Forecast for the week August 7 through August 11:
At the beginning of the week gold rates fall may be expected, while US dollar strengthens. After Friday Non-Farm, USDX rose by 0.87%, and gold dropped by 0.84%. Investors are taking profit on short US dollar positions, for this reason greenback competitors are weakening. Based on CFTC reports we can conclude that investors have positive opinion about gold. Over the last week net speculative positions increased by 38.9 thousand contracts, by 8.2 thousand more than on the previous week. Growth rate is accelerating and we are expecting another XAU/USD rise. Trading signals: Buy 1255/1246 and take profit 1270.
At the beginning of the week moderate decline may be expected due to US dollar growth. Oil and greenback traditionally go in different directions, and considering USDX correction oil drop is likely. This drop is likely to be a short-term one, as investors are anticipating oil uptrend to continue. In August, as usually, we are observing boosted oil products demand due to vacations season, that will support oil rates. Speculators are also ramping up long oil positions on US futures market. Over the last week net speculative positions on crude oil increased by 63.5 thousand contracts, by 36.7 thousand contracts more than the previous week. Buy positions reached a five-month maximum. Trading signals: Buy 51,90/50,42 and take profit 53,40.
During this week I expect quotes growth to the area of psychological level at 2500. Positive July employment data indicates that in the third quarter of this year the majority of corporations will release strong financial results. This week Alibaba earnings report on August 9 and NVIDIA earnings report on August 10 are worth attention. Last year Alibaba eliminated many local offline retailers in USA. Americans eagerly order goods via the Internet and less frequently visit shops. The market is anticipating positive release, for this reason we may expect strong Alibaba shares growth. Trading signals: Buy 2477/2465 and take profit 2500.