26 September 2014, EUR/USD
The European statistics is still disappointing the traders. Against this background the bulls have very little chances for the upward trend development. The August release for the change to M3 monetary aggregate is expected in the euro area. The Wall Street economists expect the rate growth to the level of 1.8% and in general we can agree with them, as the ECB easy monetary policy increased the money supply.
We expect the US order report for consumer durables and the data release that will possibly be better than the consensus -forecast against the consumer confidence increase. The interview with the European Central Bank head has caused the euro fall. As a result, the EUR/USD has broken through the support level of 1.2800 and fallen to the level of 1.2730.
The support levels are 1.2710 - 1.2730, and the resistance levels are 1.2800 - 1.2820.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The pair is heavily oversold. We protect pullback sales with a protective order. We can consider small buying orders with the expectation for an upward correction.
The pound consolidates around the 63rd figure. We expect Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, will give moderately positive comments. The Britain unemployment is slowly reducing and is approaching the target level of 6%. The pound will be supported by the US positive data for consumer durables orders. The GBP/USD has not overcome the resistance level of 1.6370. The pair came under pressure, which led to 1.6300. The support now is at the 63rd figure, and the bears tested the level of 1.6300.
The support levels are 1.6280 - 1.6300, and the resistance levels are 1.6370 - 1.6390.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
The pound tries to get back above the breakthrough. For easing the downward pressure it is necessary to overcome the resistance level of 1.6450. Until then, the downside risks to 1.6200-1.6180 will be preserved.
After the insignificant correction the upward trend is rapidly growing. The bulls returned back to the American stock market which will support the demand for corporate bonds in the world and it is a positive factor for the dollar/yen quotations growth. The US order release for consumer durables can also surprise us.
The dollar/yen is pushed away from the support level 108.70 and rose to 109.20. The growth was not continued and the pair fell back to the support level of 108.70.
The support levels: 108.50-108.70, and the resistance levels: 109.20-109.40.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The dollar is heavily overbought which significantly increases the correction risks. However, we should not exclude the level of 110.00 testing. The loss of support about 108.40-108.00 will weaken the upward impulse.