05 June 2014, EUR/USD
All important macroeconomic reports the ECB received and market participants took a break till June 5 - the day of monetary regulator meeting announcement.
As we pointed out earlier in our surveys - the euro/dollar looks like a short-term oversold and we should expect the correction to 37 figures. If you look at the 4 -hour candle - a figure formed a "double bottom" and if the mark 1.3649 is broken the movement towards 1.3710 will be possible.
EUR/USD is trading above 1.3600, but the rate sharply retreated from session highs at 1.3650.
The support levels are 1.3590- 1.3600, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3670.
MACD is in negative territory. The histogram is descending.
We still expect a negative outlook the euro may test 1.3545 in the short term, but, as already mentioned, the results of the European Central Bank meeting and Mario Draghi's press conference can radically change the situation.
Two previous reports from Markit Economics came in the negative area and if today we see again the data worse than market expectations the pair may get under a wave of sales. Monitor the cross - EUR/GBP trading dynamics, the growth above the resistance level 0.8152 can cheer "bears" to open short positions. Nevertheless, we do not believe in the strong fall as there are no drivers to exit the range 1.6710 - 1.6790 and we can expect that the trade will be in the designated area.
The support levels are 1.6700 - 1.6730, and the resistance levels are 1.67700 - 1.6800.
MACD histogram is lowering thus giving a sell signal.
In general good statistics does not support the pound any more which suggests that it may fall below the above minimums. The rising above 1.6782 will weaken the "bearish" pressure.
According to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it is still possible that the conservation measures to stimulate the economy by the Bank of Japan in the long run will allow Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to complete his program to restore the country's economy.
Short-term long positions still look attractive and after a correction at the world's leading stock markets we expect the growth continuation.
The support levels: 120.30-102.40, and the resistance levels: 102.70 – 102.80.
The MACD is above the zero line and growing confirming the current growth.
If the pair breaks 102.80 the probability of the uptrend resumption will become real. The minimum bulls' target is the 104th figure. Falling below the 102nd will signal the resumption of a downward correction.