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The main factor for gold this week remains the Fed's tightening policy. After raising the rate to 3.75–4.00%, the market anticipates further regulatory steps, and the yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds remains around 5%. High yields on interest-rate instruments limit the attractiveness of gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and can restrain XAUUSD from falling. However, as long as inflation risks support expectations of further rate hikes, the monetary-fiscal factor remains more significant. Against this backdrop, the baseline weekly scenario suggests downward pressure on gold.

Trading idea: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

#SP500: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

The US stock market begins the week between the resilience of the technology sector and rising borrowing costs. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are assessing the probability of further policy tightening, while Treasury bond yields remain high. This creates pressure on company valuations and limits the potential of the broad market.

Demand for tech stocks and expectations of stable corporate earnings are currently mitigating this effect. Negotiations between the US and China could also support sentiment. Nevertheless, with yields remaining at elevated levels, the market's sensitivity to capital costs stays high, so the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

#BRENT: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

Brent starts the week lower amid signs of recovering supplies from Saudi Arabia and hopes for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Saudi export flows increased in September, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain steady. This reduces the immediate risk premium for supply disruptions.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty: new attacks could quickly revive concerns about supply, and the IEA points to ongoing tension in the oil balance. Yet, given the current recovery of flows and sustained diplomatic expectations, the baseline weekly scenario allows for further declines in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

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For the yen, the main factor of the current session is not only the interest rate differential but also the increased risk of actions by Japanese authorities. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25% on September 18, however, the yen did not receive sustained support after the decision due to disagreements within the board and cautious signals about further steps. This previously maintained the dollar's advantage.

The situation changed after reports of a check on currency quotes by Japanese authorities, which the market usually views as a possible preliminary step before intervention. Against the backdrop of reduced liquidity due to the weekend in Japan, such a factor can significantly increase USD/JPY sensitivity to official signals and limit dollar purchases in the current session.

The Fed remains more hawkish than the Bank of Japan, and the interest rate differential still supports the dollar in the medium term. However, after the pair's rise in previous days, part of this advantage has already been reflected in the price, while the risk of intervention has become a fresh local factor. Therefore, for today's horizon, the priority shifts in favor of a decline in USD/JPY.

Trading idea: SELL 156.70, SL 157.25, TP 155.45

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The pound gains local support from more resilient UK data: August retail sales grew stronger than expected, and the Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, with three committee members voting for a hike. These signals reinforce expectations of further policy tightening, but so far do not give the pound a clear advantage over the dollar.

For GBP/USD, the comparison of the two regulators' positions is more important. The Fed has already raised its rate to 3.75–4.00% and maintains its focus on elevated inflation, whereas the Bank of England ultimately left its rate unchanged at its last meeting. UK inflation may accelerate due to energy costs, but such a scenario could simultaneously weaken consumer demand and limit economic growth rates.

After a series of sell-offs, part of the dollar's momentum has already been realized, so the potential for continued movement has become more limited. Nevertheless, fresh UK data so far only restrains pressure on the pound rather than reversing the relative trend. As long as the market retains expectations of further Fed tightening, the base case allows for a gradual decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3320

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The euro begins the session without clear support after the ECB previously raised rates by 25 basis points. The decision itself has already been largely priced in, and the regulator's recent comments indicate caution regarding further tightening, primarily due to high energy costs. For EUR/USD, this reduces the strength of the local factor in favor of the single currency.

The dollar retains stronger short-term momentum. On September 16, the Fed raised its rate range to 3.75–4.00%, and most officials expect at least one more hike by year-end. Additional support for the US currency comes from fresh statements indicating that inflation remains too high, so the market continues to price in the possibility of further policy tightening.

The interest rate differential still favors the US, while for the eurozone, expensive energy simultaneously poses inflationary and economic risks. Despite the previous sessions' decline in EUR/USD, the dollar factor does not appear fully exhausted. With current expectations maintained, the priority remains a moderate continuation of the pair's decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1485, SL 1.1515, TP 1.1410

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The pound's position has worsened after the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rate at 3.75%. The regulator warned of inflation risks associated with expensive energy sources but refrained from immediate policy tightening. At the same time, the Bank of England slowed down the reduction of its government bond portfolio by suspending sales for six months.

The decline in UK bond yields following the announcement of a new plan reduces the percentage support for the pound. High energy costs can intensify inflation, but simultaneously increase expenses for businesses and households, limiting domestic demand. As a result, expectations of a potential rate hike by the Bank of England currently do not create a sufficiently stable advantage for the British currency.

The external backdrop is also not favorable for GBP/USD. The Federal Reserve has already raised rates and maintained the possibility of further tightening until the end of the year, while the British regulator preferred a wait-and-see approach. After a week of decline, the risk of correction increases, but differences in current central bank signals and the lack of strong internal momentum for the pound support the scenario of further pair decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3360, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3276

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The euro ends the week under pressure after a notable decline against the dollar. The main factor for the market remains the divergence in monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.75–4.00%, and most of its officials allowed for another move by the end of the year. There is currently no comparable fresh signal in favor of tightening ECB policy.

Support for the dollar comes not only from the Fed's decision but also from the harder tone of the accompanying signals. The regulator cited persistent inflation and signs of strengthening of the US economy. Although yields on long-term US bonds have retreated, the likelihood of continuing the rate hike cycle maintains the attractiveness of dollar assets and limits the recovery of the euro.

Thus, the advantage remains with the American currency. The Fed's decision has already caused part of the EUR/USD decline, so further movement may be less sharp than the initial reaction. However, the lack of a strong local support factor for the euro and the persisting difference in rate expectations leave the pair vulnerable to further declines during the current session.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1481, SL 1.1511, TP 1.1406

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09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan raised its rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, reaching the highest level in 31 years. The decision was made by a majority of seven to two and aimed at limiting the risk of exceeding the inflation target. However, the hike was already expected by the market, so the fact of tightening did not provide the yen with sustained strengthening, and USD/JPY remained above 156.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan has narrowed but remains significant. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% and sent a stronger signal regarding future actions. Against this backdrop, carry trades continue to support the dollar, especially if Bank of Japan comments do not convince the market of readiness to accelerate subsequent hikes.

Upside potential for USD/JPY is limited by further normalization of Bank of Japan policy and authorities' sensitivity to yen weakness. Nevertheless, the initial reaction shows that the anticipated rate hike was largely already priced in. As long as the US regulator maintains a higher rate and allows for further tightening, the basic fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pair growth.

Trade idea: BUY 156.20, SL 155.80, TP 157.20

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USD/JPY is holding around 156.10 after a hawkish Fed decision pushed the dollar to a seven-week high against a currency basket. The US regulator raised rates and signaled the possibility of another move by year-end, while two-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since mid-2024. This repricing supports interest rate differentials in favor of the dollar.

However, the scope for pair growth is limited by the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday. The market expects a rate hike to its highest level in 31 years amid persistent inflationary pressures, including those related to expensive energy. More hawkish signals on further increases could quickly strengthen the yen, so the anticipation of the decision reduces the appeal of aggressive dollar buys.

Despite the Japanese risk, within the current session, the actual momentum from the Fed remains stronger than expectations for the Bank of Japan, which are already largely priced in. As long as US yields remain high, USD/JPY may continue its moderate rise. The scenario will lose strength if the market begins to price in a faster rate hiking cycle in Japan and demand for the yen noticeably recovers.

Trading idea: BUY 156.10, SL 155.70, TP 157.00

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14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

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The pound is holding around 1.3380 ahead of the Bank of England's decision, but it approaches this level after a notable strengthening of the dollar. The Fed's rate hike and signal of further tightening have shifted expectations in favor of the US currency. At the same time, rising short-term US yields are supporting the dollar even after the initial market reaction.

The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at 3.75%. Accelerating UK inflation and expensive energy support the case for a hike, but weak growth prospects force the regulator to act cautiously. A possible slowdown in bond portfolio reduction will also appear softer than the Fed's new course and may limit demand for the pound.

For GBP/USD, the tone of the British regulator's statement will be decisive. A clear signal of an imminent rate hike could restore support for the pound and cancel the downside scenario, but the baseline expectation assumes a pause with no commitment to act already in November. As long as the dollar receives more concrete support from the Fed, attempts to recover the pair may remain limited, maintaining the advantage of sellers.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3375, SL 1.3410, TP 1.3295

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EUR/USD begins the European session near a seven-week low following an unexpectedly hawkish decision by the Federal Reserve. The regulator raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, and most officials allowed for another hike by year-end. This boosted short-term Treasury yields and returned a clear advantage to the dollar.

Euro support appears less resilient. Expectations of further ECB policy tightening remain, but falling oil prices have eased some inflationary pressure, while high borrowing costs remain a risk to Eurozone growth. Therefore, the European factor can currently only restrain selling, but cannot offset the fresh repricing driven by the Fed.

The key condition for this scenario is sustained demand for the dollar after the already realized impulse. The market has almost fully priced in another Fed rate hike in 2026, yet differences in short-term expectations still work against the euro. If US yields hold at elevated levels, EUR/USD may continue to decline, although proximity to lows requires entering without chasing the move.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1465, SL 1.1495, TP 1.1395

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15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales Change

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

USDJPY:

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The yen maintains support ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting concluding on Friday. The market prices in a high probability of a rate hike to 1.25%, and expectations of faster tightening have already helped the Japanese currency strengthen at the start of the month. Meanwhile, Japan's August trade deficit reached 1.106 trillion yen, and expensive oil raises import costs, weighing on the yen.

For the dollar, the next catalyst remains today's Fed decision. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is estimated at around 90%, and rising Treasury yields have renewed demand for the US currency. Even if the Bank of Japan also raises rates, the yield differential between the US and Japan remains significant, so a review of US policy could support USD/JPY throughout the session.

Upside risk for the pair is linked to stronger signals from the Bank of Japan and authorities' sensitivity to sharp currency moves. However, a significant portion of the expected Japanese rate hike is already priced in, whereas the Fed decision will come earlier and remains the main event of the day. As long as US yields and dollar demand remain high, the fundamental scenario allows for moderate USD/JPY growth.

Trading idea: BUY 155.20, SL 154.80, TP 156.10

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09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Retail Sales

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

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The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.

Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.

On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400

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15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales Change

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

EURUSD:

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The euro begins the session near monthly lows, although the ECB's recent deposit rate hike to 2.50% still provides some interest rate support. However, a significant portion of this decision is already reflected in quotes. At the same time, expensive energy worsens the outlook for domestic demand in the eurozone, and the Bank of France has lowered its forecast for the country's economic growth in 2026 to 0.4%, which limits the euro's independent recovery.

The American side of the pair receives a fresher impulse ahead of today's Fed decision. The market almost fully prices in a 25 basis point rate hike, and US 10-year Treasury yields previously rose to 5%. The dollar holds near multi-week highs as high inflation and rising energy costs support expectations of continued tight policy.

ECB support for the euro dampens pressure, but for the current session it is weaker than dollar factors. Most of the expected Fed move is already priced in, so the final reaction will depend on the regulator's forecasts and comments. Until these signals appear, the advantage remains with the dollar, and the base scenario allows for further EUR/USD decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1540, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1475

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The rise in US government bond yields has restored the dollar's advantage against the yen. Yields on ten-year bonds have approached 5% amid rising oil prices and increasing inflation risks. The expected Fed rate hike enhances the attractiveness of dollar assets and supports carry trades.

Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the end of the week support the yen. Market participants have already begun adjusting positions in light of a potential narrowing of the interest rate differential between the two countries. However, a significant portion of this expectation is already reflected in the recent strengthening of the Japanese currency, while the current rise in US yields temporarily limits further gains.

The risk of official warnings from Japanese authorities increases with rapid yen weakness, but there are no fresh confirmations of preparation for currency intervention at present. Before the Bank of Japan meeting, US yields and dollar demand remain more immediate drivers. This maintains fundamental grounds for moderate USD/JPY growth in the current session.

Trading idea: BUY 154.80, SL 154.30, TP 156.00

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The pound fell below the 1.35 mark amid rising demand for the dollar ahead of the Fed's decision. The market has almost fully priced in a rate hike by the US regulator following an acceleration in consumer inflation. Rising oil prices further intensify concerns about sustained price pressure in the US and support high yields on US bonds.

The Bank of England is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting. The resilience of the UK economy and elevated inflation leave room for further policy tightening later, but this factor does not currently provide a comparable boost to the pound. Cautious statements from the regulator's leadership also temper expectations of an immediate rate hike.

Thus, the dollar's advantage stems from the Fed's decision being closer and already practically expected, whereas the next move by the Bank of England remains less certain. A further deterioration in risk sentiment boosts demand for the US currency. As long as this combination of factors persists, GBP/USD may continue to decline during the current session.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3485, SL 1.3520, TP 1.3400

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The US dollar maintains its advantage ahead of the Fed meeting. Accelerating inflation and strong labor market data have convinced market participants of a high probability of an interest rate hike. Additional support for the US currency comes from the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which remains near multi-year highs.

The euro gains some support following the ECB's recent rate hike, but a significant part of this decision's effect is already reflected in quotes. At the same time, rising energy costs are worsening the economic prospects of the eurozone as a major fuel importer. This limits the European currency's ability to develop independent recovery against the dollar.

In the current session, the divergence in the strength of short-term factors is crucial. The expectation of tighter Fed policy is supported by high yields and investors' cautious attitude towards risk, while support for the euro from the ECB is gradually weakening. Therefore, the fundamental scenario remains in favor of further EUR/USD decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1540, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1470

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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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The yen enters the new week after one of its strongest stretches in recent months. The market is actively pricing in a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at Friday's meeting, and speculative positions on the yen have turned purely positive for the first time since February. Expectations of further policy tightening and the potential return of Japanese capital are supporting the national currency.

At the same time, the dollar receives counter-support from US rates. The market estimates the probability of an FOMC rate hike this week at approximately 86%, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds remains above 4.6%, and ten-year yields are around 5%. The interest rate differential remains significant, so after the yen's strong appreciation, USD/JPY retains recovery potential.

The key risk to this scenario is a stronger signal from the Bank of Japan regarding further rate hikes. However, the expected 25 basis point move is already largely priced in by the market, and the current news focus is more on the rate trajectory than on new actions by authorities in the foreign exchange market. With sustained demand for the dollar, the base case allows for USD/JPY growth.

Trading idea: BUY 153.55, SL 153.00, TP 154.80

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The pound maintains support after strong UK economic data: UK GDP grew by 0.4% month-on-month in July, and the services sector also added 0.4%. This reduces fears of a sharp economic slowdown and limits pressure on the British currency, so a GBP/USD downside scenario requires a stronger external factor.

Such a factor remains the overpricing of Fed policy following recent US inflation. The market prices in an approximately 86% probability of a rate hike this week, while the Bank of England is expected to mainly keep rates at 3.75% on Thursday. The divergence in short-term expectations and high US bond yields support demand for the dollar.

Rising oil prices complicate the picture for the UK: they can support inflation but simultaneously increase costs for households and businesses. Strong GDP curbs the potential for a pound decline, yet it does not create an advantage over the current dollar momentum. Within the base scenario, the idea of selling GBP/USD remains more resilient.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3520, SL 1.3560, TP 1.3425

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The euro begins the week after the ECB raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The regulator raised the deposit rate to 2.50% and indicated that inflation will remain above target for longer than expected. This supports the euro, but the effect of the decision has already been partially priced in by the market, while rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for the eurozone economy.

The American side of the pair received a fresher impulse following August's inflation data. Rising consumer prices strengthened expectations of an FOMC rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and US Treasury yields have remained near multi-year highs. This gives the dollar an advantage over the regulator's decision, especially given investors' cautious risk appetite.

As a result, support from the ECB for the euro currently does not outweigh the reassessment of the Fed's trajectory. Expensive energy further complicates growth prospects for the eurozone, while the expectation of a US rate hike remains a relevant driver for the current session. Given this backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1515

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15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support from fresh data on Japan. Wholesale inflation in August rose by 7.6% year-on-year and exceeded market expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next week. The limit on USDJPY growth remains authorities' attention to the currency market and their willingness to support its orderly functioning.

However, in the current session, the American side of the pair remains the stronger factor. Yields on US ten-year bonds have approached 5%, and the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at approximately 70%. At the same time, demand for the dollar is supported by deteriorating risk sentiment against the backdrop of expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East.

The yen rally in early September has already significantly narrowed the gap in policy assessments between the two central banks, while the last few hours have seen a recovery in the dollar. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities' actions limit the potential of USDJPY, so the scenario requires caution. However, ahead of the release of US inflation data, the combination of high US yields and current dollar demand maintains the advantage for moderate pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 154.60, SL 154.10, TP 155.65

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09:30 EET. GBP - GDP Volume Change

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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The pound starts the day with weaker domestic support. The market is awaiting July UK economic data, while expectations for the Bank of England remain cautious: a rate hike at the next meeting is not considered the base case. This limits the pound's ability to gain sustained support from interest rate expectations.

At the same time, oil prices rising above $100 strengthen inflation risks for the UK, but simultaneously increase the burden on consumers and businesses. For the Bank of England, this combination complicates the choice of future policy. Meanwhile, recent comments by Andrew Bailey maintain doubts about whether the regulator is ready to quickly move to a new cycle of rate hikes.

On the external front, the US dollar gains advantage: US bond yields have approached 5%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike next week has noticeably increased. Before the release of US inflation data, uncertainty remains high, but the pound currently lacks a fresh local factor that would clearly outweigh the dollar momentum. With current expectations maintained, the priority remains a decline in GBPUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3510, SL 1.3550, TP 1.3420

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15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

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The euro enters the Friday session after the ECB raised its rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. Christine Lagarde pointed to more resilient inflationary pressure, and the market continues to price in the possibility of further policy tightening. However, the decision itself was already largely factored into prices, so support for the euro proved limited.

The US dollar, on the other hand, is holding near weekly highs. A 0.4% rise in US producer prices in August, a spike in oil quotes, and yields on ten-year Treasury bonds around 5% have strengthened expectations of an Fed rate hike next week. Attention now shifts to consumer inflation, which could further alter the probability of such a decision.

As a result, the advantage in the current session remains with the dollar. The ECB's rate hike is curbing downward pressure on the euro, but it has not yet formed an independent momentum capable of offsetting rising US yields and expectations of tighter Fed policy. If US inflation does not give the market reason to sharply lower rate hike expectations, the base scenario allows for further EURUSD decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1615, SL 1.1650, TP 1.1540

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15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen gained new fundamental momentum after a speech by Kazuyuki Masu, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board. He indicated that core inflationary pressure has approached the 2% target level and that negative real interest rates need to be eliminated as soon as possible. In his assessment, further acceleration of inflation may require a faster increase in borrowing costs.

High prices for fuel, chemicals, and food are increasing the likelihood of cost-push inflation being passed on to consumers. Against this backdrop, expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise its rate to 1.25% at the upcoming meeting have received additional confirmation. Rising yields on Japanese bonds could also help retain more domestic capital in the country, supporting demand for the yen.

U.S. Treasury yields remain high, but their impact on USDJPY is being dampened by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision. The risk of official intervention to support the yen adds to, but does not define, the main scenario: the key factor is now the shift in expectations regarding Bank of Japan policy. Recent signals from the regulator continue to favor a decline in USDJPY.

Trade idea: SELL 153.45, SL 153.95, TP 152.20

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15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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The pound is holding near its highest levels in nearly two weeks amid a revision of Bank of England rate expectations. The sharp rise in oil and gas prices intensifies the threat of renewed inflation acceleration in the UK. Although regulator Andrew Bailey emphasized the absence of a pre-defined plan for a rate hike, the market allows for a tighter monetary policy trajectory in the coming months.

The domestic backdrop for the British currency remains mixed: expensive energy carriers increase company costs and simultaneously create risks for economic growth. However, within the current session, the inflationary component has greater significance for rate expectations. The possibility of two hikes by March 2027 limits interest in selling the pound even without an explicit promise of tightening at the next meeting.

At the same time, the dollar remains under pressure ahead of US production inflation data. The rise in US bond yields has not yet turned into sustained demand for the currency, as opinions regarding the Federal Reserve's September decision are divided. The combination of a subdued dollar impulse and heightened Bank of England rate expectations maintains the potential for further GBPUSD strengthening.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3630

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15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Press Conference

EURUSD:

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The euro is approaching the European Central Bank's decision with a nearly fully priced-in 25 basis point rate hike. The signal regarding future meetings will be more important for further movement. Persistent risks of rising energy prices and the resilience of the eurozone economy allow market participants to expect continued monetary policy tightening until the end of the year.

The dollar, however, failed to strengthen alongside US Treasury yields. Ahead of the release of American producer price data, investors are in no hurry to fully factor in a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Additional constraints on the US currency remain concerns about US public finances, which weaken the effect of high market rates.

For EURUSD, the euro retains its advantage, although a significant part of the expected ECB decision is already reflected in quotes. Further growth of the pair can be supported by the regulator's emphasis on persistent inflation risks and the possibility of another rate hike. If American statistics do not give the dollar a fresh impulse, the difference in expectations regarding the policies of the two central banks could push the pair higher.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1630, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1710

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The yen retains strong fundamental support following an improvement in Japanese statistics. Revised GDP showed more resilient growth, and real wages increased by 2.4% year-on-year in July. These figures have strengthened expectations for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, with the market almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point move at next week's meeting.

At the same time, the US dollar is not receiving sufficient support from Federal Reserve expectations. The dollar index fell to its lowest level in nearly two weeks, and market participants are divided between raising rates and keeping them at current levels. Friday's US inflation data could shift this balance, but until its release, the divergence in expectations between the two central banks remains in favor of the yen.

However, a significant portion of the Japanese currency's strengthening has already been realized: over the last five sessions, the yen gained about 4%. This calls for a more cautious target and does not justify expectations of similarly strong continuation. Nevertheless, expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, possible capital repatriation, and persistent dollar weakness support the scenario of further moderate USDJPY decline.

Trading idea: SELL 153.65, SL 154.15, TP 152.65

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The pound starts the session in a mixed internal context after statements from Bank of England representatives. Andrew Bailey emphasized that a new rate hike is not predetermined, while Dave Ramsden described internal inflationary pressures as relatively moderate. These signals are capping the pound, although expensive oil raises the risk of renewed inflation acceleration and limits room for policy easing.

Dollar weakness remains a more significant short-term factor. Its index fell to a nearly two-week low, and the market is awaiting Friday's US inflation data, which could alter the assessment of the Fed's September decision. With no clear bias toward a rate hike over a pause scenario, the dollar struggles to form a sustainable recovery against major currencies.

For GBPUSD, the local backdrop is less favorable than for the euro, making growth potential appear more limited. However, cautious signals from the Bank of England have not yet outweighed the broader dollar momentum, and rising energy prices reduce the likelihood of the British regulator quickly shifting to a more dovish policy. Under current conditions, moderate GBPUSD strengthening remains the priority.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3615

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The euro maintains support ahead of the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, as rising energy prices are intensifying inflation risks in the eurozone. This keeps the divergence in expectations between the ECB and the Fed in favor of the single currency and limits interest in selling it.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure: its index fell to a nearly two-week low despite strong employment data. Investors are awaiting Friday's consumer inflation statistics, and the probability of a Fed rate hike next week is now close to the probability of maintaining the current level. Until these data are released, the American currency does not gain a sustainable advantage.

As a result, the main factor for EURUSD becomes the combination of expectations for ECB policy tightening and the absence of new momentum in favor of the dollar. Risks to the scenario are created by possible strengthening of inflation expectations in the US due to expensive oil, but on the current session, the market retains the advantage for the euro. With this background maintained, the base scenario allows for further moderate strengthening of the pair.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1630, SL 1.1600, TP 1.1705

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USD/JPY fell to 153.27 as expectations of a faster rate hike by the Bank of Japan strengthened demand for the yen. The revision of prospects for Japanese monetary policy is accompanied by the closure of positions betting on weakness in the national currency. The possible return of capital from Japanese investors also creates an additional source of demand for the yen.

Support for the dollar from the US labor market remains, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has increased significantly. However, ahead of the release of inflation data, this factor does not provide the US currency with a sustainable advantage. Even relatively high yields on US bonds currently do not compensate for the change in expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's policy.

The yen has already strengthened significantly, so the probability of a temporary correction remains. Nevertheless, several factors support the fundamental momentum: expectations of tightening the Bank of Japan's policy, reduction of carry trade operations, and a coordinated stance of Japanese and American authorities on exchange rate stability. This maintains the advantage of the scenario for further USD/JPY decline.

Trading idea: SELL 153.27, SL 153.67, TP 152.31

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The pound is trading around 1.3545, maintaining stability against the US dollar. Statements from the British government regarding support for economic growth and adherence to fiscal discipline have not created a separate strong impulse but have helped curb concerns about public finances. At the same time, high borrowing costs limit the possibility of a quick easing of Bank of England policy.

The dollar's position remains the main factor for GBP/USD. Although strong employment statistics have raised expectations for September Fed tightening, the market is in no hurry to increase purchases of the American currency ahead of inflation data release. The decline in the dollar index shows that participants need additional confirmation of sustained price pressure in the US.

Under current conditions, the pound can take advantage of weakening demand for the dollar, despite ongoing risks to the British economy. The absence of a new domestic factor capable of causing a sharp reassessment of Bank of England policy supports a moderate scenario for pair growth. As long as the dollar does not receive a new impulse, GBP/USD retains the potential for further recovery.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3611

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EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1626 amid a weakening dollar and market preparation for the ECB meeting. Acceleration of inflation in the eurozone to 3.3% has strengthened expectations of a 25 basis point increase in the deposit rate. Additional support for the euro comes from a noticeable improvement in investor sentiment, indicating increased confidence in the prospects for the regional economy.

A strong US employment report increased the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in September, but did not provide sustained growth for the American currency. Market participants are waiting for consumer inflation data, which will be the last important benchmark before the regulator's meeting. Before their publication, already formed expectations regarding the Fed may limit the potential for recovery of the dollar.

As a result, short-term advantage remains on the side of the euro. Expected tightening of ECB policy is combined with improving economic expectations, while the positive factor of the US labor market is already partially reflected in quotes. If demand for the dollar remains restrained, EUR/USD may continue to rise within the current session.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1626, SL 1.1596, TP 1.1701

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Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

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USD/JPY is trading around 156.05 following a notable strengthening of the yen last week. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September, as inflation risks and rising costs of imported energy fuels strengthen the case for further policy tightening. This contributes to a reduction in carry trades.

The aftermath of recent currency intervention provides additional support to the yen. Japan's shrinking reserves confirmed the significant scale of yen purchases, while Tokyo-Washington agreements to continue coordination are heightening market caution. Therefore, USD/JPY recovery may face selling pressure even with the interest rate differential between the US and Japan remaining intact.

The dollar receives limited support from the strong US labor market and expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, but this momentum currently yields to local yen factors. The prospect of BoJ policy tightening and the confirmed readiness of authorities to counter excessive weakening of the national currency maintain the advantage of the USD/JPY downside scenario.

Trade idea: SELL 156.05, SL 156.45, TP 155.05

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The pound is holding around 1.3520 despite ongoing budget risks in the UK. The government has confirmed its commitment to current fiscal rules and its intention to support investment, which somewhat reduces concerns about a sharp deterioration in financial policy. However, high borrowing costs limit the potential for independent strengthening of the British currency.

The main influence on GBP/USD today is the position of the dollar. A strong employment report increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening, but this factor did not lead to sustained growth in the US currency. Market participants are waiting for consumer inflation data, so further reassessment of the rate trajectory remains dependent on fresh confirmation of price pressure.

In the absence of new negative factors from the UK, the pound could take advantage of dollar weakness. Fiscal constraints may cap the scale of growth, but at the current horizon they do not outweigh the US currency's inability to sustain a reaction to strong data. Maintaining such a balance supports the scenario for further GBP/USD upside.

Trade idea: BUY 1.3520, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3604

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EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1615 as the market prepares for the ECB meeting. Expectations of an interest rate hike support the euro, as investors factor in the regulator's need to respond to rising inflation risks. The likelihood of stronger signals regarding future policy limits interest in selling the European currency.

US employment data strengthened expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, but the dollar failed to sustain a solid rally. Attention shifts to upcoming US inflation statistics, which are needed for the market to get final confirmation of the regulator's September decision. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from concerns about rising government debt and economic policy uncertainty.

As a result, short-term advantage remains with the euro. Expected ECB policy tightening forms its own supporting factor, while heightened Fed expectations have already been partially priced in and do not yet provide the dollar with a clear momentum. If demand for the US currency remains restrained, EUR/USD may continue to recover.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1615, SL 1.1585, TP 1.1690

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15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

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The yen retains its advantage following a sharp increase in expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Market participants anticipate a tougher stance from the regulator at the September 17–18 meeting, which contributes to a reduction in carry trades and limits the recovery of USDJPY after the recent decline.

Additional support for the Japanese currency comes from fresh statements by authorities. Japan's chief currency diplomat confirmed heightened attention to exchange rate fluctuations and ongoing contacts with the US side. There is no official confirmation of new intervention, but the combination of these signals with the recent joint intervention by Japan and the US increases the risks of further dollar purchases against the yen.

On the US side, more restrained expectations for the Fed rate weaken the previous dollar advantage. Even with moderate employment recovery, slowing wage growth could maintain a cautious stance from the American regulator. A stronger reassessment of the Bank of Japan's policy and the persistent risk of authority actions support the scenario of a USDJPY decline.

Trading idea: SELL 156.30, SL 156.70, TP 155.30

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11:50 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

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The pound begins the European session supported by expectations regarding Bank of England policy. Chief economist Hugh Pill advocated for a timely rate hike to curb inflationary pressures. Although an immediate policy change is not currently considered the base case, his stance increases the likelihood of tightening later this year.

The British currency also benefits from reduced demand for the dollar. A more cautious signal from the Federal Reserve has lowered the probability of a US rate hike in September, and the upcoming labor market report should show only limited employment recovery. This combination dampens yields on US assets and supports GBPUSD.

High energy prices remain a risk for the UK economy but simultaneously strengthen arguments against premature easing by the Bank of England. As expectations for UK rates tighten and prospects for a Fed rate hike are revised downward, the base case suggests continued strength in the pound.

Trade idea: BUY 1.3530, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3615

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15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

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The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a US regulator representative, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand for the dollar back, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

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The yen has noticeably strengthened following statements from Bank of Japan representative Hajime Takata regarding the need to flexibly raise rates to contain inflation. The market has almost fully priced in the likelihood of policy tightening as early as September, which increased demand for the Japanese currency and led to a decline in USDJPY. This local factor is currently stronger than dollar support from expectations of an FRS rate hike.

Additional grounds for yen demand came from data showing acceleration in Japan's services sector activity, confirming the economy's ability to withstand higher borrowing costs. The decline in US Treasury yields reduces the attractiveness of carry trades. The combination of tighter expectations for the Bank of Japan and weakening dollar momentum maintains pressure on the pair.

The wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains the main risk for further declines, while strong US economic data could revive interest in the dollar. Nevertheless, ahead of the US employment report, market participants are acting more cautiously, whereas the Japanese monetary policy agenda has received fresh impetus. As long as this repricing continues, the base case allows for further USDJPY decline.

Trading idea: SELL 157.80, SL 158.30, TP 156.60

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The pound stabilizes after falling to three-week lows, supported by a weakening dollar ahead of the US employment report. Weak private sector hiring data has made the market more cautious about the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate hike, and US bond yields have retreated. This shift improves conditions for a GBPUSD recovery.

In the UK, accelerating retail price growth supports expectations of a Bank of England rate hike by year-end. At the same time, weak credit dynamics and a more cautious labor market may keep the regulator from acting hastily, so the pound's advantage cannot be considered unconditional. Nevertheless, the British currency has its own support from inflation expectations as demand for the dollar weakens.

Pressure on the pound could resume with new oil price increases or heightened concerns over UK public finances, as both factors increase economic vulnerability. However, the market is currently focused on cooling US indicators and awaits Friday's report, making it harder for the dollar to regain its previous momentum. Given the current backdrop, moderate GBPUSD growth remains the priority.

Trade idea: BUY 1.3495, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3595

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The euro begins the session with moderate recovery as the dollar retreats alongside declining US Treasury yields. Weaker private sector employment data has heightened caution ahead of Friday's labor market statistics and tempered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike already in September. Within the current day, this creates room for EURUSD growth.

The euro's intrinsic backdrop remains favorable. Persistent inflationary pressure in the eurozone keeps market attention focused on the possibility of further ECB policy tightening, while there are insufficient signs of a sharp deterioration in the regional economy that could alter expectations. Combined with the weakening dollar, this factor supports the European currency, although the approach of US data may limit buyer activity.

The main risk remains strong US data or hawkish statements from Fed officials, which would push yields and the dollar back higher. Until such confirmation appears, the session balance favors the euro: the US currency is correcting, and ECB expectations are not creating sustained pressure on EURUSD. Under these conditions, the base scenario allows for a continuation of the pair's rise.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1595, SL 1.1565, TP 1.1665

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15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USDJPY remains above the 160 mark as rising US Treasury yields and stronger expectations of an Fed rate hike support the dollar. The significant interest rate differential between the two countries maintains the attractiveness of carry trades, while higher oil prices further worsen conditions for Japan's import-dependent economy.

Support for the yen comes from statements by Bank of Japan representative Hajime Takata regarding the need to flexibly raise rates to curb inflationary pressure. The market also expects tighter policy from the regulator in September. However, these expectations have not yet provided sustained strengthening of the Japanese currency, as US yields rise alongside Japanese bond yields.

The main risk to pair growth remains the possibility of new actions by Japanese authorities following recent joint intervention by Japan and the US. Official concern about yen weakness could limit upside potential and trigger a sharp correction. Nevertheless, until confirmed measures appear, the combination of strong dollar momentum, elevated oil prices, and wide rate differentials continues to favor the USDJPY bullish scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 160.27, SL 159.87, TP 161.27

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15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

GBPUSD:

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The British pound begins the European session amid deteriorating global risk sentiment. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are supporting energy prices and heightening concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, capital is flowing into dollar-denominated assets, while demand for GBPUSD remains limited.

The Bank of England maintains its interest rate at 3.75%, and UK inflation exceeds the target level. This curbs expectations of rapid policy easing and provides some support to the pound. However, the British currency lacks a new local catalyst capable of outweighing rising US Treasury yields and an increased probability of Fed tightening.

An additional constraint on the pound is the vulnerability of the UK economy to expensive energy and high financing costs. If oil prices and US yields remain elevated, the differential in short-term currency attractiveness will continue to favor the dollar. Within the current session, this sustains fundamental grounds for further GBPUSD decline.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3508, SL 1.3558, TP 1.3388

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15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

EURUSD:

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The euro remains under pressure amid rising demand for the US dollar. Rising oil prices increase inflation risks, while yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds remain near multi-year highs. This strengthens expectations of continued tight monetary policy and enhances the attractiveness of the US currency.

Previously released data on US business activity and job openings came in weaker than expected, but have not yet changed market pricing of Fed policy. The probability of a rate hike in September has risen significantly following hawkish statements from regulators. Upcoming employment data may adjust these expectations, but until then, the advantage remains with the dollar.

The European currency is not receiving comparable support from local factors. Expectations regarding ECB policy limit the depth of EURUSD decline but do not offset the impact of rising US yields and demand for safe-haven assets. As long as inflation risks in the US support the possibility of further Fed tightening, the fundamental balance allows for continued pair downside.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1590, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1490

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USDJPY is holding around the 160 mark amid widening yields between US and Japanese government bonds. Revised Fed rate expectations support the dollar, while the yen remains vulnerable due to the attractiveness of carry trades. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty has not yet led to sustained safe-haven demand for the yen.

A local factor supporting the yen remains expectations of further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Regulator representatives allow for discussion of a rate hike, and yen weakness intensifies inflation risks. At the same time, the prospect of BoJ actions does not yet offset current yield growth in the US, so the direct fundamental advantage remains with the dollar.

The risk of currency intervention limits the pair's upside potential, especially after recent joint actions by Japan and the US. However, the US Treasury assesses current yen fluctuations as orderly, reducing the likelihood of immediate intervention absent sharp acceleration in price movement. With tight Fed expectations and stable market dynamics, the fundamental scenario allows for moderate continued growth in USDJPY.

Trading idea: BUY 160.100, SL 159.600, TP 161.200

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The pound maintains support from the UK's inflationary backdrop, but fails to regain ground against the strengthening US dollar. Rising inflation expectations among British consumers reduce the likelihood of imminent easing by the Bank of England, while simultaneously highlighting the risk that high prices will continue to weigh on domestic demand and economic activity.

Earlier expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England helped GBPUSD rise to multi-month highs, so a significant portion of this factor has already been priced in by the market. Attention has now shifted to the relative hawkishness of the two central banks. Following signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its readiness to continue fighting inflation, US bond yields have risen, and the probability of a September rate increase has noticeably increased.

Within the current session, the dollar's momentum appears stronger than local arguments supporting the pound. The British currency may receive support from persistent inflation, but renewed growth will require new data reinforcing expectations of Bank of England action. Until such confirmation appears, rate hikes in the US and cautious demand for safe-haven assets create conditions for further GBPUSD decline.

Trade idea: SELL 1.35420, SL 1.35870, TP 1.34340

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The euro begins a new trading week under pressure from increased demand for the US dollar. Following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, market participants have raised the probability of monetary policy tightening already at the September meeting. The rise in short-term yields on US bonds supports the dollar and limits the recovery of EURUSD at the start of the European session.

The fundamental backdrop for the single currency remains relatively stable. Inflation in the eurozone has approached 3%, and the market allows for further ECB rate hikes. Nevertheless, these expectations are already largely reflected in quotes and do not yet outweigh the recent reassessment of Fed policy. An additional constraint on the euro is investors' cautious attitude towards risk against the backdrop of expensive oil and persistent geopolitical tension.

The main factor of the current session is the advantage of the American currency, associated with expectations of a higher Fed rate and rising yields in the US. Support for the euro from the prospects of ECB policy tightening may slow down the pair's decline, but does not form a sufficient basis for a reversal. As long as American statistics have not disproved stricter rate expectations, the fundamental balance allows for further weakening of EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.15870, SL 1.16270, TP 1.14910

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Gold begins the week after a sharp decline triggered by reassessment of Fed policy prospects. The probability of a September rate hike has increased, US bond yields have risen, and dollar strength reduces the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit the depth of the correction. However, a sustained recovery will require easing of Fed rate expectations or weaker US labor market data. Until this happens, monetary factors retain their advantage and support the scenario for further XAUUSD decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

#SP500: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

The US stock market enters the week under pressure from rising yields and increased probability of a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns, while higher borrowing costs may reduce the attractiveness of highly valued stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

Focus will be on employment data and new corporate earnings. A strong labor market can strengthen expectations of policy tightening, while weak figures would ease pressure on the index. Until confirmation of a shift in expectations is received, the combination of high rates and geopolitical uncertainty keeps the priority on a #SP500 decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

#BRENT: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

Brent receives support due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Military actions near this key route increase the risk of supply disruptions and bring geopolitical premiums back into quotes, despite dollar strength.

Increased production and partial restoration of sea shipments may limit price rises. The market will also continue to assess inventory levels and demand prospects against the backdrop of tight Fed policy. However, as long as negotiations to stabilize the situation yield no results, the risk of supply disruption remains the main factor and supports the buying scenario for #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

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28.08 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support following fresh Tokyo data: core inflation in August accelerated to 1.8%, and the ex-food-and-fuel measure reached 2.0%. This strengthens expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan as early as September. A limitation on USDJPY growth remains the recent experience of currency interventions, which makes the market more cautious about further yen weakness.

Meanwhile, the dollar retains stronger momentum in the current session. The US currency is holding near its weekly high, and Fed officials continue to point to persistent inflation risks. The market has increased the probability of further US policy tightening by year-end, so the interest rate differential continues to support the dollar. The yen, meanwhile, has already given up part of its previous strength after interventionist actions.

The main risk for long positions remains new signals from Japanese authorities and an acceleration in the repricing of the Bank of Japan's September decision. However, so far, fresh statistics have not led to sustained yen strengthening, and the dollar factor remains dominant. If the Fed Chair's speech confirms a tough stance on inflation, the base case allows for moderate continuation of USDJPY growth.

Trading idea: BUY 159.45, SL 159.15, TP 160.20

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