Forex market Fresh Forecast for today

Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: BUY 4202.88, SL 4142.88, TP 4334.88

Gold starts the week with support from a weakening dollar and falling oil prices. Cheaper energy reduces fears of an immediate Fed tightening and improves the position of the metal, which does not yield interest income. At the same time, uncertainty in the Middle East maintains interest in safe-haven assets, despite reports of an energy truce in Europe.

The main test will be US inflation data: a slowdown could ease yield pressure and support XAUUSD. However, the October Fed pause is already largely expected, and the probability of a December rate hike remains high. Therefore, the growth idea assumes a calm reaction from the bond market to the statistics; accelerating prices and a strengthening dollar could cancel it out.

Trading idea: BUY 4202.88, SL 4142.88, TP 4334.88

#SP500: BUY 7836, SL 7766, TP 8011

The corporate earnings season becomes the main test for US stocks. Results from major banks are scheduled for Tuesday, and the current valuation of quarterly profit growth for index companies stands at 29.6% year-on-year. This supports demand for stocks, but strong expectations require confirmation: past results are important, but so are company forecasts.

Falling oil prices can ease business costs and reduce concerns about further rate hikes. The limitation remains the high yield on US bonds: it raises investors' requirements for corporate profits. If earnings meet expectations and inflation data does not intensify the pressure on the cost of money, the weekly scenario allows for #SP500 growth.

Trading idea: BUY 7836, SL 7766, TP 8011

#BRENT: SELL 101.36, SL 104.36, TP 95.36

For oil, the main change has been expectations of supply expansion. US statements about supplying Russian diesel and stopping attacks on energy facilities weaken deficit fears. However, the durability of the announced truce has not yet been confirmed by both sides. Pressure on #BRENT arises through reduced disruption risk, not through proven production increases.

At the same time, attacks on tankers and the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East maintain the threat to export flows. Therefore, the weekly downside idea depends on the emergence of confirmations regarding supply availability and the absence of new serious disruptions. While the market assesses the possibility of a deficit reduction, selling #BRENT remains the base scenario; worsening transport security could cancel it out.

Trading idea: SELL 101.36, SL 104.36, TP 95.36

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 158.20, SL 158.50, TP 157.60

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

After raising the rate to 1.25% in September, the Bank of Japan remains on a path of policy tightening. Expectations of another hike by year-end support the yen, although the dollar's interest advantage persists. Japanese markets are closed today for a holiday, so reduced liquidity may amplify the currency's reaction to external news without changes in the domestic economic picture.

The decline in oil prices at the start of the week potentially eases Japan's energy import costs. This is a favorable factor for the yen, while for the dollar, reduced energy pressure diminishes the urgency for further Federal Reserve tightening. In the current session, this combination allows for a reduction in demand for dollar positions, but it does not itself prove a reversal of US monetary policy.

High yields on US assets limit the scope for a bearish USDJPY idea. A resumption of oil price growth could again worsen the yen's position, and the risk of action by Japanese authorities cannot be considered confirmed intervention. With a calmer energy backdrop, expectations of a Japanese rate hike provide grounds for moderate yen strengthening.

Trading idea: SELL 158.20, SL 158.50, TP 157.60

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3245, SL 1.3215, TP 1.3320

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

British authorities start the week with a focus on fiscal discipline. Ahead of meetings with the International Monetary Fund, the finance minister stated the need for convincing plans to limit borrowing. For the pound, such an approach may support confidence in public finances, but promises still need to be backed by decisions, and spending cuts could restrain demand.

The Bank of England holds the rate at 3.75% and warns of the risk of inflation becoming entrenched due to expensive energy. This maintains the possibility of policy tightening and interest rate support for the British currency. At the same time, a weaker labor market and high borrowing costs limit the scope for further rate hikes: inflationary risk does not equate to a taken decision.

Today, falling oil prices give the pound an opportunity to strengthen against the dollar, easing concerns about further acceleration of US inflation. New budget doubts or worsening developments in the Middle East could interrupt this scenario. As long as energy pressure eases and the Bank of England maintains a hawkish stance, moderate growth is likely for GBPUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3245, SL 1.3215, TP 1.3320

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1210, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1265

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

The European Central Bank maintains its readiness to curb inflation. The October 8th protocol confirmed the unanimous September rate hike but did not set a mandatory trajectory for further tightening. For the euro, this means preserving interest rate support, although expensive credit and budget difficulties in individual countries limit the attractiveness of European assets.

At the beginning of the week, the decline in oil prices following reports of an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine weakens one of the arguments for new Federal Reserve rate hikes. Ahead of US inflation data, the market largely expects an October pause. This creates an opportunity for moderate euro strengthening if demand for the dollar does not receive new momentum.

France's debt risks remain, so a sustained improvement in the European backdrop is not yet confirmed. A resumption of energy price growth or an escalation of the Middle East conflict could return advantage to the dollar. However, on the horizon of the current session, easing oil pressure allows for limited EURUSD growth while maintaining expectations of a Fed pause.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1210, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1265

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 158.00, SL 158.35, TP 157.30

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

USDJPY:

Declining US bond yields weaken one of the main arguments in favor of USDJPY. Following the successful issuance of thirty-year bonds, demand for US debt assets increased while their yields decreased. The dollar's interest rate advantage remains, but its weakening at this stage may reduce interest in new purchases of the US currency against the yen.

Today, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that authorities will continue to closely monitor exchange rates and prices and will respond accordingly. This increases market sensitivity to official signals. The statement does not confirm intervention, but along with respect for the Bank of Japan's independence, it supports arguments in favor of the yen.

Meanwhile, Japanese household spending fell by 3.1% year-on-year in August, limiting grounds for a rapid rate hike. Therefore, the idea of lowering USDJPY relies primarily on US yields. Rising inflation expectations in today's University of Michigan report could restore the advantage to the dollar. With no such signal yet, the fundamental backdrop allows for moderate yen strengthening.

Trading idea: SELL 158.00, SL 158.35, TP 157.30

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: BUY 1.3240, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3315

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

GBPUSD:

The Bank of England remains focused on inflation: yesterday, Chief Economist Hugh Pill emphasized the need to curb price growth. At the September meeting, he and two other participants advocated for a rate hike. For the pound, this supports expectations of policy tightening, although the majority's decision to hold rates shows that the next step is not yet predetermined.

UK budgetary risks limit the strength of this argument. Andrew Bailey highlighted the importance of credible fiscal policy amid stress in debt markets. Rising bond yields may reflect an increased risk premium rather than improved prospects for the pound. Therefore, confidence in funding government spending is crucial for sustained currency growth.

In the current session, the pound is aided by a slowdown in dollar strengthening as US yields decline. The University of Michigan report could amplify this effect if it confirms deteriorating consumer sentiment. Conversely, a strong result alongside rising inflation expectations would support the dollar. With the US interest rate momentum weakening, BoE expectations provide grounds for moderate GBPUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3240, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3315

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: BUY 1.1225, SL 1.1200, TP 1.1275

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

Stabilization in the French debt market is easing some pressure on the euro. After a sharp rise in borrowing costs, investors have become more calm about European assets, although the difficult path to reducing the budget deficit remains a risk. For EURUSD, this creates conditions for a moderate recovery in the current session, without assuming a complete disappearance of debt problems.

The ECB yesterday signaled that it has no intention of rushing into another rate hike: the regulator currently does not see strong pass-through of energy inflation into wages. This limits percentage support for the euro. However, lower US yields have weakened the dollar's advantage, so for today's dynamics, the weakening of the US interest impulse is more important than expectations of rapid ECB tightening.

Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will test the resilience of demand in the US. A weak result could prolong the dollar's weakness, while rising inflation expectations could renew interest in the American currency. With a calmer debt backdrop remaining, the base scenario for EURUSD allows for further growth, but its potential is limited by persistent Eurozone risks.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1225, SL 1.1200, TP 1.1275

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.20, SL 157.85, TP 158.90

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

USDJPY:

Japan reported an August current account surplus of 4.062 trillion yen against expected 3.194 trillion. The strong result improves the country's external balance and provides local support for the yen. However, it does not imply an immediate change in monetary policy: the currency reaction to the data has not yet outweighed the yield advantage of US assets.

The Bank of Japan maintains its course toward gradual tightening. Ayano Sato supported the idea of raising rates in several steps this week, which limits the potential for yen weakness. Nevertheless, a step-by-step approach does not imply a rapid narrowing of the interest rate gap. US 10-year bond yields remain around 5.3%, supporting the attractiveness of dollar investments.

The September FOMC minutes retained the probability of further rate hikes, although the market largely expects a pause in October. Today, weak US employment data or declining yields could shift this backdrop in favor of the yen. The risk of Japanese authorities' intervention also limits the scale of the move. As long as dollar yields remain high, the base scenario for USDJPY allows for moderate continuation of the uptrend.

Trading idea: BUY 158.20, SL 157.85, TP 158.90

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3210, SL 1.3245, TP 1.3135

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

GBPUSD:

Andrew Bailey's speech today will be a test of expectations for UK interest rates. The Bank of England maintains its rate at 3.75%, and at the last meeting, three out of nine committee members voted for a hike. This supports the pound, but high energy costs are simultaneously weighing on household incomes. For the currency, it is important that the regulator is willing to contain inflation without excessively weakening demand.

The British regulator notes soft conditions in the labor market and limited signs of the energy shock being passed on to wages and prices. Therefore, higher fuel costs alone do not guarantee a rate hike. As long as most prefer to wait, the pound has difficulty gaining a sustainable advantage over the dollar, especially with persistent inflation risks in the US.

The Fed, by contrast, leaves open the possibility of further policy tightening until the end of the year. Today, US jobless claims will test employment resilience: a significant deterioration would weaken the case for the dollar. Bailey's hawkish statements could also shift expectations. In the absence of such signals, the dollar's advantage remains, and the trading idea for GBPUSD suggests moderate downside.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3210, SL 1.3245, TP 1.3135

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1205, SL 1.1230, TP 1.1150

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Report

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

EURUSD:

France's debt risks are once again complicating the euro's position. Yesterday, yields on French 10-year bonds rose by nearly 12 basis points, while German yields remained virtually unchanged. This divergence reflects an increased risk premium rather than an advantage for the European currency. Rising debt servicing costs narrow budgetary flexibility and undermine confidence in Eurozone assets.

The published FOMC minutes showed that most participants at the September meeting considered another rate hike before year-end likely necessary. The regulator fears that expensive energy and high investment demand could entrench inflation. For the dollar, this maintains interest rate support, although future decisions will depend on incoming data.

Today, the ECB minutes and US jobless claims are important. A more hawkish stance from the European regulator or worsening US data could support the euro. Following yesterday's decline, part of the negative backdrop is already priced in, so potential is assessed as moderate. With debt tensions persisting, the fundamental scenario allows for further weakening of EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1205, SL 1.1230, TP 1.1150

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.40, SL 158.05, TP 159.15

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy

21:00 EET. USD - Release of the FOMC meeting minutes

USDJPY:

The US-Japan yield spread continues to support USDJPY despite new arguments in favor of the yen. For investors, not only the next step by central banks matters, but also the return on deploying funds starting today. High yields on US bonds keep dollar assets attractive, while Japanese policy implies gradual changes.

Real wages in Japan rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, and nominal wages by 3.8%, slightly exceeding expectations. This improves purchasing power and strengthens the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, the growth of real wages has slowed, and statements about gradual tightening do not confirm a sharp reduction in the interest rate differential in the near term.

Weaker US inflation and employment data limit the dollar's potential; signals from the FOMC minutes are important today. A decline in US yields or new official warnings from Japan could change the scenario. As long as the advantage of dollar assets outweighs support for the yen, the idea of USDJPY rising remains without expecting accelerated movement.

Trading idea: BUY 158.40, SL 158.05, TP 159.15

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3290, TP 1.3170

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy

21:00 EET. USD - Publication of the FOMC meeting minutes

GBPUSD:

The Bank of England maintains reasons to be cautious about inflation. Catherine Mann warned that price growth above target has become entrenched in the economy and could impact upcoming wage negotiations. This supports expectations for a rate hike and demand for the pound. However, the position of one committee member does not yet indicate the majority's readiness to accelerate policy tightening.

For the British economy, high borrowing costs remain a burden: construction activity continued to decline in September, and companies have become more cautious in assessing prospects. Expensive energy is increasing pressure on costs. Therefore, inflationary risks support the pound through rate expectations, but weak domestic demand limits the benefit of this factor for the currency.

The dollar recovers some of yesterday's losses in the morning, although weak US statistics reduce the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate hike. The publication of the minutes could alter this balance of expectations. Currently, British arguments are insufficient to outweigh the recovery in dollar demand; the base idea for GBPUSD suggests a decline, with the risk of reversal if the Fed sends soft signals.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3290, TP 1.3170

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1240, SL 1.1270, TP 1.1180

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy

21:00 EET. USD - Publication of the FOMC meeting minutes

EURUSD:

The decline in French bond yields has eased pressure on the euro, but budgetary promises do not yet mean a resolution to the debt problem. Investors will need to assess their realism and political support. Therefore, improved sentiment reduces the risk of further sales of European assets, but so far does not create a solid basis for strengthening the single currency.

The resurgent rise in oil prices brings attention back to the costs facing the Eurozone economy. Expensive energy supports inflation while simultaneously dampening demand, complicating the ECB's choices. The morning recovery of the dollar shows that yesterday's relief in the European debt market has not yet turned into a sustained revaluation of the euro's advantages over the US currency.

Today, the FOMC meeting minutes will serve as a test of rate expectations. Weak US employment and inflation data reduce the urgency of another rate hike, which limits the dollar's advantage. Softer signals could support the euro, but until confirmed, energy and budget risks maintain grounds for an EURUSD decline scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1240, SL 1.1270, TP 1.1180

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.05, SL 157.70, TP 158.75

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Trade Balance

USDJPY:

High US Treasury yields remain a key argument for the dollar against the yen. Their growth continues even after the reduction of expectations for an October Fed rate hike, as the market factors in inflation and debt risks. For USD/JPY, this maintains the yield advantage of US assets, although the movement of long bonds cannot be fully explained by future Fed decisions.

On the Japanese side, expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes support the yen. However, the possibility of a quick next step depends on strengthening inflation risks, so the current tightening path does not yet eliminate the interest rate differential. Recent warnings from authorities against currency weakness also warrant attention, but have not yet outweighed the support for the dollar from the US debt market.

Slowing services in the US dampen confidence in pair growth, however, intensifying price pressure prevents considering the inflation problem solved. A decline in US yields or new signals of accelerated tightening in Japan could change the scenario. Until such confirmation, the base idea allows for USD/JPY growth, with a moderate target due to the risk of a reaction from Japanese authorities.

Trading idea: BUY 158.05, SL 157.70, TP 158.75

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3215, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3145

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Trade Balance

GBPUSD:

The pound maintains its support due to expectations of a tighter Bank of England policy and the government's focus on fiscal discipline. Its strengthening against the euro shows that European debt issues affect currencies unevenly. However, an advantage over the euro does not mean the same advantage over the dollar: for GBP/USD, the comparison of interest rate prospects and the state of the two economies is more important.

The US services sector continues to expand despite the slowdown in the September ISM index. The rise in purchasing prices indicates that weakening employment has not yet eliminated inflation risks. This allows the market to maintain expectations of further Fed rate hikes, even if the next move is delayed, and supports demand for the dollar through high yields on US assets.

Today, the UK construction PMI will serve as a test of domestic activity resilience. Strong data could boost support for the pound, while weak results would highlight the burden of high rates on the economy. Given the current dollar momentum, local arguments are currently insufficient for sustained GBP/USD growth. The sell idea retains its edge, although BoE support limits the downside scope.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3215, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3145

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1220, SL 1.1250, TP 1.1145

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Trade Balance

EURUSD:

France's fiscal risks remain the main source of weakness for the euro. Rising borrowing costs and political disagreements complicate deficit reduction, while announced early elections in Spain add uncertainty. For the single currency, this means that rising European bond yields currently reflect primarily an increase in risk rather than improved asset attractiveness.

In the US, yesterday's ISM report showed a slowdown in services sector growth but simultaneously heightened inflation concerns: the Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 74 from 72.6. Weak employment data reduced expectations for an October Fed rate hike, yet price pressures continue to justify further tightening. High US bond yields continue to support the dollar.

Today, Eurozone retail sales will test the resilience of consumer demand. A strong result could support the euro, but alone it would not eliminate budget risks. Much of the negative backdrop is already priced in, so the potential for new sales is moderate. As long as debt tensions persist, the base case for EUR/USD remains downward.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1220, SL 1.1250, TP 1.1145

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Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

The weak US employment report sharply reduced the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October: job growth in September amounted to 29 thousand, and data for previous months was revised downward. This weakens pressure from monetary policy and supports demand for gold.

At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remains above 5%, which limits the potential of XAUUSD. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting will be a test of the new scenario, but if expectations of a pause persist, the priority remains with the recovery of gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

#SP500: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835

For the US market, the key change was the reduction in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October after weak employment data. A softer trajectory of the cost of money supports stocks, and Friday's index rise shows that investors currently view slowing hiring more as an argument for a Fed pause.

The limitation remains Treasury bond yields at multi-year highs, increasing requirements for stock valuation. If the Fed minutes do not return the market to tighter expectations, the basic weekly scenario allows for continued growth of #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835

#BRENT: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25

For Brent, the main local factor of the week is supply. OPEC+ maintained its production targets for November, and oil exports from the Middle East have recovered, while G7 countries began releasing part of their emergency reserves. This combination reduces deficit risks and creates downward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical tensions and attacks on infrastructure continue to maintain the risk premium, so declines may remain volatile. However, with high export flows and growing available supply remaining, the basic scenario for the week remains in favor of selling #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.00, SL 157.65, TP 158.85

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Services Business Activity Index

USDJPY:

The yen enters the session with a stronger medium-term fundamental basis than several months ago. The Bank of Japan has accelerated policy normalization, and persistent inflation and wage signals support expectations of further rate hikes. Meanwhile, a recent survey showed slowing activity in the services sector in September after a five-month high, reducing the urgency for more aggressive action by the regulator.

For USD/JPY, the yield spread remains decisive. Despite weak US employment data and a sharp drop in the probability of an October Fed rate hike, US yields remain high and continue to support the dollar against the yen. This advantage no longer looks as one-sided as before, but in the current session it still appears to have more influence than expectations for the next move by the Bank of Japan.

The main risk to pair growth is linked to further declines in US yields, strengthening expectations of a rate hike in Japan, and possible official warnings regarding a weak yen. There is insufficient fresh confirmed signal to make these factors dominant right now. Therefore, after price revision, the base scenario remains upward, but with a moderate target.

Trading idea: BUY 158.00, SL 157.65, TP 158.85

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3240, TP 1.3110

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Composite PMI Index

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Sector Business Activity Index

GBPUSD:

The pound retains a more resilient domestic backdrop than the euro. The upward revision of UK economic growth for the second quarter to 0.5% supported expectations of an additional rate hike by the Bank of England, and the market continues to price in the heightened inflation sensitivity of the British economy. However, these factors are already largely known, whereas today's services sector data should demonstrate the resilience of business activity.

The dollar faces a weak US September labor market, which sharply reduced the probability of another Fed rate hike in October. At the same time, high Treasury yields and demand for the US currency persist. For GBP/USD, this creates a more balanced picture than for the euro, but there is currently insufficient fresh British factor to outweigh the general dollar momentum.

Part of the expected decline has already been realized in the current session, so the remaining potential requires a more moderate assessment. Risks to the scenario are linked to further declines in US yields and strong British statistics that would strengthen expectations for the Bank of England. Until such signals appear, the advantage remains with the continuation of the GBP/USD decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3240, TP 1.3110

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1180, SL 1.1215, TP 1.1095

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI Index

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

The Euro approaches the new session with a noticeably weaker starting position. The fiscal situation in France and the risk of political gridlock continue to weigh on confidence in eurozone assets, while today's final business activity indices will only refine the assessment of growth rates. After a prolonged decline, part of the negative backdrop is already reflected in the price, so further movement requires sustained fresh pressure.

On the US side, the picture is mixed. A weak September employment report significantly reduced the likelihood of another Fed rate hike in October, but high Treasury yields and dollar demand amid stress in debt markets continue to support the US currency. For EUR/USD, this leaves the advantage with the dollar, although its strengthening potential has become less one-sided.

A significant portion of the daily decline has already been realized, so the remaining potential is assessed more cautiously. A reversal factor would be further declines in US yields or noticeably stronger eurozone data. Until that happens, French risks and the relative advantage of the dollar keep the priority on EUR/USD downside.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1180, SL 1.1215, TP 1.1095

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1245, SL 1.1275, TP 1.1170

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

The Euro starts the Friday session with additional pressure from French public finances. The presented budget did not alleviate concerns about the deficit, and the yield spread between French and German bonds widened. Rising borrowing costs in this case reflect an increased risk, so by itself it does not create sustained support for the European currency.

Energy pressures are exacerbating this vulnerability: expensive oil increases corporate costs and complicates the ECB's task, which must simultaneously address inflation and growth risks. The dollar benefits from demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the reduced probability of a near-term Fed rate hike has not yet eliminated the reasons for investors leaving European assets.

Today, US employment data and preliminary eurozone inflation figures could alter rate expectations. Weak US data or more hawkish ECB expectations could support the euro. However, until such confirmation materializes, fiscal and energy risks continue to favor the dollar, so the base scenario for EUR/USD suggests further decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1245, SL 1.1275, TP 1.1170

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3205, SL 1.3245, TP 1.3125

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

The revised UK GDP gave the pound its own argument for resilience: the economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter instead of the initial 0.4%. The improved estimate reduces concerns about weak growth and supports expectations of maintaining the Bank of England's tight policy. However, this data relates to the previous quarter and does not eliminate current risks for consumers.

For the UK, rising energy prices have a dual effect. They can keep inflation high and limit room for easing policy, but simultaneously reduce purchasing power and increase business costs. Therefore, support for the pound from interest rate expectations faces deteriorating demand prospects, and the overall risk-off sentiment strengthens interest in the dollar.

Further GBP/USD dynamics depend on the US employment report, especially wage growth. Strong data could restore expectations for additional Fed tightening; weak data would give the pound an opportunity to recover. As long as domestic positivity does not outweigh defensive demand for the dollar, priority remains with selling the pair given the current external backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3205, SL 1.3245, TP 1.3125

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.95, SL 158.30, TP 157.15

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

Inflation in Tokyo gave the yen fresh support: the core measure excluding fresh food accelerated in September to 2.7% from 1.8%, exceeding expectations of 2.4%. Core inflation excluding fresh food and fuel reached 3%, and services inflation also strengthened. This expands the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, although part of the acceleration is linked to the end of subsidies.

High US bond yields continue to support the dollar, but their rise cannot be fully explained by expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. Softer US inflation and cautious signals from the regulator have reduced the likelihood of an immediate move. Amid European budget risks, safe-haven demand could support both the dollar and the yen, so their ratio requires separate assessment.

For USD/JPY, the new Japanese inflation signal now creates grounds for a decline despite the persistent interest rate differential. The US employment report could cancel this scenario if strong wage growth again fuels expectations of Fed tightening. Prior to the release, the base idea is to sell the pair: yen support relies on new data, not just the risk of currency intervention.

Trading idea: SELL 157.95, SL 158.30, TP 157.15

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.25, SL 158.00, TP 158.85

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

The summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan showed that some executives believe it is necessary to continue raising interest rates, while others allow for faster steps if inflation strengthens. This signal supports the yen. However, cautious assessments of consumption and inflation in the services sector have reduced confidence in an immediate rate hike again, so USD/JPY maintained its upward trend after the publication.

The American side of the pair receives support from high yields on long-term Treasury bonds. Even after a softer Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, long-term rates remained at multi-year highs, and the yield spread continues to work in favor of the dollar. As long as the market reacts more strongly to the US debt market than to the decreased probability of an October Fed move, upside potential remains.

The risk of official warnings or actions by Japan remains and limits the allowable scale of buying, especially after recent government attention to yen weakness. Nevertheless, signals from the Bank of Japan have not yet outweighed the current dollar momentum and American yield advantage. With this combination of factors persisting, the base scenario allows for cautious continuation of USD/JPY growth.

Trading idea: BUY 158.25, SL 158.00, TP 158.85

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3195

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

The British economy proved more resilient than preliminary estimates: Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.5%, and household real disposable incomes recovered. These figures provide local support for the pound. However, higher energy costs and elevated borrowing expenses may dampen economic momentum in upcoming quarters.

The Bank of England's stance also does not appear dovish. In September, the rate was held at 3.75%, but three out of nine committee members voted for a hike, and the regulator assessed inflation risks as skewed upside. This limits the extent of GBP/USD declines but has not yet created enough momentum to overcome broad dollar demand and pressure from high US yields.

Strong GDP data and the likelihood of continued BoE policy tightening act as a counterbalance, so the sell scenario assumes a modest target. The main driver for the current session remains the dollar, which is holding near its two-month high. As long as UK factors only slow rather than reverse this move, priority remains with a moderate decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3195

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1325, SL 1.1355, TP 1.1255

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - ISM Manufacturing Index

EURUSD:

The euro enters the European session around 1.1325 after weakening in September. Accelerating inflation in the largest Eurozone economies and hawkish signals from ECB officials support expectations of further rate hikes. However, the source of price pressure is linked to expensive energy: for the region, this simultaneously means rising costs and deteriorating business activity prospects.

The dollar retains its advantage, although softer-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data reduced the likelihood of an October Fed rate hike. The market is currently more responsive to the rise in yields on long-term US Treasury bonds, which remain near multi-year highs. Data on jobless claims and manufacturing activity could shift expectations, but demand for the dollar remains resilient ahead of their release.

Possible ECB policy tightening currently only limits downward pressure on the euro but does not outweigh high US yields and European energy risks. After a prolonged series of declines, part of the move has already been realized, so the potential for selling is assessed as moderate. Given the fundamental backdrop, the base scenario allows for further EUR/USD decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1325, SL 1.1355, TP 1.1255

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 157.30, SL 157.60, TP 156.55

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - GDP volume change quarter over quarter

USDJPY:

The yen is receiving its own fundamental support, which today has the potential to partially offset the generally strong dollar backdrop. Following the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the market continues to expect further policy normalization, and Japanese authorities have once again emphasized coordination with the US on currency market stability. At a rate around 157, this increases USD/JPY's sensitivity to new official signals.

The dollar continues to be supported by high Treasury yields and a strong US economy, so the fundamental interest rate differential has not completely disappeared. However, John Williams' comments have reduced the urgency for another Fed rate hike, and the market has scaled back expectations for a move at the upcoming meeting. This weakens one of the factors that previously supported the steady rise in USD/JPY.

As a result, the local Japanese factor looks stronger today than in previous sessions. The risk of a regulatory response is not the only argument: it is reinforced by the Bank of Japan's rate hike and a more cautious assessment of the Fed's near-term actions. Given this combination of factors, the base case allows for moderate yen strengthening and a decline in USD/JPY.

Trade idea: SELL 157.30, SL 157.60, TP 156.55

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3240, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3180

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP volume quarter-on-quarter

GBPUSD:

The pound is approaching the European session near three-month lows, although the domestic backdrop in the UK does not appear unequivocally weak. The market anticipates a more hawkish trajectory from the Bank of England due to inflationary pressures, and statements on fiscal discipline have partially supported British assets. These factors limit the pace of GBP/USD decline but have not yet formed a sustained bullish momentum for the pound.

The key external factor remains the divergence between high yields in the US and the more vulnerable valuation of British assets. The dollar is supported by strong US economic data and expectations of another Fed rate hike this year. John Williams' statement reduced the likelihood of immediate tightening in October, but the market still awaits confirmation from inflation and employment data.

For GBP/USD, the picture looks more balanced than for the euro: the Bank of England can contain pressure on the pound, but the overall dollar momentum remains stronger. Given the already realized decline, selling potential is limited, so the base scenario assumes moderate continuation of the move, unless US statistics provide grounds for a significant revision of Fed expectations.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1340, SL 1.1365, TP 1.1290

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP change

EURUSD:

The euro ends September at multi-month lows, and its fundamental backdrop remains vulnerable. The energy shock is once again raising costs for the eurozone, while political uncertainty in France is increasing attention on debt risks. Meanwhile, the ECB maintains a cautious approach to further tightening, so inflation growth has not yet created a sustainable interest rate advantage for the euro.

The dollar, on the other hand, holds support thanks to the strong US economy and high Treasury yields. Comments from John Williams reduced the urgency of another Fed rate hike, but did not rule out the possibility of one more move by year-end. For the market, this means that today's inflation and employment data could adjust expectations, but the underlying bias in favor of the dollar remains intact.

The decline in EUR/USD has already been significant, so the potential for further movement should be assessed more cautiously than in previous releases. Nevertheless, local eurozone risks remain notable, and the US currency continues to receive support from interest rate differentials. Given the current backdrop, the base case allows for further moderate downside in the pair.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1340, SL 1.1365, TP 1.1290

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.45, SL 157.15, TP 158.15

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

USDJPY:

USD/JPY remains above 157.00 as rising US bond yields once again boost the dollar's appeal. The market is pricing in more than a 70% probability of an October rate hike by the Federal Reserve, while the yield on two-year US bonds has approached 5%. This maintains the advantage of the US currency even after the recent tightening of policy by the Bank of Japan.

The yen, meanwhile, receives support from the stance of Japanese authorities. Tokyo and Washington have expressed concern over its undervaluation, and Japan's chief currency diplomat urged the market to take the joint signal seriously. The Bank of Japan also maintains its course toward raising rates. These factors increase the risk of sharp downward moves for the pair, but they do not yet eliminate the significant gap between yields in the US and Japan.

In the current session, the key question remains whether US data will support expectations of further Fed policy tightening. If indicators are weak, Japan's official signal could accelerate yen strengthening, limiting the pair's upside potential. Nevertheless, the dollar momentum and high US yields still outweigh local risks, maintaining a moderate bias toward an increase in USD/JPY.

Trading idea: BUY 157.45, SL 157.15, TP 158.15

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3240, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3170

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USA - Job openings and labor turnover from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD remains near recent monthly lows, although expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England limit pressure on the pound. The rise in oil and gas prices intensifies inflation risks for the UK, while statements from regulators' leadership have led the market to increase the probability of a rate hike. This factor supports the British currency but has not yet ensured a sustainable recovery of the pair.

The dollar gains strong momentum from the US debt market. Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs, and the probability of an FOMC rate hike in October exceeded 70%. This combination is particularly unfavorable for the pound: more expensive energy simultaneously pushes inflation up and increases costs for the British economy, limiting the effect of tightening policy expectations.

Upcoming US data on the labor market and inflation remain uncertain, so dollar selling may intensify with weak statistics. However, at the start of the current session, the advantage remains with the American currency, while support for the pound is already partially reflected in expectations for the Bank of England. As long as US yields remain high, the base scenario allows for continued decline in GBP/USD.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1365, SL 1.1385, TP 1.1315

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

EURUSD:

EUR/USD starts the session near a three-month low as the dollar holds near its two-month high. Rising US Treasury yields and expensive oil have intensified concerns about persistent inflation. The market therefore maintains a high probability of further Fed rate hikes, which supports the US dollar ahead of important weekly data.

For the euro, higher energy costs create a mixed impact. It can support inflation and limit the ECB's ability to ease policy, but simultaneously increases corporate expenses and worsens growth prospects for the eurozone. Cautious signals from the European regulator did not give the market grounds to expect tightening as fast as currently priced in by the Fed.

Today, attention will shift to US consumer confidence and job openings data. Weak figures could trigger partial profit-taking on the dollar, but so far, rising US yields and rate expectations carry more weight. After a prolonged series of declines, the potential for movement has become more moderate, but given the current backdrop, the priority remains further weakening of EUR/USD.

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Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

Gold starts the week under pressure from high US Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following the September rate hike, the market is particularly sensitive to PCE inflation and employment data: strong figures can support the dollar and limit the metal's attractiveness.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand and may cap declines, but currently yield to monetary factors. With high yields and hawkish Fed expectations persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards moderate downward pressure on XAUUSD.

Trade Idea: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

#SP500: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

For the US market, the key factor for the week remains the cost of money. US 10-year bond yields remain near multi-year highs, and the market allows for another Fed rate hike. This makes company valuations more sensitive to PCE, employment, and business activity data.

Demand for the technology sector and steady corporate earnings expectations continue to support the index. However, expensive borrowing and the risk of renewed yield growth limit room for a broad rally. Given the current backdrop, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trade Idea: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

#BRENT: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

Brent enters the week with an elevated geopolitical premium after a quick resolution between the US and Iran once again came into question. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist, and new disruptions could quickly intensify supply concerns and support oil prices.

A restraining factor has been the recovery in Middle East exports: Saudi Arabia and other producers' shipments rose noticeably in September. This limits upside potential but does not eliminate the risk of new logistical disruptions. With tensions persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards buying #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.55, SL 157.15, TP 158.35

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

A new supportive factor has emerged for the yen: corporate service prices in Japan rose by 3.7% year-on-year in August, at the fastest pace in over two years. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting showed that some executives advocated for a faster pace of rate hikes. This strengthens expectations of further policy tightening and limits USD/JPY growth.

However, the overall dollar momentum remains stronger. Rising oil prices fuel US inflation concerns, Treasury yields remain elevated, and the market allows for additional Fed steps after the September rate hike. The Bank of Japan has already raised rates to 1.25%, but the interest rate differential is still noticeable, so demand for the dollar can persist even with tighter Japanese policy expectations.

The limitation on USD/JPY purchases remains the readiness of Japanese authorities to respond to excessive yen weakness and coordination with the US on the currency market. At current levels, this risk is less acute than around 160, but it cannot be ignored. Therefore, the base scenario maintains a moderate dollar advantage, but assumes more limited upside potential for the pair compared to the euro and pound.

Trading idea: BUY 157.55, SL 157.15, TP 158.35

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3230, SL 1.3265, TP 1.3150

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD remains near three-month lows after two weeks of pound weakness. The main factor remains the divergence in monetary policy expectations: the Fed recently raised rates and the market allows for further tightening, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged. With high US bond yields, this difference continues to work in favor of the dollar.

The domestic backdrop in the UK does not look unequivocally weak. The GfK consumer confidence index rose in September to its highest level in over two years, and recent data indicated resilience in retail sales and the economy. However, budget risks and rising energy costs continue to exert pressure, and the market has already priced in significant tightening by the Bank of England, which still needs confirmation.

Today, investors will assess the speech by a Bank of England representative against the backdrop of ongoing rate repricing in the US. Stronger UK data could limit the pound's decline, but so far they are not generating momentum capable of reversing the overall demand for the dollar. Under current conditions, the priority remains a cautious scenario for further GBP/USD decline.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1315

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

EUR/USD starts the week near multi-month lows, and the external backdrop remains unfavorable for the euro. The dollar holds near a two-month high: rising oil prices amid US-Iran tensions are once again fueling inflation concerns, and the market continues to price in the possibility of further Fed policy tightening. Higher US bond yields also support demand for the dollar.

The euro's own factors are mixed. The ECB previously raised rates due to an energy shock, and regulator officials warn that pressure from energy prices may persist longer. This limits room for policy easing but simultaneously increases costs for the eurozone economy. Therefore, tighter expectations regarding the ECB have not yet given the euro a sustainable advantage.

During the day, comments from ECB and Fed representatives could adjust expectations for the future interest rate trajectory. Some of the dollar's strengthening is already reflected in quotes, so the potential for EUR/USD decline should be assessed cautiously. Nevertheless, at the start of the session, the US currency retains a stronger fundamental momentum, and the base scenario allows for further pressure on the pair.

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.70, SL 158.35, TP 159.40

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

USD/JPY remains near elevated levels after several sessions of gains. The pair's main support comes from rising US Treasury yields: the yield on 10-year bonds has approached its highest levels since 2007, and the market has strengthened expectations for a new Fed rate hike. Such dynamics are particularly sensitive for the yen, as the yield differential is once again working in favor of the dollar.

The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 1.25% last week, but the decision did not provide sustained strengthening of the yen. Investors focused on the absence of a clear signal regarding further rapid steps and on disagreements within the board. This limits the effect of policy tightening, especially against the backdrop of rising US yields and persistent demand for the US currency.

A restraining factor remains the risk of action by Japanese authorities: following the Bank of Japan meeting, reports emerged about checks on exchange rates, and recent interventions make the market sensitive to yen weakness. Therefore, the upside potential for USD/JPY appears more limited than the dollar's momentum against the euro and pound. With no new confirmed actions from Tokyo yet, the base case still allows for cautious continuation of the pair's growth.

Trading idea: BUY 158.70, SL 158.35, TP 159.40

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3220, SL 1.3260, TP 1.3140

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

The pound gained local support following an unexpected improvement in UK consumer sentiment: the GfK index in September rose to its highest level in over two years. This indicates some resilience among households and complements recent signs of stability in the British economy. However, the signal is currently insufficient to change the overall balance of power in GBP/USD.

The main external factor remains the US dollar. Yields on ten-year Treasury bonds have risen to levels not seen in nearly two decades, and strong US data have strengthened expectations for another Fed rate hike. The Bank of England has kept its rate at 3.75%, and although the market allows for further tightening, high inflation and rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for domestic demand.

The decline in GBP/USD over recent sessions has already been substantial, so continued selling requires confirmation from US statistics. Nevertheless, the recent rise in British consumer confidence does not yet offset the high demand for the dollar and the advantage of US yields. With current Fed expectations unchanged, priority remains with a moderate decline in the pair.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3220, SL 1.3260, TP 1.3140

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1375, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1320

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

The euro begins the session near recent lows following a notable strengthening of the US dollar, driven by rising US Treasury yields and reassessment of Fed expectations. Strong data on jobless claims and new home sales supported the view of US economic resilience, while high oil prices are intensifying inflation risks. This maintains the dollar's advantage ahead of new US data.

The ECB also faces more persistent price pressure from energy, but its signals appear more cautious. Philip Lane expects a longer-lasting inflationary effect from the energy shock, while Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for a balanced approach to further tightening. For EUR/USD, the divergence in rate expectations currently favors the US dollar.

After a prolonged series of declines, much of the dollar's momentum is already priced in, so the potential for further movement should be assessed cautiously. Nevertheless, the recent rise in US yields and expectations of further Fed rate hikes have not yet received a comparable counterbalance from the eurozone. Given this backdrop, the base case allows for further moderate downside in EUR/USD.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1375, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1320

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 158.08, SL 157.78, TP 158.74

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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For USDJPY, dollar support is driven by expectations of further Fed rate hikes following strong US economic activity data. Yields on US Treasury bonds also remain a significant factor in demand for the American currency. Within the current session, the combination of these circumstances maintains prerequisites for moderate pair growth.

The Bank of Japan recently raised its interest rate, but the market deemed its signal regarding future steps insufficiently decisive. September data indicated a slowdown in Japanese industrial growth as well. However, the rate hike in Japan cannot be ignored: if expectations of the regulator's next move strengthen, yen support may become more noticeable even with sustained demand for the dollar.

A separate risk for USDJPY growth relates to actions by Japanese authorities. Reports previously surfaced about the Bank of Japan checking quotes, so the possibility of intervention limits confidence in the continuation of the rally, although it does not inherently imply inevitability. With no confirmed new action yet, the advantage remains with the dollar; stronger official signals or declining US yields could quickly alter the scenario.

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3238, SL 1.3268, TP 1.3172

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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The September survey of British companies showed further growth in business activity, but its pace slowed and came in below expectations. This is an ambiguous result for the pound: economic expansion supports arguments against a near-term rate cut, but does not provide convincing new grounds for currency strengthening during the current session.

The Bank of England retains the possibility of a rate hike, and the market prices in this scenario for November. This factor limits downward pressure on the pound. At the same time, stronger US business activity data and statements from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened expectations for further tightening of US policy. So far, these news items are having a more direct impact on GBPUSD than expectations regarding the Bank of England's future decision.

The pound has already fallen noticeably, so continuation of the move cannot be taken for granted. Nevertheless, the latest UK indicator still does not outweigh the dollar momentum: the base case for the remainder of the session is moderate decline in GBPUSD. A clearer signal from the Bank of England or weakening expectations for Fed rates could shift this balance and support a pair recovery.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1379, SL 1.1404, TP 1.1324

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The main factor for the pair remains the revision of Fed rate expectations. Stronger-than-expected US business activity data and statements from regulator representatives supported the probability of further rate hikes. This maintains demand for the dollar, although a significant part of its strengthening has already occurred, and the potential for EURUSD decline requires careful assessment.

The euro has its own support: September business activity indicators in the Eurozone turned out to be strong, and ECB representatives allow for further policy tightening. Therefore, the dollar's advantage does not look unconditional. At the same time, high energy costs may restrain regional economic growth, and the interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone still favors the dollar.

For the current session, the American factor looks more significant than the positive Eurozone data, so the base scenario assumes a moderate continuation of the EURUSD decline. This could change with further strengthening of ECB rate expectations or weakening dollar demand. After the pair's already completed drop, it is especially important that new momentum is confirmed by fresh data, not just previous market reactions.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1379, SL 1.1404, TP 1.1324

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.58, SL 157.33, TP 158.13

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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The yen remains under pressure even after the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan. For the current session, the key factor is the divergence in expectations regarding future policy between the two regulators: in the US, there is discussion about another rate hike, while the already implemented Japanese decision has not yet provided stable support for the yen.

The dollar's position may be tested by the release of preliminary US business activity data. If they indicate sustained demand, it will be easier for the market to maintain expectations of tight Fed policy. Conversely, weak results could reduce the advantage of the US currency through revised rate and yield expectations.

The base scenario allows for moderate USDJPY growth, as the dollar retains an interest rate advantage. However, potential reactions from Japanese authorities to yen weakness limit confidence in prolonged growth. Fresh official signals or a noticeable drop in US yields would require reconsidering the buy idea.

Trading idea: BUY 157.58, SL 157.33, TP 158.13

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3323, SL 1.3353, TP 1.3251

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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For the pound, the key question today is the state of the British economy after the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. Upcoming preliminary business activity indicators will help assess how resilient domestic demand is against the backdrop of expensive energy. Until their publication, the British currency lacks a confirmed new impulse capable of outweighing the dollar.

The decline in oil prices somewhat alleviates concerns about the UK's energy import costs. At the same time, it may reduce the need for further rate hikes by the Bank of England. Therefore, improved supply conditions alone do not provide clear support for the pound.

The US dollar is supported by Fed concerns about inflation and expectations of further policy tightening. As long as British data do not change the comparative assessment of the two currencies, GBPUSD remains vulnerable to downside risks. Significantly stronger business activity data would become the main risk to this scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3323, SL 1.3353, TP 1.3251

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1427, SL 1.1452, TP 1.1367

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The dollar begins the session with an advantage: Fed representatives have again emphasized the resilience of inflationary pressures, and the market allows for another rate hike. For EURUSD today, it is more important whether preliminary data on business activity in the eurozone will confirm the economy's ability to withstand high energy prices.

The recent ECB rate hike supports the euro through yield expectations. However, deteriorating consumer sentiment shows the other side of the energy shock: rising expenses could weaken demand. Until business activity data are published, there is no basis to consider this risk overcome.

The dollar factor remains stronger than local support for the euro within the current session. With ongoing Fed expectations, the base scenario assumes further moderate decline in EURUSD. Strong eurozone indicators could change this assessment.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1427, SL 1.1452, TP 1.1367

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: BUY 157.35, SL 156.95, TP 158.35

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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The yen remains under pressure, although the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25%. The decision was accompanied by disagreements among regulators and did not give the market confidence in a rapid continuation of tightening policy. As a result, traders once again focused on the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan, supporting USD/JPY.

The US dollar is being strengthened by expectations of another Fed rate hike following the September decision. The probability of a new move in October has already increased, as the regulator continues to focus primarily on inflation risks. Even the decline in US Treasury yields has not yet changed the overall advantage of the dollar over the yen in carry trades.

The upside for the pair is limited by the risk of action from Japanese authorities: recent checks on currency quotes indicate heightened attention to yen weakness. However, without confirmed intervention, this factor rather dampens the pace of movement than reversing it. With the divergence in Fed and BoJ policies remaining, the main scenario remains moderate growth for USD/JPY.

Trading idea: BUY 157.35, SL 156.95, TP 158.35

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Fundamental Analysis - GBPUSD: SELL 1.3370, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3290

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

GBPUSD:

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The pound remains near seven-week lows against the dollar following central bank decisions. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, while the Federal Reserve raised them and signaled further tightening. This divergence supports the US currency, despite expectations of a potential UK rate hike later this year.

The pound's position is slightly bolstered by strong retail sales data and growth in the British economy in July. Falling oil prices also reduce the risk of renewed imported inflation acceleration. However, these factors could simultaneously weaken the need for an urgent rate hike by the Bank of England, so their impact on the British currency remains ambiguous.

The main driver of the current session is expectations of further Fed action, while UK statistics do not provide sufficient grounds for independent sterling strength. Before the release of September business activity indices, the market lacks new confirmations of the resilience of the UK economy. With demand for the dollar remaining the baseline scenario, the base case for GBP/USD remains downside.

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Fundamental Analysis - EURUSD: SELL 1.1470, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1395

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

EURUSD:

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The US dollar maintains its advantage after the Fed's September rate hike. Market participants are already pricing in the likelihood of another regulatory step in October, as inflationary pressure remains elevated. Expectations of further policy tightening keep the dollar index near a seven-week high and limit the recovery of EUR/USD.

The euro receives some support from the ECB's recent rate hike and falling oil prices. Cheaper energy reduces inflationary and economic risks for the eurozone, but this is not yet enough for sustainable strengthening of the single currency. Political uncertainty in Germany and budget issues in France remain additional restraining factors.

Within the current session, the difference in expectations regarding future regulatory actions remains in favor of the dollar. The upcoming speech by Fed representatives could strengthen this factor if they confirm the need to continue fighting inflation. For now, US monetary policy appears to be a more convincing driver, with priority remaining for a decline in EUR/USD.

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Weekly analytics- Fundamental Analysis - Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

XAUUSD: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

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The main factor for gold this week remains the Fed's tightening policy. After raising the rate to 3.75–4.00%, the market anticipates further regulatory steps, and the yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds remains around 5%. High yields on interest-rate instruments limit the attractiveness of gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and can restrain XAUUSD from falling. However, as long as inflation risks support expectations of further rate hikes, the monetary-fiscal factor remains more significant. Against this backdrop, the baseline weekly scenario suggests downward pressure on gold.

Trading idea: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

#SP500: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

The US stock market begins the week between the resilience of the technology sector and rising borrowing costs. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are assessing the probability of further policy tightening, while Treasury bond yields remain high. This creates pressure on company valuations and limits the potential of the broad market.

Demand for tech stocks and expectations of stable corporate earnings are currently mitigating this effect. Negotiations between the US and China could also support sentiment. Nevertheless, with yields remaining at elevated levels, the market's sensitivity to capital costs stays high, so the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

#BRENT: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

Brent starts the week lower amid signs of recovering supplies from Saudi Arabia and hopes for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Saudi export flows increased in September, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain steady. This reduces the immediate risk premium for supply disruptions.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty: new attacks could quickly revive concerns about supply, and the IEA points to ongoing tension in the oil balance. Yet, given the current recovery of flows and sustained diplomatic expectations, the baseline weekly scenario allows for further declines in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

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Fundamental Analysis - USDJPY: SELL 156.70, SL 157.25, TP 155.45

info@freshforex.com (David Johnson) — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:00:00 +0200

USDJPY:

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For the yen, the main factor of the current session is not only the interest rate differential but also the increased risk of actions by Japanese authorities. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25% on September 18, however, the yen did not receive sustained support after the decision due to disagreements within the board and cautious signals about further steps. This previously maintained the dollar's advantage.

The situation changed after reports of a check on currency quotes by Japanese authorities, which the market usually views as a possible preliminary step before intervention. Against the backdrop of reduced liquidity due to the weekend in Japan, such a factor can significantly increase USD/JPY sensitivity to official signals and limit dollar purchases in the current session.

The Fed remains more hawkish than the Bank of Japan, and the interest rate differential still supports the dollar in the medium term. However, after the pair's rise in previous days, part of this advantage has already been reflected in the price, while the risk of intervention has become a fresh local factor. Therefore, for today's horizon, the priority shifts in favor of a decline in USD/JPY.

Trading idea: SELL 156.70, SL 157.25, TP 155.45

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