01 April 2014, EUR/USD
The new high marks at 1.3966, reached on March 13, were not retested neither the week before, nor the last. Instead, the pair declined towards the support level 1.3720, while the new peaks were getting lower and lower. Thus, the level 1.3876 became the highest one the last week which the “bulls” could not break. The support 1.3720 was broke but, “bears” could not get consolidate below as after testing 1.3704, the euro rebounded to 1.3772.
The support levels: 1.3700 - 1.3682, and the resistance levels: 1.3810 – 1.3830.
MACD is pointing up, indicating the current corrective movement.
The lowering peak breakdown series suggest ongoing support and further downward correction towards 1.3630 level. The “bearish” movement can be weakened if the pair grows above the 38th figure.
In general the pair looks pretty good. The pair found a support around 1.6465 last week, from which the confidence grew up to 1.6646, and after it bounced up to 1.6651. The rollback was capped at 1.6598, which could provide a firm support. Thus, the “bears” failed to consolidate below the 100-day moving average that is at 1.6493.
The support level is 1.6600 and the resistance level 1.6660.
MACD turned down showing the current downward price movement.
The pair could go back and gain a foothold above the 66th figure. This increases the growth risks to 1.6800, while the “bulls” still have to go through a series of resistances. The fall below 1.6598 would weaken the “bullish” power, and could mean the resumption of a downward correction.
The dollar/yen was traded in a narrow range bound by 102.64 and 102.09. Later, the lower boundary was broken, and the “bears” tested the mark 101.72. Here the pair was sold, which led to an increase to the resistance level 102.55, its breakdown and testing 103rd figures, where the 100 -day MA is.
The support levels: 102.60 - 102.45 and the resistance levels: 103.00 - 103.20.
MACD is growing.
The current growth significantly weakens the “bearish” power, but as long as the pair is not fixed above the 103rd figures, the falling risks are preserved. The immediate support is located at the level 102.55 now, its loss would lead to a fall down to 102.00-101.59.