approaches the 160 level, market participants are becoming more cautious, while expectations of a BOJ rate hike are creating specific demand for the Japanese currency. Under these conditions, a decline in USD/JPY remains the more likely scenario for the current session.

Trading idea: SELL 159.35, SL 159.80, TP 158.27

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GBPUSD:

The pound is held near multi-month highs due to signs of resilience in the British economy. Activity in the services sector strengthened in August, and improving business and consumer sentiment reduces concerns about a sharp weakening of domestic demand. These signals support interest in the British currency despite ongoing budget risks.

Inflationary pressure in the UK remains a significant factor for the Bank of England. Accelerating price growth and recovery in the pricing components of business surveys limit room for monetary policy easing. Although the market is uncertain about the need for an imminent rate hike, the expectation that it will remain at the current level for an extended period supports the yield on British assets.

The external backdrop also favors buying GBP/USD: the dollar is under pressure due to problems in the US debt market and uncertainty regarding the Fed's future stance. After four weeks of growth, the pound has become more sensitive to profit-taking, but its internal fundamental factors remain strong. In the absence of a sharp return of demand for the dollar, the base scenario assumes continued pair upside.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3632, SL 1.3587, TP 1.3731

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EURUSD:

The main factor for EUR/USD remains the weakening demand for the US dollar due to ongoing concerns around the US debt market. The expansion of the long-term government bond purchase program supports their liquidity but simultaneously highlights concerns about high debt servicing costs. As a result, the dollar has yet to achieve a sustained recovery.

The euro receives its own support from improving economic activity in the eurozone. The preliminary composite business activity index in August rose to a nine-month high, and acceleration in the manufacturing sector reduces the risk of a sharp economic deterioration. Inflation, however, remains above the ECB's target, allowing the market to maintain expectations of further monetary policy tightening.

The combination of more resilient eurozone data and doubts about the dollar's ability to transition to sustained growth creates conditions for further EUR/USD appreciation. Demand for the US currency may temporarily increase against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, but within the current session, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1662, SL 1.1627, TP 1.1746

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Gold starts the week with steady demand against the backdrop of a weak dollar and new doubts about the sustainability of the US debt market. The US Treasury's decision to increase buybacks of long-term bonds after the 30-year yield rose to multi-year highs has strengthened interest in safe-haven assets.

The rise in XAUUSD was already noticeable, so further movement depends on maintaining pressure on the dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech and inflation data. High yields limit the metal's potential, but with fiscal concerns persisting, the base scenario remains favorable for buying.

Trading Idea: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00

#SP500: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570

#SP500 enters the week after declining over the previous five sessions, with high capital costs remaining the main constraint. Long US yields are holding near multi-year highs, which increases requirements for company valuations and is particularly sensitive for the technology sector.

The market is also awaiting Nvidia's report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. Strong earnings could support stocks, however, the combination of expensive financing, inflation risks, and uncertainty regarding rates makes the weekly balance vulnerable. Priority remains with the downside scenario.

Trading Idea: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570

#BRENT: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20

Brent starts the week after a strong rally, but the geopolitical premium remains high. The US is preparing new sanctions against Iran and its trading partners, and ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-war levels. This maintains the risk of supply disruptions and supports oil prices.

Restraining factors include rising commercial oil inventories in the US and OPEC+'s decision to increase September quotas by 188 thousand barrels per day. However, the IEA assesses the third-quarter market as deficit-driven. With supply constraints persisting, the base weekly scenario allows for a recovery in #BRENT.

Trading Idea: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20

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The yen is supported by fresh inflation data from Japan. The core consumer price index rose 1.8% year-on-year in July after 1.6% the previous month, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy increased by 1.9%. These figures maintain expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and strengthen the fundamental support for the Japanese currency.

At the same time, the US dollar remains vulnerable due to market reaction to the expansion of long-term Treasury bond purchases by the US Treasury Department and concerns surrounding government debt. Although a strong US services sector supports the likelihood of further Federal Reserve policy tightening, the current foreign exchange market reaction shows that the debt factor currently outweighs this argument.

Recent currency intervention in support of the yen also leaves the market sensitive to possible repeated actions by authorities in case of renewed weakening of the Japanese currency. However, the main short-term factor remains pressure on the dollar from the US debt market. Combined with expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan, this makes a decline in USDJPY a more resilient baseline scenario for the current session.

Trading idea: SELL 158.90, SL 159.30, TP 157.90

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The British economy shows signs of resilience despite mixed data from recent days. The preliminary Services PMI rose to a six-month high of 52.8 in August, and consumer confidence reached a two-year peak. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic demand and supports the pound.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, remaining above the Bank of England's target. At the July meeting, three out of nine committee members had already voted for a rate hike, and the market continues to price in the possibility of policy tightening by year-end. However, these factors are tempered by a 0.5% drop in retail sales and an unexpected budget deficit, though they have not yet changed the overall picture.

For GBPUSD, the external backdrop is also important: the dollar is under pressure due to concerns over US debt policy and the Treasury's expansion of long-term bond purchases. Strong activity in the US services sector limits the extent of dollar weakness but does not change the main momentum of the current session. As long as UK data remains resilient, the upside scenario for GBPUSD retains the advantage.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3650, SL 1.3610, TP 1.3740

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Eurozone business activity data strengthened the euro at the start of the week. The preliminary composite PMI rose to 52.1 in August, a high since November, and new orders grew at the fastest pace in over three years. The manufacturing sector also accelerated, making the risk of a sharp deterioration in the Eurozone economy appear lower than before.

For the ECB, this backdrop is combined with inflation that remains above the target level. Activity resilience and persistent price pressure allow markets to maintain expectations of a tighter rate trajectory. At the same time, the US dollar is near multi-month lows after the US Treasury increased its purchase of long-term bonds, which has intensified investors' doubts about the sustainability of the American currency.

Strong US services sector data in August may limit further dollar sales, so EURUSD movement is unlikely to be one-sided. Nevertheless, for the current session, the combination of resilient Eurozone data and pressure on the dollar keeps the advantage with the euro. With such a fundamental background remaining, the base scenario allows for further pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1680, SL 1.1645, TP 1.1765

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USDJPY:

The yen begins the session in a stronger fundamental position following fresh Japanese inflation data. The core consumer price index rose 1.8% year-on-year in July after 1.6% in June, while the measure excluding food and energy accelerated to 1.9%. These figures strengthen expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September and provide support for the Japanese currency.

The main obstacle to yen appreciation remains the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan. It continues to keep USDJPY around 159 despite pressure on the dollar in other major pairs. However, Japanese bond yields have risen noticeably, and expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan are gradually reducing the attractiveness of carry trades.

At the same time, the US dollar remains under general pressure due to investor doubts about the sustainability of American fiscal policy and the effectiveness of Treasury measures in the bond market. For USDJPY, this combines weak dollar momentum with a fresh local factor favoring the yen. The interest rate differential may limit declines, but given the current backdrop, the base case allows for downward movement in the pair.

Trading idea: SELL 159.10, SL 159.45, TP 158.25

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GBPUSD:

The pound maintains a strong fundamental position following the release of UK inflation data and its recent rise to a six-month high against the dollar. Consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, reaching the fastest pace in four months. Although the acceleration is largely driven by energy costs, it keeps market attention focused on the risk of a longer period of elevated interest rates and supports the pound.

The domestic backdrop remains mixed. The labor market shows signs of cooling, and an economist survey indicates a high probability that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of the year. This limits the pound's upside potential. However, current inflation does not yet provide grounds for rapid policy easing, and the British currency is supported by weakness in the US dollar.

The US dollar ends the week under pressure due to concerns over the budget trajectory and Treasury efforts to curb rising long-term yields through increased reverse repo operations. For GBPUSD, the combination of resilient UK inflation and declining confidence in the dollar favors buyers. With new UK data on the horizon, uncertainty has increased, so the base case assumes moderate continued growth.

Trade idea: BUY 1.3645, SL 1.3615, TP 1.3705

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EURUSD:

The euro approaches the European session with support following a noticeable weakening of the US dollar. The American currency remains under pressure due to market doubts about the effectiveness of US Treasury measures to stabilize the bond market and concerns about the budget deficit. Against this backdrop, EURUSD is holding near multi-month highs, and the dollar's advantage has noticeably decreased.

The fundamental picture for the euro remains mixed but does not contradict the pair's growth scenario. German producer prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year in July, strengthening inflation risks, and the market continues to price in the possibility of another ECB rate hike. However, the Bundesbank warns of weak recovery in Germany, so local support for the euro remains limited.

For the current session, the main factor remains investors' attitude towards dollar assets. As long as rising Treasury yields do not return sustained demand for the dollar, and anxiety around US debt levels persists, EURUSD gains room to strengthen. After the already completed weekly rise, the potential looks moderate, but the base scenario still allows for upward movement of the pair.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1690, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1765

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USDJPY:

The yen is receiving fresh support from Japanese statistics. Japan's exports in July grew by 23.2% year-on-year and reached a monthly record, exceeding market expectations. These data complement the recent picture of economic growth for the third quarter in a row and strengthen the arguments for further normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy, despite persistent weakness in domestic demand.

At the same time, the US dollar is under pressure after long-term Treasury yields declined. Actions by the US Treasury to expand the buyback of long-term debt weakened one of the factors supporting the American currency. The Fed's minutes showed greater concern about inflation; however, the market is currently more responsive to easing conditions in the long end of the debt market and awaits new data from the US.

For USDJPY, the combination of more resilient Japanese exports and weak dollar momentum creates conditions for a decline in the pair. A further limiter to growth remains the market's sensitivity to possible official actions by Japan following the joint currency intervention at the end of July. As long as US yields do not return to recent highs, the base scenario retains its advantage for the yen.

Trading idea: SELL 158.45, SL 158.80, TP 157.60

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GBPUSD:

The pound maintains strong positions following fresh UK inflation data. In July, consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year after 2.6% the previous month. The figure matched market expectations but was slightly above the Bank of England's July forecast, supporting the likelihood that the regulator will maintain a cautious approach to future rate decisions.

Support for GBPUSD is reinforced by the general weakening of the US dollar. The decline in long-term Treasury yields following actions by the US Department of the Treasury reduced the attractiveness of the American currency, and the Fed minutes failed to fully reverse this trend. Meanwhile, weak signals from the UK labor market limit room for an overly bullish reassessment of the Bank of England's prospects.

Unlike the euro, for the pound today, the combination of elevated inflation and resilience in domestic demand is more important. The market has already partially priced in the probability of further policy tightening, so the growth potential for GBPUSD does not appear unlimited. However, with continued pressure on the dollar and no new deterioration in UK statistics, the advantage remains with the scenario of further pound strengthening.

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EURUSD:

The euro is holding near its highest levels since late May, primarily supported by the weakening of the US dollar. The US Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buyback operations has reduced pressure on this market segment and pushed long-term yields down. For EURUSD, this weakens the advantage of the US currency, although part of the momentum has already been realized after yesterday's rise.

The local Eurozone backdrop also does not hinder the strengthening of the euro. The market continues to price in the possibility of another ECB rate hike in the fall against the background of persistent inflationary pressures and the region's economic resilience. However, expectations do not appear one-sided: the FOMC minutes showed that many participants allow for further tightening if US inflation does not continue to decline.

For the current session, the key question remains whether the dollar can recover after a sharp weakening. So far, the decline in US long-term yields and overall demand for European currency maintain the advantage for EURUSD. New data from the US could change the market's assessment, so after the already occurred rise, the base scenario assumes a moderate continuation of the upward movement, without counting on acceleration.

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Gold starts the week supported by a weaker dollar and reduced expectations of an FRS rate hike in September. Soft US inflation and retail sales data reduce pressure from monetary policy, while tensions in the Middle East maintain demand for safe-haven assets.

However, XAUUSD has already risen significantly, increasing the risk of profit-taking. Nevertheless, demand from central banks and persistent geopolitical uncertainty support the metal. As long as FRS expectations remain more dovish, the base scenario allows for moderate continued growth in gold.

Trading Idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50

#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930

#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the main positive factor being the reduced probability of an FRS rate hike in September. Support is also provided by a strong earnings season: most index companies exceeded profit expectations, maintaining investor interest in stocks.

Risks are associated with high US yields and expensive oil, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the FRS minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains stable and rate expectations have softened, the base scenario supports growth in #SP500.

Trading Idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930

#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60

Brent starts the week after a strong rally, as the main driver remains the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping in the region has decreased significantly, and the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations maintains the geopolitical premium and limits opportunities for a sustained decline in oil prices.

Growth is restrained by expectations of higher global supply and the prospect of normalized shipping. However, on the horizon of the current week, the direct risk to supplies currently outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve significantly, the fundamental backdrop will continue to support Brent.

Trading Idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60

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Event to watch today:

19.08 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes Release

USDJPY:

The yen is gaining more robust fundamental support from the Japanese debt market. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has approached 3%, and market participants have strengthened expectations for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. This shift gradually reduces the attractiveness of carry trades and makes further depreciation of the yen less one-sided.

At the same time, the US side of the pair is losing some of its former advantage. US Treasury yields have fallen from recent highs, and weak employment data along with moderate inflation have led markets to scale back expectations for Fed rate hikes. This reduces support for the dollar specifically against the yen, which is particularly sensitive to the relative dynamics of yields in the two countries.

For USDJPY, the base scenario allows for a decline. The risk of new actions by Japanese authorities remains an additional limiter for pair growth after the recent joint intervention, but the main argument is not this, but rather the change in rate and yield expectations. If the FOMC minutes do not restore demand for the dollar, and expectations for the Bank of Japan remain unchanged, the advantage may gradually shift in favor of the yen.

Trading idea: SELL 159.40, SL 159.75, TP 158.55

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Event to watch today:

19.08 09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

19.08 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes Release

GBPUSD:

The pound is approaching the release of July inflation data after weak UK labor market figures. Unemployment remained elevated, job vacancies declined, and private sector wage growth slowed. These signals limit expectations for further Bank of England policy tightening, making the sterling's own support less resilient than that of the euro.

However, the broader dollar backdrop remains more important than local UK weakness. Falling US Treasury yields and reduced expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike are keeping the US currency near multi-month lows. This creates room for a GBPUSD recovery, although the reaction to UK inflation data could be sharp: stronger data would support the pound, while a weak report could temporarily shift the balance.

The base case still favors a rise in GBPUSD. The UK labor market is cooling, but this factor has already received significant attention following yesterday's release, whereas the broader dollar momentum remains weak. Before the release of the Fed minutes and absent unexpectedly weak UK inflation, the advantage lies with buying the pound against the dollar.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3540, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3610

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Event to watch today:

19.08 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes Release

EURUSD:

The Eurozone economy maintains a moderately favorable backdrop for the euro: July inflation remains above the ECB target, and the market is pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes in September. Today, market participants are awaiting final Eurozone inflation data, so the euro's potential depends on whether the figures confirm persistent price pressures and current expectations regarding regulator policy.

The main momentum for the current session comes from the weakening US dollar. The American currency remains near multi-month lows as Treasury yields have fallen from recent peaks, while weak employment data and more moderate inflation have reduced expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. The release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes later today could increase volatility, but until then, the dollar's advantage appears limited.

For EURUSD, this combination of factors maintains the priority of moderate growth. The euro receives support from expectations of tighter ECB policy, while the dollar lacks a new strong domestic driver. The main risk lies in harder signals in the FOMC minutes or unexpected disinflation in the Eurozone; however, given the current backdrop, the buy idea remains the baseline.

Trading Idea: BUY 1.1585, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1645

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USDJPY:

The yen remains weak in absolute terms, but the fundamental conditions for a continued rise in USDJPY have become less clear. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has climbed to around a three-decade high, while markets are strengthening expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike at the September meeting. This is gradually reducing the dollar’s previous advantage based on the wide interest rate differential.

At the same time, the US currency is losing support as expectations for Federal Reserve policy are reassessed. Following weak retail sales, employment data, and more moderate inflation, the probability of a US rate hike in September has declined. Higher long-term US Treasury yields are limiting the downside in USDJPY for now, but they are partly linked to fiscal and inflation risks and have not been accompanied by a comparable increase in expectations for Federal Reserve tightening.

The pair also remains highly sensitive to actions by the Japanese authorities following the recent joint intervention by Japan and the United States in support of the yen. This factor alone does not determine the direction, but together with expectations for tighter Bank of Japan policy, it limits the potential for further yen weakness. With the US dollar currently under pressure, a decline in USDJPY appears to be the more sustainable scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 159.50, SL 159.85, TP 158.65

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GBPUSD:

The pound enters the current session with support from the relative resilience of the UK economy. Recent data showed stronger-than-expected GDP growth in June, while the labor market has yet to provide a clear signal of a sharp deterioration. At the same time, expectations for another Bank of England rate increase remain in place, supporting the British currency.

Today’s employment figures require a more cautious assessment: the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, while the number of unemployment benefit claims increased. This combination does not provide a strong independent driver for the pound, but neither does it eliminate expectations that UK interest rates will remain relatively high. For GBPUSD, the more important factor remains weaker demand for the US dollar following a series of soft US economic releases.

The probability of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike has declined noticeably, while the Bank of England continues to face the risk of persistent price pressures, including those stemming from high energy costs. This preserves the pound’s relative advantage, although upcoming inflation data could change the market’s assessment. As long as the US dollar remains under pressure, the upward scenario for GBPUSD retains priority.

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EURUSD:

The euro remains supported after rising to two-month highs, as expectations for ECB monetary policy remain relatively restrictive. Elevated energy prices continue to reinforce inflation risks in the euro area, while the market is allowing for another rate increase in September. At the same time, the currency bloc’s economy is showing sufficient resilience, reducing the likelihood of a rapid shift toward monetary easing.

For EURUSD, weakness on the US side of the pair is becoming increasingly important. The recent decline in US retail sales, weaker labor market indicators, and more moderate inflation have significantly reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The dollar remains near multi-month lows as market participants reassess their previous expectations for further monetary tightening in the United States.

Higher US Treasury yields and renewed tensions in the Middle East are limiting confidence among euro buyers, but so far they have not changed the broader currency impulse. The divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB policy expectations remains more favorable for the single currency. If the current fundamental backdrop persists, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in EURUSD.

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USDJPY:

The yen begins the session from a stronger fundamental position following a notable shift in expectations for Bank of Japan policy. The market has significantly increased the probability of a rate hike as early as the September meeting, while recent reports indicate that the central bank is considering a faster pace of tightening due to inflation risks and the prolonged weakness of the national currency. This provides support for the yen.

At the same time, the US side of the USDJPY equation has weakened. Soft US retail sales and moderate inflation reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, limiting support for the dollar from monetary policy expectations. US Treasury yields remain elevated, but the dollar’s previous advantage has become less clear than it was at the beginning of August.

The risk of further action by the Japanese authorities remains an additional factor. Following the recent joint intervention by Japan and the United States, Japanese officials continue to emphasize their readiness to respond to excessive yen weakness. Against the backdrop of a softer US dollar impulse and rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, the base-case scenario supports a decline in USDJPY during the current session.

Trading idea: SELL 159.30, SL 159.65, TP 158.45

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GBPUSD:

The pound enters Monday with support from the latest UK economic data. June GDP grew more strongly than expected, while previously released business activity indicators pointed to an improvement in the services sector. This reduces concerns about a sharp slowdown in the UK economy and allows the market to maintain a more resilient assessment of the British currency’s outlook.

At the same time, the US dollar lost some support after an unexpected decline in US retail sales and more moderate inflation readings. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has fallen noticeably, while UK short-term interest rates remain elevated. For GBPUSD, this combination reduces pressure from the interest rate differential and supports demand for the pound.

The main constraint is the approach of important UK inflation and labor market data, which could change expectations for Bank of England policy. The upside potential therefore does not appear one-sided. Nevertheless, there is currently no strong local factor weighing on the pound, while the softer US dollar impulse coincides with resilience in the UK economy. If these conditions persist, the bias remains toward a moderate rise in GBPUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3540, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3620

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EURUSD:

The euro starts the new week from a firmer fundamental position following Friday’s weakening of the US dollar. US retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, while more moderate inflation data reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. For EURUSD, this weakens the US currency’s advantage and leaves room for a moderate recovery in the pair.

The euro is also supported by expectations of further ECB tightening. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September amid inflation remaining above target and continued resilience in the eurozone economy. The divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB policy expectations is becoming more favorable for the European currency, although high energy prices continue to limit market confidence.

The main risk remains a recovery in demand for the US dollar if global market sentiment deteriorates or US data come in stronger than expected. However, at the start of the session, the fresh repricing of US monetary policy remains the dominant factor. As long as this backdrop persists, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro, and the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD.

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Event to watch today:

14.08 15:30 EET. USD – Retail Sales Change

USDJPY:

The yen has returned to the spotlight after USDJPY moved back toward the 159.4 area. Markets now put the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September at around 76%, significantly higher than at the end of July. The yen is also receiving support from the risk of renewed official action, as Japanese authorities remain prepared to respond to excessive currency weakness following the recent coordinated intervention.

Pressure from the dollar side has increased following softer US inflation data. Producer prices did not rise in July, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 35%. This weakens support for USDJPY from US interest rate expectations and makes the dollar’s previous advantage less sustainable, particularly as markets anticipate further tightening by the Bank of Japan.

The main risk to a decline in the pair comes from today’s US retail sales data and the possibility of market disappointment if the Bank of Japan fails to confirm a faster pace of rate increases. For the current session, however, the combination of weaker US dollar momentum, a high probability of a September Bank of Japan move, and the authorities’ sensitivity to yen weakness outweighs these risks. The base-case scenario therefore allows for a decline in USDJPY.

Trading idea: SELL 159.35, SL 159.75, TP 158.45

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Event to watch today:

14.08 15:30 EET. USD – Retail Sales Change

GBPUSD:

The pound enters Friday’s session supported by UK economic data. UK GDP rose by 0.3% in June after showing no growth in May, with the improvement driven primarily by consumer spending and business investment. These figures strengthened the view that the economy remains resilient and give the market little reason to shift its Bank of England expectations toward a softer policy stance.

The external backdrop has also become more favorable for GBPUSD. Unchanged US producer prices in July reinforced the impact of moderate consumer inflation data and reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. For sterling, this matters because it narrows the US dollar’s relative interest rate advantage, while UK markets continue to price in another Bank of England rate hike this year.

Today’s US retail sales data could significantly affect short-term demand for the dollar, so the potential for further movement depends on confirmation of the weaker US dollar impulse. At the same time, sterling’s domestic backdrop looks more resilient than at the start of the week: economic growth and persistent rate expectations provide local support for the currency. As long as these factors remain in place, the bias continues to favor further gains in GBPUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3495, SL 1.3465, TP 1.3570

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Event to watch today:

14.08 15:30 EET. USD – Retail Sales Change

EURUSD:

The euro is supported by firmer expectations regarding ECB policy. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September, as eurozone inflation remains above target and the economy grew more strongly than expected in the second quarter. This combination limits the case for a rapid shift toward a softer policy stance and supports the European currency.

At the same time, the US dollar has lost momentum following July producer price data, which showed no monthly increase despite market expectations for a rise. Combined with moderate consumer inflation, this reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 35%. Lower rate expectations reduce the dollar’s interest rate advantage and create conditions for a recovery in EURUSD.

The main risk to this scenario comes from today’s US retail sales data. A strong reading could revive demand for the dollar and partly change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Until the release, however, the euro retains an advantage due to the combination of firmer ECB expectations and reduced expectations for a US rate hike. If this backdrop persists, the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1535, SL 1.1510, TP 1.1590

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Event to watch today:

13.08 15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

USDJPY:

The yen has a more significant local fundamental driver than the euro or the pound. Data released today showed that Japan’s annual wholesale price growth remained elevated at 7.2% in July. Persistent price pressures strengthen expectations that the Bank of Japan could return to raising interest rates earlier than previously anticipated, reducing the dollar’s interest-rate advantage.

At the same time, US inflation data for July lowered the estimated probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 40%. US Treasury yields remain elevated, so the dollar has not lost its support entirely. However, the combination of more cautious Federal Reserve expectations and stronger expectations for the Bank of Japan makes the policy divergence between the two central banks less one-sided.

USDJPY also remains exposed to the risk of further action by the Japanese authorities following the recent coordinated foreign exchange intervention by Japan and the United States. This risk alone does not determine the direction, but today it coincides with a fresh inflation signal from Japan. As a result, local support for the yen appears strong enough to outweigh the moderate US dollar impulse, and the base-case scenario allows for a decline in USDJPY.

Trading idea: SELL 159.45, SL 159.80, TP 158.55

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Events to watch today:

13.08 09:00 EET. GBP -Gross Domestic Product

13.08 15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

GBPUSD:

The pound enters the European session ahead of the first estimate of UK GDP for the second quarter and June economic data. Until the releases, the British currency remains sensitive to any deviation of the actual figures from expectations. Recent resilience in the economy has supported expectations of further tightening by the Bank of England, but this factor is already largely reflected in market pricing.

On the US side, July inflation did not give the market a strong reason to increase expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the probability of a September move declining. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered from its initial weakness, while elevated US Treasury yields continue to provide support. Additional caution comes from the market’s focus on today’s US Producer Price Index report.

For GBPUSD, local uncertainty is greater than for EURUSD because the UK GDP release could quickly change expectations for the Bank of England’s next steps. However, ahead of the data there is no strong confirmed catalyst supporting the pound, while the broader US dollar impulse remains moderately positive. Therefore, if current conditions persist, the base-case scenario for GBPUSD remains tilted to the downside.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3490, SL 1.3525, TP 1.3415

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Event to watch today:

13.08 15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

EURUSD:

The euro begins the session without a strong domestic catalyst. The euro area is due to release June industrial production data today, while recent signals from business activity remain mixed: manufacturing output expanded in July, but new demand remained weak. This limits the euro’s ability to independently offset shifts in sentiment toward the US dollar.

For the US currency, the key factor remains the reassessment of expectations following the July inflation report. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 40%. However, the dollar quickly recovered its initial losses, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 4.7%, indicating that the market has not shifted toward sustained selling of the US currency.

Attention today turns to US producer prices, which could alter the market’s assessment of inflation risks following the relatively subdued consumer inflation report. Until the release, the dollar retains a moderate advantage, while the euro lacks a fresh catalyst strong enough to clearly outweigh the broader US currency impulse. If this backdrop persists, the base-case scenario allows for a further moderate decline in EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1550, TP 1.1470

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Gold starts the week after a strong rally: weak US employment data lowered expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike and supported declining yields. The main test will be July US inflation. Moderate data may sustain demand for the metal, while accelerating prices would return pressure via rates and the dollar.

XAUUSD has already gained more than 7% last week, so further growth requires new confirmation. Geopolitical uncertainty around the Persian Gulf maintains interest in safe-haven assets, and the current reassessment of Fed policy supports the baseline buy scenario.

Trade Idea: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50

#SP500: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885

#SP500 starts the week after a new record close, supported by reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike and strong corporate results. Earnings season is nearing completion, and profit growth remains notable, helping to maintain interest in stocks after the recent sessions' rise.

The key risk is US inflation: a high figure could bring back rising yields and increase the cost of capital. If price data does not intensify fears about rates, the combination of steady profits and softer Fed expectations maintains the advantage of the index growth scenario.

Trade Idea: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885

#BRENT: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80

Brent starts the week with a recovery amid uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker movement remains limited, and conditions for full route opening have not yet been agreed upon. This factor supports the risk premium and maintains the influence of supply disruption threats.

A restraining factor remains supply: OPEC+ agreed to raise quotas for September, and recent EIA data showed a rise in US oil inventories. However, until confirmed progress on shipping occurs, the risk of disruptions remains the main short-term factor, so the baseline buy scenario retains priority.

Trade Idea: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80

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Event to watch today:

12.08 15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

The yen has weakened again after much of the impact from the recent coordinated actions by Japan and the United States in the foreign exchange market faded. At the same time, market participants have become more willing to price in the possibility of an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike, which has supported short-term Japanese government bond yields. This factor limits pressure on the yen but has not yet changed the broader backdrop.

For USDJPY, the difference in interest rate expectations between the two countries remains important. US Treasury yields remain elevated, while the market is not ruling out a Federal Reserve rate hike in September ahead of the US inflation release. Until the Bank of Japan signals a faster tightening cycle, the yield advantage remains with the dollar and continues to support the pair.

The main constraint on further gains is the risk of another response from the Japanese authorities following the recent large-scale support for the yen. A softer US Consumer Price Index could also quickly push yields lower and renew pressure on the dollar. The upside scenario for USDJPY therefore requires caution, but ahead of the data, the current combination of interest rate expectations and yen weakness still gives a moderate advantage to the BUY scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 159.30, SL 159.00, TP 159.90

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Event to watch today:

12.08 15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

The pound is receiving limited support from fresh signs that the UK labor market is stabilizing. A July industry survey showed that the decline in permanent hiring had come to an end and that starting salary growth had accelerated, reducing the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions. These signals matter for the Bank of England, but one survey alone is not enough to generate a sustained GBPUSD impulse.

The UK market’s attention is already shifting toward second-quarter GDP data due on Thursday. Until then, sterling remains dependent on the broader external environment and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Today’s US inflation report could alter the market’s assessment of the September decision, while higher oil prices preserve the risk of more persistent price pressures and limit the scope for a rapid weakening of the dollar.

Local support for the pound is currently more likely to soften the pressure than reverse the pair’s direction. The US dollar impulse remains moderately positive, while UK data capable of materially changing expectations for the Bank of England are still ahead. Unless US inflation comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage, supporting a downside scenario for GBPUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3505, SL 1.3540, TP 1.3415

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Event to watch today:

12.08 15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

The euro begins the session without a new local catalyst strong enough to independently determine the pair’s direction. July business activity data from the euro area showed improvement in the services sector, while inflation remains high enough to keep expectations of further ECB tightening alive. This provides some support for the single currency, although these signals are already largely reflected in market pricing.

The US dollar retains a moderate advantage ahead of the release of the July Consumer Price Index. The market is almost evenly split between expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged and raise them in September, meaning any deviation in inflation from forecasts could materially affect exchange rates. Higher oil prices also mean that a renewed increase in US price pressures cannot be fully ruled out.

For EURUSD, the key issue is the balance between support for the euro that has already been priced in and today’s risk of a reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations. Softer US inflation could quickly revive demand for the euro, but ahead of the report the dollar holds a slight advantage, while there is no fresh European catalyst strong enough to offset it. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1535, SL 1.1565, TP 1.1460

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USDJPY:

The yen is once again in focus following joint action by Japan and the United States, which sharply strengthened the Japanese currency last week. After USDJPY moved toward 155.20, part of the intervention effect faded, and the pair returned above 159. The risk of renewed action by the authorities remains high, limiting the scope for a rapid rise in the dollar against the yen as the exchange rate approaches 160.

At the same time, the dollar's fundamental support has not disappeared. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns in the US, while the market continues to allow for a tighter Federal Reserve policy path if upcoming inflation data exceed expectations. Market participants are also continuing to buy USDJPY after declines, indicating that the interest rate differential and demand for the dollar are still outweighing the impact of the previous intervention.

The baseline scenario for the current session remains cautiously bullish, although the upside potential is limited. A sustained decline in USDJPY would require a confirmed impulse in favor of the yen, such as official action, stronger expectations for tighter Bank of Japan policy, or weak US data. Until such signals emerge, moderate US dollar strength appears more likely, although proximity to a sensitive area calls for a restrained target.

Trading idea: BUY 159.25, SL 158.95, TP 159.90

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