Forex market Fresh Forecast for today

Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 159.75, SL 159.50, TP 160.25

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 12 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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The yen has gained arguments for strengthening: wholesale prices in Japan rose by 7.1% year-on-year against a forecast of 6.5%. This strengthens expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.5% in December. Currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura also warned that the market is too early to forget about summer interventions, especially as the dollar approaches 160 yen again.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Board Member Toichiro Asada cautioned against premature rate hikes, which could harm growth and weaken core inflation. In the US, the October consumer price index exceeded forecasts, and Christopher Waller allowed for a potential 0.5 percentage point move by the Fed. The probability of a December rate hike is estimated at around 87%, so the interest rate differential continues to support the dollar.

Warnings from Tokyo limit upside potential near 160, but have not yet been accompanied by new intervention. The dollar remains near 159.8, showing that demand for the US currency persists. Asada's stance dampens expectations of imminent tightening in Japan, while the market revises the Fed's trajectory upward. With this gap maintained, the base scenario for USDJPY allows for moderate growth, although the risk of intervention remains elevated.

Trading idea: BUY 159.75, SL 159.50, TP 160.25

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3195

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 12 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Change in GDP Volume

GBPUSD:

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Today's UK GDP estimate for Q3 will be the main local factor for the pound. The market expects growth of 0.7% after 0.5% in Q2; the annual rate may accelerate from 1.4% to 1.9%. Resilience in industry and business activity supports expectations that the economy is still withstanding the pressure of high energy costs and interest rates.

The Bank of England raised its rate to 4% last week: eight committee members supported a 0.25 percentage point move, while one advocated for a 0.5 percentage point increase. Claire Lombardelli did not rule out another hike in December, but timing will depend on wages, prices, and activity. Strong GDP will strengthen arguments for tightening, although the hike itself is already priced in by the market.

For the pair, the US factor is stronger: October inflation rose by 0.4% against a forecast of 0.3%, and the core measure stood at 0.3% versus an expected 0.2%. Statements by Christopher Waller heightened expectations of Fed tightening, and the market prices the probability of a December hike at approximately 87%. The British report may slow the decline, but a significant surprise would be needed to change direction. Under current conditions, the base scenario for GBPUSD assumes a decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3195

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1070, SL 1.1095, TP 1.1020

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 12 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The euro receives limited support from the ECB. Philip Lane linked further rate decisions to how previously higher fuel costs will translate into wages and other prices; Christine Lagarde previously allowed for the possibility of a hike in December. However, the regulator does not promise prolonged tightening: weak growth prospects and high costs force consideration of the risk of pressure on the eurozone economy.

The American factor is currently significantly heavier. The US October consumer price index rose by 0.4% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.3%, while the core measure increased by 0.3% against an expectation of 0.2%. Christopher Waller allowed for the possibility of discussing an immediate 0.5 percentage point rate hike, and the market-implied probability of a December Fed move is estimated at approximately 87%. The dollar index reached 103.02 — its highest level since April 2025.

Part of the revaluation has already been reflected in the pair's decline, so the previous pace may not necessarily continue. However, the euro currently lacks a fresh driver of comparable strength. If Fed comments confirm readiness to maintain a high rate for longer, the dollar will retain its advantage; softer rhetoric from the US or a decisive stance from the ECB would limit the decline. The base scenario for EURUSD is further downward movement.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1070, SL 1.1095, TP 1.1020

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.85, SL 158.60, TP 159.40

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 11 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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US Treasury yields are once again determining the balance of power between the dollar and the yen. Following US October inflation that came in above forecasts, yields on ten-year bonds approached 5%, and expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve strengthened. For USDJPY, this maintains the dollar's yield advantage, although a significant portion of the initial reaction to the data already took place on Tuesday.

On the Japanese side, the summary of yesterday's October meeting showed disagreements regarding the pace of tightening. Several Bank of Japan representatives called for faster rate hikes, while others pointed to weak consumption and uncertainty in demand related to artificial intelligence. The yen is supported by the prospect of another rate increase, but the document does not confirm a unified stance toward acceleration.

The pair's upside is limited by the possibility of more decisive steps from the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities reacting to a rapid weakening of the yen. A decline in US yields or a new official warning could strengthen the Japanese currency. As long as an expected rate hike in Japan leaves the dollar with a yield advantage, the base case allows for moderate growth in USDJPY.

Trading idea: BUY 158.85, SL 158.60, TP 159.40

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3345, SL 1.3375, TP 1.3285

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 11 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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The Bank of England maintains its own interest rate argument for the pound. Yesterday, Claire Lombardelli warned that conditions for sustained inflation are strengthening and allowed for the possibility of another rate hike in the near future. Following last week's decision to raise the rate to 4%, this confirms a readiness to continue tightening, although the timing of the next step remains data-dependent.

At the same time, the UK labor market is cooling primarily through reduced hiring. According to Lombardelli, the mismatch between applicants' skills and employers' requirements may weaken the impact of unemployment on wage growth. This creates a mixed backdrop for the pound: inflationary resilience supports rate expectations, but weak worker mobility hinders productivity and economic growth.

In the US, October consumer price growth came in above expectations, strengthening the case for further Fed rate hikes. This fresh momentum currently outweighs British signals, so there is insufficient basis for a sustained advantage for the pound. A more hawkish stance by the Bank of England or a weakening of dollar demand could alter the scenario. Under current conditions, the GBPUSD trade idea is directed downward.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3345, SL 1.3375, TP 1.3285

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1165, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1120

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 11 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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For the euro, the main counterweight to the strong US dollar remains the ECB's readiness to curb inflation. On Tuesday, Joachim Nagel stated there were solid grounds for raising rates in December. However, Philip Lane linked further decisions to the pass-through of energy costs into wages and other prices. Such signals support the euro but do not imply a pre-agreed acceleration of tightening.

American data provided a clearer signal: consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October against an expected 0.3%. Christopher Waller also advocated for an FRS rate hike in December. The combination of data and statements strengthened demand for the dollar as investors revised their expectations for borrowing costs in the US. New reasons are now needed to weaken this argument.

Part of the US advantage is already reflected in yesterday's pair decline, so extrapolating that magnitude onto Wednesday would be premature. Lower energy costs would support European business, and stronger ECB signals could help the euro recover. While the market revises US rates upward, the base scenario for EURUSD allows for further moderate declines.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1165, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1120

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.95, SL 157.70, TP 158.45

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 10 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

15:00 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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On the US side, the probability of an FOMC rate hike in December is assessed at approximately 85%, and the Consumer Price Index data at 15:30 EET may strengthen these expectations. Weak consumption in Japan complicates rapid monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan and currently outweighs its more hawkish signals. Intervention risks cap growth potential but do not negate the dollar's interest rate advantage. The base case for USDJPY is higher.

Trading idea: BUY 157.95, SL 157.70, TP 158.45.

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Trading idea: BUY 157.95, SL 157.70, TP 158.45

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3445, SL 1.3470, TP 1.3390

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 10 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

15:00 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

At 15:30 EET, the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Forecasts anticipate inflation at 3.9% and core inflation at 2.8% year-on-year; strong figures would bolster expectations of an Fed rate hike and support the dollar. A weaker result would give the pound a chance to recover. With UK statistics not showing accelerating demand and the US interest rate factor remaining significant, the base case for GBPUSD is downward.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3445, SL 1.3470, TP 1.3390.

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Trading idea: SELL 1.3445, SL 1.3470, TP 1.3390

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1225, SL 1.1245, TP 1.1180

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 10 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

15:00 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

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Prior to the release of US data, the market maintains a dollar advantage due to strong employment figures and rate hike expectations. Inflation below forecasts could weaken the US currency and support the euro, but such a revision would require a significant surprise. The moderately positive Sentix result currently does not change the balance of factors. The base case for EURUSD is a decline, especially if CPI confirms persistent price pressures in the US.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1225, SL 1.1245, TP 1.1180.

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Trading idea: SELL 1.1225, SL 1.1245, TP 1.1180

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Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 09 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25

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Gold rose at the start of the week as oil declined amid more restrained US statements regarding Iran. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns and may ease pressure from high yields on the metal. However, October US employment growth of 165k strengthened expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

US consumer price data will be released on Tuesday, and producer price data on Friday. Moderate price growth could help gold hold onto part of Monday's gains and continue its recovery if bond yields fall. An acceleration in core inflation could revive demand for the dollar and derail this scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25

#SP500: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219

The S&P 500 lost 2.7% last week, although tech stocks partially recovered on Friday. On Thursday, Applied Materials' results and outlook will help determine whether chipmakers' demand for equipment remains strong. A weak forecast could intensify doubts that AI infrastructure investments will yield the expected profits.

Actual results and estimates for companies yet to report indicate that S&P 500 earnings grew 31.4% year-on-year in the third quarter. This provides support for equities. However, strong US employment supports rate hike expectations, and expensive borrowing limits recovery potential. While the market awaits inflation data and new corporate forecasts, the risk of further declines remains higher.

Trading idea: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219

#BRENT: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16

Oil starts the week lower following Donald Trump's statement that new strikes on Iran are unlikely as negotiations progress. For the market, this reduces the risk of new export disruptions. According to JPMorgan, global supply already exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, increasing downward pressure on prices as supply threat fears subside.

On Thursday, the IEA's World Oil Market Outlook and US inventory data will be released. Rising inventories would strengthen the downside scenario, while a significant drawdown could slow it. After last week's sharp drop, some de-escalation expectations are already priced in. New disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly bring back the risk premium.

Trading idea: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.30, SL 158.05, TP 158.80

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 09 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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Today, Japan's Ministry of Finance released a breakdown of its summer currency interventions. On July 30, authorities spent 7.98 trillion yen on buying the yen, a record amount for a single day. The yen strengthened at the start of the Asian session following Friday's decline. The published figures relate to July, but the scale of that operation increases the risk for dollar buyers if yen weakness accelerates again.

In the minutes from the Bank of Japan's September meeting, published last week, several participants allowed for a faster rate hike in the event of rising inflation. Meanwhile, a strong US employment report has raised expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. With the interest rate differential remaining, the dollar still offers higher yields, even if the Bank of Japan continues to tighten policy.

At the start of the week, the recovery of Asian stock markets limits the demand for safe-haven assets. As long as expectations for Fed rate hikes remain firm, the yield advantage leaves room for moderate USDJPY growth after the morning yen strengthening. A decline in US bond yields or a new warning from Japanese authorities about sharp currency movements could reverse the pair.

Trading idea: BUY 158.30, SL 158.05, TP 158.80

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3370, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3310

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 09 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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The pound starts the week with support from the Bank of England's decision: the regulator raised the interest rate to 4%, and all nine committee members voted for tightening. One member had proposed a larger step. However, the regulator currently sees few signs that rising energy costs have translated into broader price and wage growth. The drop in oil prices amid Iran negotiations weakens the argument for an imminent further rate hike.

The US report provides the market with a fresh reason to reassess rate expectations. Average hourly earnings in the US rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, and job growth significantly exceeded expectations. This combination strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike in December. For the pound, this limits support from the UK decision, especially since the market has already reacted to it last week.

The pound may retain some of the morning recovery if improved sentiment in equity markets continues and demand for the dollar weakens. A sharper decline in energy prices could also support British assets through expectations of reduced pressure on household incomes. As long as the advantage remains with the dollar, the trade idea suggests a decline in GBPUSD.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3370, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3310

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1150, SL 1.1170, TP 1.1105

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 09 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The US Friday employment report has changed expectations for the December Fed meeting. In October, the economy added 165,000 jobs in non-farm sectors, while estimates for August and September were revised upward by a combined 84,000. The market-implied probability of a December rate hike following the report has risen to approximately 80%. At the start of Monday's session, the euro recovered some losses, but US rate expectations continue to support the dollar.

The Eurozone has its own argument in favor of the euro: German industrial production grew by 0.7% in September compared to August. The ECB also acknowledges that high energy costs could boost inflation. However, at its last meeting, it kept the deposit facility rate at 2.50% and noted that core inflation has remained relatively stable. An improvement in one industrial indicator provides limited support for the euro.

During the European session, a noticeable improvement in investor sentiment in the Eurozone could extend the euro's recovery. Ahead of tomorrow's US inflation report, some market participants may also reduce their dollar positions. As long as expectations for a Fed rate hike persist, the base scenario suggests a resumption of the EURUSD decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1150, SL 1.1170, TP 1.1105

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.80, SL 158.10, TP 157.20

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 06 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USA - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

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The yen strengthened during Asian trading after a drop in tech stocks and a decline in US Treasury yields. It then gave back some gains as US yields began to recover. For USDJPY, the sustainability of this recovery is key: a new drop in yields would weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage and boost demand for the yen.

In late October, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate target at around 1.25%. The minutes from the September meeting, released this week, showed that board members considered further rate hikes given economic and price dynamics. This sets the stage for a gradual narrowing of the interest rate differential, although dollar assets currently retain a significant yield advantage.

A strong US employment report could prolong the recovery in yields and weaken the yen. If the data disappoints and pressure on stock markets persists, buying the yen as a safe-haven currency may resume. The scenario for a decline in USDJPY relies on a combination of investor caution and lower US yields compared to pre-sell-off levels.

Trading idea: SELL 157.80, SL 158.10, TP 157.20

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3360

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 06 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USA - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

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The Bank of England raised its interest rate from 3.75% to 4%. Eight committee members supported a quarter-point hike, while one preferred a half-point move. The decision aligned with market expectations, so today it is more important for the pound whether there are grounds to anticipate another rate hike. Yesterday's decision is already largely priced in.

In its minutes, the Bank of England highlighted two countervailing risks. If high energy costs become entrenched in wages and prices, the regulator may need further tightening. However, weakening domestic demand would limit the pass-through of costs into prices. This uncertainty is keeping British rate repricing in check, as long as the stock selloff supports demand for the dollar.

The US October employment report will show how justified recent cuts in expectations for a December Fed rate hike have been. If unemployment rises more than expected, the higher UK rate could once again attract demand for the pound. If the US labor market remains resilient and demand for the dollar does not weaken, GBPUSD will retain room for decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3360

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1200, SL 1.1225, TP 1.1145

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 06 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USA - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

On Friday, the euro weakened against the dollar amid a decline in tech stocks. Selling pressure spread from US markets to Asian ones, increasing demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, yields on US Treasury bonds fell at the close of the previous session. Therefore, the dollar's advantage now depends primarily on whether investor caution persists.

The euro retains support from interest rate expectations. According to Eurostat's preliminary estimate, annual inflation in October rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. However, the main price pressure is coming from energy sources, and the ECB points out that expensive energy simultaneously worsens growth prospects. Therefore, accelerating inflation supports expectations of tightening, but leaves open the question of when the next step will be taken.

Ahead of the labor market report, the initial jobless claims falling to 189 thousand favors the dollar. If October data confirm employment resilience, the market may once again raise its assessment of the probability of a December Fed rate hike. Rising unemployment, conversely, could revive demand for the euro. As investors reduce risk, the base scenario allows for a decline in EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1200, SL 1.1225, TP 1.1145

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.90, SL 158.25, TP 157.15

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

The yen gained support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's September meeting. The regulator had raised the rate to 1.25%, and the published discussion showed participants' readiness to continue hiking. Some allowed for a faster pace. For the current session, this is an argument in favor of the yen, as the market sees December as a possible timeframe for the next move.

At the same time, US Treasury yields fell after the midterm elections in the US. If the decline persists, the advantage of dollar assets over Japanese ones will shrink. Increased interest in stocks usually dampens safe-haven demand for the yen, but in this session it is supported by expectations regarding the Japanese rate and the movement of US yields.

The risk for a USDJPY decline is linked to the US labor market. If jobless claims indicate stable employment, US yields may recover: the market still considers a Fed rate hike in December likely. Until such a reversal occurs, the base scenario assumes a pair decline against the backdrop of expectations for further tightening by the Bank of Japan.

Trading idea: SELL 157.90, SL 158.25, TP 157.15

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3490, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3570

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

Support for the pound ahead of today's Bank of England decision comes from expectations of a rate hike from 3.75% to 4.00%. Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast such a decision. The pound has already reached multi-week highs, so comments on future meetings are more important for further growth. The regulator's readiness to continue tightening would strengthen the British currency.

British inflation remains above target, and higher energy costs are increasing pressure on prices while simultaneously reducing household purchasing power. If the Bank of England places greater emphasis on weak demand in its forecasts or softens its tone regarding further hikes, the pound may give up some of its recent gains even with an expected rate increase.

The external backdrop is currently favorable for GBPUSD: following the US elections, lower yields on US bonds weakened support for the dollar. However, expectations for a December Fed rate hike remain high. The base case allows for pair growth if the Bank of England maintains a hawkish tone and US data does not trigger a noticeable recovery in US yields.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3490, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3570

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1260, SL 1.1235, TP 1.1315

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The decline in yields on US Treasury bonds following the midterm elections in the US supports the euro. Democrats gained a majority in both chambers of Congress. Against this backdrop, investors have become more active in buying stocks, and demand for the dollar has weakened. The cheaper oil also plays in favor of the Eurozone as an energy importer, although it is more important for the economy whether this decline holds.

October data for the Eurozone gives the ECB mixed signals. According to the preliminary estimate by Eurostat, annual inflation accelerated from 3.8% to 4.0%. At the same time, the composite PMI fell from 53.1 to 51.7. Price pressure provides grounds for maintaining a tight policy, but slowing growth limits support for the euro from rate expectations.

For today's session, it is more important whether the decline in yields in the US will persist. A noticeably smaller number of initial jobless claims could revive demand for the dollar if the market views this as a sign of solid employment and an argument for the Fed to raise rates in December. As long as yields do not recover, the base scenario assumes continued growth in EURUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1260, SL 1.1235, TP 1.1315

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.70, SL 158.10, TP 156.80

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Services Business Activity Index

USDJPY:

The decline in US Treasury yields makes the dollar's previous interest rate advantage less compelling for the yen. In the morning, US bonds rose amid early election results, and the yield on ten-year bonds fell. This is an important short-term factor for USDJPY: a decrease in dollar investment yields can support the Japanese currency.

In its forecast published this week, the Bank of Japan noted that core inflation generally aligns with its 2% target, and upside risks to price growth remain. This maintains grounds for further policy tightening. However, the policy rate target of around 1.25% remains significantly lower than that of the United States, so the resilience of demand for the yen will depend on the continued decline in US yields.

The ISM Services report could alter this scenario: strong activity and high prices would bring attention back to US inflation and may support the dollar. The potential reaction of Japanese authorities to sharp currency fluctuations is also considered a risk, but the thesis relies on yields and the Bank of Japan's stance. As long as these factors remain relevant, the fundamental bias for USDJPY remains bearish.

Trading idea: SELL 157.70, SL 158.10, TP 156.80

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3465, SL 1.3430, TP 1.3535

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Services Business Activity Index

GBPUSD:

For the pound, the key domestic factor remains tomorrow's Bank of England meeting. Economists expect a rate hike from 3.75% to 4.00% amid inflationary pressures. This is currently a forecast, not an adopted decision. Nevertheless, the expectation of higher yields on British assets helps the currency maintain investor interest ahead of the meeting results announcement.

UK inflation at 3.5% is combined with an economy that has proven more resilient than expected and signs of labor market stabilization. This backdrop increases the likelihood of policy tightening. At the same time, the market already prices in several subsequent rate hikes, while some economists allow for only a limited move. A cautious signal from the regulator could quickly diminish the pound's advantage.

Today, the dollar's weakness following the initial results of the US elections strengthens the UK's interest rate argument. The main risk to this combination is a strong US Services ISM report, especially if high price pressures persist: such a report could raise expectations for Fed rate hikes. Before its publication, the base scenario for GBPUSD assumes growth as long as current demand for the pound holds.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1245, SL 1.1220, TP 1.1300

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

The euro gains a rate argument following yesterday's statement by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel: he estimates that an ECB rate hike in December is highly likely. Therefore, the October pause with a deposit rate of 2.50% does not signal the end of tightening. This supports expectations for higher yields on European assets and demand for the single currency.

On the US side, the main driver relates to the initial results of the Congressional elections. The dollar weakened amid Democratic successes and falling US bond yields. The potential limitation of new fiscal stimulus reduces the attractiveness of the American currency. However, the final composition of Congress is still undetermined, so it is unwise to extrapolate the initial reaction across the entire session without reservation.

Today, the ISM Services index will test the sustainability of this move. Strong orders and accelerating price growth could shift arguments back toward a hawkish Fed stance and support the dollar. Expensive energy simultaneously constrains the Eurozone economy. Until new data disproves the weakening of the US dollar, the combination of dollar momentum and ECB signals allows for further EURUSD growth.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.95, SL 157.60, TP 158.70

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Events to watch today:

15:00 EET. USD - Congressional Elections

17:00 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

USDJPY:

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The yen remains sensitive to the large interest rate differential between the US and Japan: the Federal Reserve maintains a range of 3.75–4.00%, while the Bank of Japan keeps its policy rate target around 1.25%. This supports the attractiveness of dollar assets in carry trades. The holiday period in Japan further reduces local market activity, so currency reactions to external news may become sharper.

In late October, the Japanese regulator confirmed the possibility of further rate hikes, and authorities have maintained their focus on excessive yen volatility. These signals limit confidence in USDJPY upside, but no immediate narrowing of the interest rate gap has occurred yet. Against the backdrop of uncertainty ahead of the congressional elections, some investors are once again viewing the dollar as a safe-haven liquid asset.

The key test for today's scenario is the US jobs report. Sustained high demand for workers will strengthen arguments for the Fed maintaining higher rates for longer and could support USDJPY. Weak data or heightened expectations of a BOJ rate hike would create downside risk. As long as the dollar's yield advantage outweighs these threats, the base case allows for moderate pair growth.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3405, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3485

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Events to watch today:

15:00 EET. USD - Congressional elections

17:00 EET. USD - Job openings and labor turnover rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

GBPUSD:

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The main support for the pound ahead of the Bank of England meeting is the expectation of a key rate hike from 3.75% to 4.00%. UK inflation reached 3.5% in September, exceeding the regulator's previous forecast, so the risk of further price increases remains significant. Higher yields on British assets help the pound maintain demand even amid uncertainty in global markets.

Important confirmation came from industry: in October, output by British companies grew at the fastest pace in over two years. This reduces concerns that policy tightening will immediately lead to a sharp downturn. However, a significant part of the expected Bank of England decision is already priced in, and the Federal Reserve also maintains a high rate. Therefore, the pound's advantage does not currently appear unconditional.

During the day, GBPUSD movement will depend on the reaction to US elections and job vacancy statistics. If the report shows weakening demand for workers, it will become harder for the dollar to offset the British interest rate factor. Strong US data or a sharp deterioration in sentiment could cancel this scenario. Until such signals appear, expectations regarding the Bank of England's decision leave room for the pair to rise.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1185, SL 1.1215, TP 1.1115

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Events to watch today:

15:00 EET. USD - Congressional elections

17:00 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

EURUSD:

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Eurozone industry began November with mixed signals: October business activity maintained growth, but new orders slowed down, and expensive energy continues to pressure corporate costs. Simultaneously, the downgrade of France's credit rating outlook has intensified investors' focus on fiscal risks. This combination limits support for the euro from the domestic economy.

The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% and acknowledged that the energy shock threatens both price growth and business activity. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 points in October, while the Fed left its rate in the 3.75–4.00% range. This divergence in monetary conditions supports the dollar, especially as uncertainty surrounding the elections boosts demand for liquidity.

Today's congressional elections and the release of US job data could sharply alter the dollar's valuation. A weak labor market could weaken its advantage, but sustained demand for workers will support expectations of the Fed maintaining tight policy. As long as the US economy appears stronger than Europe's, the base scenario for EURUSD suggests a decline.

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Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43

For gold, the main test of the week will be US employment data and its impact on rate expectations. The Fed maintained the range of 3.75–4.00%, noting strong economic growth and elevated inflation. As long as the risk of further tightening remains significant, the metal, lacking interest income, faces competition from dollar-denominated assets.

Uncertainty surrounding the Congressional elections supports safe-haven demand but does not eliminate pressure on the cost of money. Weak employment figures and declining yields could shift the scenario in favor of gold. However, if the statistics confirm the economy's resilience, expectations of high rates will continue to exert influence. In that case, the basic weekly idea for XAUUSD suggests a decline.

Trading Idea: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43

#SP500: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346

Earnings reports from Apple, AMD, and Palantir will test confidence in AI investments following disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel. For the market, it is no longer just infrastructure spending that matters, but also their return in terms of profit and cash flow. A deterioration in this assessment could sustain pressure on tech companies with significant weight in #SP500.

Congressional elections add uncertainty around industry regulation, while Friday's employment data will influence funding cost expectations. Rising aggregate corporate profits remain the index's support. However, convincing business forecasts are needed to restore confidence. As long as concerns about AI profitability persist, the weekly scenario allows for further downside in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346

#BRENT: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32

The new week began with negotiations between Iran and Qatar, which continued for a third consecutive day. Hope for a diplomatic resolution can reduce the oil risk premium even before supply restoration. This creates grounds for a decline in #BRENT, although the consultations themselves do not yet signify an end to the conflict or normalization of shipments.

OPEC+ maintained its December production targets on Sunday, while export disruptions and threats to tankers keep the risk of shortage alive. Therefore, the potential for price declines depends primarily on further diplomatic signals. In the absence of new escalation, the base idea assumes a reduction in the oil risk premium; failed negotiations or serious supply disruptions could cancel this out.

Trading idea: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.90, SL 158.25, TP 157.15

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan's decision on Friday maintained the prospect of further rate hikes, although the current rate remained at 1.25%. The regulator raised its inflation assessment, and Hajime Takata proposed an immediate rate increase to 1.50%. His proposal did not receive a majority but indicated pressure in favor of faster tightening. This supports expectations for higher yields on yen-denominated assets.

For the dollar, the counterbalance remains the Fed's rate of 3.75–4.00% and the US economy's resilience noted by regulators. The interest rate differential remains significant. However, the Friday decline in US bond yields was accompanied by a strengthening yen: this reaction shows that the dollar's advantage is sensitive to revisions in rate expectations and does not guarantee pair growth.

Today, Japan's Finance Minister again confirmed readiness to respond to excessive speculative movements. This is a warning, not a report of intervention. Combined with the prospect of policy tightening, it limits the potential for yen weakening. The baseline scenario for USDJPY allows for a decline; strong ISM data and a resumption of US yield growth could cancel it out.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3385, SL 1.3355, TP 1.3445

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

The pound starts the week with support from expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England. After last week's budget, the market did not receive a new reason for a sharp re-evaluation of UK financial risks. Attention has shifted to the regulator's meeting: the probability of an interest rate hike, as assessed by the money market on Friday, was almost fully priced in.

This assessment reflects concerns that rising energy costs will maintain inflationary pressure. Higher expected yields on UK assets help the pound maintain demand. However, a significant part of this argument is already accounted for, so expectation alone is insufficient for strong growth. The dollar also retains its interest rate support: the Fed kept the rate in the 3.75–4.00% range.

The next test of relative currency strength is the US ISM Manufacturing Index. A weak report could give the pound new momentum, while strong business activity would support the dollar and cast doubt on the idea. As long as budget risk has not intensified and expectations of tighter UK policy remain, GBPUSD has grounds for moderate growth, distinguishing it from the euro.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1165, SL 1.1190, TP 1.1110

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

EURUSD:

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Fitch's downgrade of France's rating outlook to negative after Friday's close has added specific risk to the euro at the start of the week. The decision intensifies scrutiny on the sustainability of public finances and borrowing costs. This is unfavorable for the single currency: investors must factor in budget uncertainty even in the absence of a broad-based dollar rally.

On October 29, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50%. The regulator acknowledged that rising energy prices simultaneously increase inflation risks and worsen growth prospects. However, tighter financial conditions are already restraining the economy. Therefore, high inflation alone does not signal an imminent rate hike and currently does not give the euro a convincing interest rate advantage.

Today, the manufacturing ISM index will test the resilience of the US economy. A strong result could support the dollar, while a weak one could weaken it and alter the scenario. Until the data release, the fresh French factor appears more significant for the euro than expectations of ECB policy changes. Given ongoing budget uncertainty, the base idea for EURUSD suggests a decline.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.40, SL 157.80, TP 156.60

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 30 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan today kept the interest rate at 1.25%, simultaneously raising its inflation forecast and confirming its readiness to continue policy tightening. This stance is crucial for the yen: an expected pause does not mean abandoning future hikes. The regulator's chief press conference will serve as a test of how convincingly he reaffirms the further course.

The grounds for maintaining strict policy remain: October Tokyo inflation excluding fresh food was 2.6% year-on-year, above the regulator's target. The indicator slowed slightly from September, so it does not guarantee an immediate rate decision. However, the sustainability of price growth supports expectations of further narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US.

The decline in US bond yields strengthens this argument and reduces the attractiveness of the dollar against the yen. The interest rate differential still favors the US, while cautious comments from the Bank of Japan could trigger a reverse reaction. The risk of currency intervention does not serve as the basis for the idea: given the current combination of yields and regulator signals, the base scenario for USDJPY implies a decline.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3395, SL 1.3365, TP 1.3470

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 30 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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The British pound retains local support amid expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England next week. The market has almost fully priced in such a move following higher-than-expected September inflation and accelerating wage growth. These factors prevent the regulator from easing policy and support the attractiveness of the pound relative to currencies with less pronounced inflationary pressure.

For GBPUSD, this factor coincided with a decline in US yields. Purchases of US bonds amid concerns over the technology sector weaken the dollar's yield advantage. However, the Fed's decision to hold rates steady does not signal a shift toward cutting: persistent inflation leaves open the risk of further tightening and limits the scope for potential pound strength.

A significant portion of the expected Bank of England decision is already priced in, so a mere expectation of a rate hike is insufficient for sustained growth. Expensive energy also reduces the real income of British consumers. Nevertheless, if the dollar remains weak, the base case allows for GBPUSD growth. A return of demand for the dollar and rising US yields could change this outlook.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1190, SL 1.1165, TP 1.1245

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 30 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The ECB kept rates unchanged but warned of rising inflation risks due to expensive energy. This leaves room for further borrowing cost hikes and limits downward pressure on the euro. At the same time, higher fuel costs worsen the outlook for the Eurozone economy: for the single currency, it is not price increases themselves that matter, but the regulator's readiness to respond.

In the current session, the euro's advantage is primarily linked to falling US bond yields. Concerns about AI spending have boosted demand for US debt, driving yields down. For the dollar, this weakens interest rate support, although the Fed retains the option of further rate hikes after a pause this week.

France's debt issues and uncertainty surrounding future ECB leadership are capping the European currency's potential. A resumption of rising US yields could restore the dollar's advantage. Until then, the base scenario for EURUSD allows for moderate strengthening: the reduced attractiveness of US rates outweighs local risks, but does not eliminate them.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.75, SL 158.10, TP 157.00

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change

USDJPY:

The decline in US Treasury yields following the Fed meeting has improved conditions for the yen. For USDJPY, what matters is the yield differential between the two countries: when US debt market rates fall, the advantage of investing in the dollar diminishes. This creates prerequisites for a moderate decline in the pair, although US yields remain high.

The Bank of Japan begins its two-day meeting; a decision is expected on Friday. The base forecast assumes the rate will be maintained at 1.25%, but attention is focused on the prospects of a new hike. The risk of more persistent inflation allows the regulator to continue gradual tightening. Therefore, an expected pause does not itself imply a refusal to further narrow the interest rate gap.

Against the yen works the persisting interest rate differential: the Fed maintains the range of 3.75–4.00%, and inflation in the US remains elevated. A strong US GDP report could restore yields and change the direction of the pair. A possible reaction from Japanese authorities adds uncertainty but does not serve as the basis for the idea. As long as US yield declines persist, the scenario allows for yen strengthening ahead of the Bank of Japan's meeting results.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3320, SL 1.3290, TP 1.3385

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change

GBPUSD:

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UK inflation continues to provide interest rate support for the pound: in September, consumer prices rose by 3.5% year-on-year after 3.1% in August, while services price growth accelerated to 3.7%. Such data complicate the Bank of England's policy easing and support expectations of a rate hike at the November meeting. This creates a foundation for the pound's resilience against the dollar.

Yesterday's cautious UK budget did not cause significant currency strengthening. Investors still focus on debt servicing costs and the impact of tax decisions on demand. Therefore, inflationary support does not guarantee an unconditional advantage for the pound: deteriorating confidence in public finances could outweigh expectations of higher rates.

For today's session, the dollar's reaction to the Fed pause is crucial. The decline in US yields after the press conference reduces pressure on GBPUSD, although the US regulator has retained the possibility of tightening. GDP publication will test the resilience of the US economy: a strong result could restore demand for the dollar. In the absence of such a signal, the combination of British inflation and weaker dollar yields allows for pair growth.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1145, SL 1.1120, TP 1.1200

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP change

16:15 EET. EUR - ECB interest rate decision

16:45 EET. EUR - ECB press conference

EURUSD:

Today's ECB meeting will determine whether the euro can capitalize on the dollar's weakness following the Fed's decision. The market expects European rates to remain unchanged, but high energy costs support the probability of further tightening. For the single currency, the key factor is not the pause itself, but the assessment of inflation and the regulator's readiness to return to raising borrowing costs.

Yesterday, the Fed kept its rate in the range of 3.75–4.00%. Following remarks from its Chair, US bond yields fell: the market did not receive clear confirmation of a December rate hike. This weakens the dollar's interest rate argument. At the same time, strong US economic growth and persistent inflation limit grounds for a prolonged decline in the US currency.

Rising French bond yields complicate the situation for the euro by making credit more expensive and restraining the economy. Today, strong US GDP data or an ECB focus on deteriorating financing conditions could cancel out the pair's upside scenario. However, if the European regulator maintains attention on inflation risks and US yields do not recover, the fundamental backdrop allows for an increase in EURUSD.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.95, SL 157.60, TP 158.65

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

USDJPY:

The yield on US ten-year bonds remains around 5%, maintaining the dollar's interest rate support against the yen ahead of the Fed's decision. In the absence of a signal for imminent policy easing, US assets may retain their appeal. However, the mere maintenance of the rate is already expected by the market and does not guarantee further USDJPY growth: December guidance will be decisive.

The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Friday; current expectations suggest a pause. Without a fresh signal to accelerate tightening, it is difficult for the yen to quickly close the interest rate gap. At the same time, rising inflation risks could prompt the Japanese regulator to adopt stricter stances, so the expectation of the meeting limits confidence in continued yen weakening.

Yesterday, the Japanese Finance Minister again stated readiness for decisive action in the foreign exchange market. This poses a specific risk to the bullish idea, although the warning does not yet mean an intervention has been carried out. As long as US yields remain stable, their support for the dollar only moderately outweighs this risk. The base scenario allows for an increase in USDJPY; a decline in yields after the Fed could cancel it out.

Trading idea: BUY 157.95, SL 157.60, TP 158.65

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3300, SL 1.3335, TP 1.3230

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. GBP - Annual Budget

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

The British budget today will become a separate test of confidence in the pound. The government must combine support for households with control over borrowing. Rising debt servicing costs narrow the room for new spending: measures without convincing funding may increase the risk premium on UK assets and pressure on the national currency.

Expected tax changes could finance population support, but simultaneously limit business activity. For the Bank of England, this complicates the choice between curbing inflation and preserving demand. Until details are published, the budget cannot be considered either an economic stimulus or grounds for a rate hike. The pound will gain support if the plan strengthens confidence in public finances.

In the evening, attention will shift to the Fed's decision: caution by the US regulator in assessing inflation may preserve the dollar's attractiveness. A budget calmly accepted by the market or softer signals from the US could cancel out the idea of a decline. As long as budget uncertainty remains and the dollar retains its interest-rate backing, the GBPUSD scenario allows for downward movement.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1125, SL 1.1150, TP 1.1070

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

EURUSD:

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Tightening of credit access in the eurozone limits the euro's prospects ahead of the Fed's decision. Yesterday's ECB survey showed a decline in mortgage demand and stricter bank conditions. At the same time, lending to businesses and households continues to grow, so this refers to a gradual cooling rather than a sharp downturn. For the euro, such a backdrop reduces the credibility of expectations for further rate hikes.

Today, the US regulator will announce its monetary policy decision. Maintaining the rate itself does not give the dollar a new advantage: signals about the December meeting are more important. If the Fed maintains its readiness to respond to inflation, demand for the dollar may remain supported. Conversely, a more dovish assessment of price risks could quickly change the current scenario.

Ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, expensive energy and budget uncertainty in France further complicate the position of the single currency. These risks are already partially reflected in the price, so the downside potential should not be overestimated. With the Fed maintaining a cautious approach to easing policy, the priority for EURUSD remains a moderate weakening of the euro.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.70, SL 157.35, TP 158.45

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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The renewed interest in tech stocks is weakening demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency. Following Wall Street's recovery, Asian stock markets are also rising today. This reduces the need for protection against market volatility and creates conditions for USDJPY to rise. However, the durability of this sentiment remains to be tested by corporate earnings reports.

Fresh Japanese statistics limit the potential for yen weakness. Business service prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, maintaining arguments for further policy tightening. Nevertheless, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its rate at 1.25% during Friday's meeting. The regulator's gradual approach leaves a significant interest rate gap with the US.

Therefore, yields on US assets continue to support the dollar, although the Fed may also take a pause. For the current day, the combination of the interest rate differential and declining safe-haven demand allows for moderate growth in USDJPY. Resumption of equity sales or heightened expectations of an imminent Japanese rate hike would alter this scenario; the risk of a reaction from Japanese authorities also requires a cautious assessment of the potential.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3340, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3275

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

Ahead of tomorrow's UK budget, investors are adopting a more cautious stance toward the pound. Expectations of restrained spending and adherence to fiscal rules have already improved sentiment toward government bonds, but simultaneously increased the risk of disappointment. Yesterday, the British currency weakened as market participants avoided large positions ahead of the announcement of the government's financial plans.

The Bank of England's position argues against further decline. Recent statements by its representatives indicate heightened attention to inflation and allow for an interest rate hike as early as November. This expectation supports the attractiveness of the pound, although the decision has not yet been made. Until new confirmation appears, it is more likely to limit losses than provide an independent reason for sustained growth.

The US dollar retains support from expectations of strict Federal Reserve policy, despite a likely pause at the next meeting. As long as budgetary uncertainty dampens demand for the pound, the daily scenario allows for a decline in GBPUSD. Its risks include convincing signals of fiscal discipline and weakening expectations of further rate hikes in the US: both factors could restore the advantage to the British currency.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3340, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3275

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1170, SL 1.1195, TP 1.1115

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

The French debt market is once again becoming a source of pressure on the euro. Sales of government bonds have intensified concerns about budget sustainability and increased the risk premium demanded by investors. This is unfavorable for the single currency: expensive borrowing complicates financial recovery and shifts attention back to the vulnerability of the Eurozone economy.

Meanwhile, German business is sending more encouraging signals. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 90.2 in October from 89.9 points, and companies' expectations improved. This supports the euro, but the assessment of current conditions weakened. Recovery remains uneven so far, so an improvement in sentiment alone is insufficient to eliminate the region's debt and energy risks.

In the US, the expected Fed pause does not mean the end of rate hikes: inflationary concerns persist. This backdrop leaves the dollar with interest rate support ahead of tomorrow's decision. Softer signals from the US regulator could alter the balance of factors. As long as French risks remain, the base scenario for EURUSD suggests a moderate decline.

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Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92

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For gold, the main check of the week will be the Fed's position. The market mostly expects to keep the rate on October 28, while the decline in US yields at the beginning of the week reduces the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets relative to metal. A weaker dollar also facilitates buying gold with other currencies. This combination creates conditions for XAUUSD recovery.

However, the expected pause does not yet mean the end of tightening: expensive energy supports inflationary risks and expectations of a December rate hike. The PCE release will test the sustainability of these concerns. As long as yields do not resume rising, the weekly scenario allows for gold strength; hard signals from the Fed or accelerating inflation could cancel this out.

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#SP500: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444

Reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon will be the main test for US stocks. After recent disappointments, investors are more closely evaluating the return on AI spending. Expected earnings growth supports the market, but high expectations raise the cost of weak forecasts. For #SP500, this maintains the risk of sales even with formal beats in estimates for the past quarter.

Declining US yields and a potential Fed pause ease the cost of money, however, the prospect of another rate hike limits this effect. Expensive energy simultaneously increases corporate costs and consumer expenses. As long as reports do not dispel doubts about future profits, the weekly priority remains index decline. Strong company forecasts could change this scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444

#BRENT: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18

Oil begins the week under the influence of new diplomatic efforts around Iran. Reports of Qatari mediation reduce fears of further supply deterioration and provide grounds to reduce the risk premium for disruptions. This supports the downside scenario for #BRENT, although negotiations have not yet confirmed either a sustainable cessation of conflict or a recovery in oil exports.

Threats to energy infrastructure and shipping remain, so the potential for cheaper prices depends on news regarding transport security. US inventory data will help assess raw material availability, but one cannot assume inventory growth as a fact in advance. With continued diplomatic contacts and no new major disruptions, pressure on oil may persist; escalation could quickly invalidate the sell idea.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 156.80, SL 157.20, TP 155.90

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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The rise in Japanese government bond yields is drawing attention to further steps by the Bank of Japan. At the beginning of the week, the yield on ten-year bonds rose to 2.81%, and two-year bonds to 1.885%. The market mostly expects the rate to remain unchanged at the next meeting, but also assesses the possibility of subsequent tightening. For the yen, the prospect of a gradual narrowing of the interest rate gap with the US is important.

American bonds, on the contrary, maintain demand after the recent exit of investors from risk. The decrease in their yields reduces the advantage of investments in the dollar and supports the yen. Caution in stock markets also maintains interest in the Japanese currency as a safe-haven asset. Together, these circumstances provide a fundamental basis for continuing the decline of USDJPY within the current session.

The limitation of this scenario is Japan's dependence on energy imports: expensive oil increases the country's expenses and can weaken the yen. In addition, expectations of a new Fed rate hike later in the year continue to support the dollar. Therefore, the downside potential is assessed as moderate. As long as US yields do not return to growth, the current difference in dynamics of debt markets leaves priority to the strengthening of the yen.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3380, SL 1.3345, TP 1.3460

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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British business activity provides support for the pound at the start of the week. The preliminary composite PMI in October rose to 53.1 from 52.0 in September, showing the fastest expansion since February. Accelerating new orders and renewed hiring indicate business resilience. For the currency, this is an argument for maintaining the Bank of England's tight policy, despite expensive energy.

Increased price pressure in the company survey supports expectations of a British rate hike in November. The decision has not yet been made, but such expectations help the pound maintain its interest rate appeal. At the same time, declining US Treasury yields weaken the dollar. These factors act in the same direction and create conditions for continued growth of GBPUSD.

The consumer sector looks weaker: retail sales in September fell by 0.4% against an expected decline of 0.1%. This limits optimism about the economy and leaves the risk of demand slowdown. New growth in US yields could also change the intraday scenario. So far, strong business activity supports expectations for the Bank of England, with the advantage in the pair remaining with the pound.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1220, SL 1.1195, TP 1.1275

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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Moody's decision to maintain France's rating has weakened one of the near-term risks for the euro. On Friday, the rating remained at Aa3, although the outlook is still negative. After expectations of a downgrade, this gives the European currency reason to recover. However, budget disagreements and high borrowing costs continue to limit confidence in French assets.

The beginning of the week is also accompanied by a decline in US bond yields. This reduces the interest rate attractiveness of the dollar and helps EURUSD. The market mainly expects the Fed and ECB to maintain rates at upcoming meetings, so attention shifts to further signals from regulators. A pause by the Fed itself does not necessarily mean a refusal to raise rates subsequently.

Weak October business activity data in France remind us of the vulnerability of the regional economy. Therefore, improved sentiment following the rating decision does not eliminate all reasons for caution. A resumption of rising US yields or debt tension could bring pressure back on the euro. As long as these risks do not intensify, the combination of local relief and a weaker dollar supports the EURUSD growth scenario.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 156.90, SL 157.25, TP 156.20

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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Accelerating inflation in Japan strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The September core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year-on-year after 1.7% in August. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4% from 1.9%. This supports the yen through expectations of higher cost of money, although an immediate decision by the regulator is not predetermined.

At the same time, concerns over artificial intelligence spending have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Purchases of Treasury bonds lowered US yields, weakening one of the main arguments for the dollar against the yen. For USDJPY, the key combination is two factors: declining dollar investment yields and more compelling grounds for further Japanese policy tightening.

Against a decline in the pair are the persistent interest rate differential and the risk of renewed US yield growth due to expensive oil. At its next meeting, the Bank of Japan may take a pause, so the inflation report does not guarantee continued yen strengthening. With sustained demand for safe-haven assets, however, its fundamental advantages still allow for further USDJPY downside.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3390, SL 1.3360, TP 1.3465

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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Expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England are supporting the pound after this week's inflation data came in above forecasts. The money market is pricing in the first tightening at the November meeting. This is an expectation, not a decision already made, but it maintains interest in the British currency and helps it better withstand deteriorating sentiment in global markets.

An additional advantage is the relative resilience of British assets. Yesterday, UK government bond yields remained almost unchanged despite a noticeable rise in borrowing costs in France, Italy, and Belgium. The pound gains local support, although the upcoming budget remains a test of investor confidence: doubts about funding expenditures could quickly weaken this argument.

On the US side, declining Treasury yields reduce the interest rate support for the dollar. Today's business activity indices may alter expectations for both economies, so part of the pound's advantages is already priced in. If British data does not disappoint and demand for the dollar does not strengthen, the combination of Bank of England expectations and falling US yields allows for GBPUSD growth.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1210, SL 1.1235, TP 1.1155

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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Debt stress in France remains the main constraint for the euro. On Thursday, French bond yields hit new 24-year highs, while the UK debt market appeared more resilient. The rise in risk premium reflects doubts about Paris's ability to repair public finances and undermines the attractiveness of eurozone assets.

The dollar's weakness partially eases this pressure: the sell-off in tech stocks boosted demand for US Treasury bonds and lowered their yields. However, the European currency does not gain full advantage as investors simultaneously reduce risk exposure within Europe itself. The expected ECB pause next week currently offers no new interest rate argument for the euro.

Today, preliminary business activity indices will test the resilience of the eurozone economy. Strong results could support the euro, especially if US yields continue to fall. Meanwhile, expensive energy complicates the situation for European businesses. As long as debt risks persist, local euro vulnerability outweighs the help from a weaker dollar, maintaining the EURUSD downside scenario.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.65, SL 157.95, TP 157.00

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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The decline in yields on US bonds reduces the advantage of dollar investments over Japanese ones and maintains pressure on USDJPY. For the current session, this is more important than the possibility of a new Fed rate hike in December: expectations of future tightening have not yet returned sustained demand for the dollar. Maintaining lower yields supports the scenario of yen strengthening.

From the Japanese side, Kazuo Ueda's statements about basic inflation approaching the 2% target are significant. They leave room for further rate hikes, although the market does not expect an immediate decision. This background limits the willingness to increase yen sales. The risk of official intervention is considered separately, but a new intervention is not assumed as an already accomplished fact.

The interest rate differential remains favorable to the dollar, and energy and geopolitical risks could return demand for the US currency. Moreover, part of the pair's decline has already occurred, so the potential for continuation is assessed cautiously. As long as US yields do not turn upward, the priority remains a decline in USDJPY; their recovery would become the main reason to revise the scenario.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3400, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3460

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

13:50 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

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Andrew Bailey's speech today will serve as a test of market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of England. After annual inflation accelerated from 3.1% to 3.5% in September, the market has almost fully priced in a tightening move in November. If the regulator's head confirms concerns about rising prices, the pound's advantage may persist, although the inflation result itself is already partially reflected in quotes.

Price pressure is not limited to fuel: annual services inflation based on the consumer price index including owner-occupier housing costs rose from 3.6% to 3.9%. This increases the risk of prolonged price increases within the economy. For the pound, this picture means that the regulator still has grounds to keep money expensive and support yields on investments in British currency.

The decline in US bond yields helps the pound, but expectations for a December Fed rate hike limit growth potential. Therefore, the key factor for the session will be the tone of Bailey's speech. In the absence of signals against a November tightening, the base scenario allows for GBPUSD growth; an emphasis on economic weakness could change interest rate expectations and cancel the idea.

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